AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The rouble fell to as low as 119 per dollar in early trading on Monday, hurtling past a previous low of 90 roubles per dollar. Western powers blocked big Russian banks from using the global SWIFT payment system. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) responded by announcing measures to stabilize domestic markets and the rouble, while the central bank itself was slapped with restrictive measures to prevent it from deploying its international reserves and undermining the sanctions. Putin also put Russia's "deterrence forces" on high alert, which added to the tensions considering that the forces wield nuclear weapons. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has upended several popular trades, inflicting heavy losses on investors bullish on European stocks and the euro and also those bearish on the Japanese yen and government debt. The view before the aggression was that global economic recovery was chugging along, company earnings were robust and central banks, facing rising inflation, were on course to raise interest rates several times this year. But while the spiking geopolitical tensions continue to fan inflationary pressures via the oil channel, they are undermining some of the biggest consensus trades in markets. Some of the more entrenched bets will come under further pressure if the conflict threatens the broader growth outlook, Hurd predicted.
  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, while the Russian rouble fell to a record low. Tensions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to rise, with Western nations announcing fresh sanctions against Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin putting nuclear-armed forces on high alert. The extent of the dollar's gains would depend on any further leap in volatility, the size of the selloff in global equities, and assessment of central bank's tightening programs. High energy prices were also capping the yen, given Japan imports the bulk of its energy requirements, she added. Investors are now betting that there is a 95% chance of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets in March 2022, according to CME's Fedwatch tool. Expectation is also growing that the Ukrainian conflict will deter the European Central Bank from making any strong hawkish moves. Convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve would go big and fast with interest rate hikes in coming months, traders had piled on bets against Treasuries and most major bond markets. Those bets are being rapidly unwound amid the dash for safe trades. Bets of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed next month have melted by half from a week earlier, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool, while expectations of ECB rate hikes have also dropped.
  • The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.01% to 115.55. Japan released data, including industrial production month-on-month and retail sales year-on-year for January 2022, earlier in the day. The yen's rise to a three-week high on Thursday would have dealt a blow to those positions. The premise that the Bank of Japan would lag global counterparts in tightening policy had made the Japanese yen every currency trader's preferred short -- hedge funds' net short bets on the yen were just below three-year highs, according to data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
  • Gold was up Monday morning in Asia, rising more than 1% and set for its best monthly gain in nine. Investors digested the new, tough sanctions doled out by Western countries in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Russian President Vladimir Putin put his country's nuclear deterrent on high alert. The U.S. warned that Putin was escalating the war with "dangerous rhetoric.” Signs are emerging that the invasion is getting bogged down, with the expected quick victories replaced by a stronger-than-anticipated Western response. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) said on Sunday said it would resume buying gold on the domestic market when markets open later in the day. The central bank is also taking measures to try and ensure the country’s financial stability.
  • Oil prices jumped on Monday on escalating sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which in turn led President Vladimir Putin to put his country's nuclear deterrent on high alert. Brent jumped back above $100 a barrel, initially surging more than $7, as the nuclear alert and bank payment constraints heightened fears that oil shipments from the world's second-largest producer could be disrupted. Russia accounts for about 10% of global oil supply. Putin raised the stakes on Sunday, ordering Russia's "deterrence forces" - which wield nuclear weapons - onto high alert, citing aggressive statements by NATO leaders and the range of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation. The market steadied on hopes for talks between Russia and Ukraine at a venue on the Belarusian border on Monday, the first negotiations since Russia invaded its neighbour last week. Amid the war in Ukraine, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and allies - together called OPEC+ - are due to meet on March 2. The group is expected to stick to plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in April. Ahead of the meeting, OPEC+ revised down its forecast for the oil market surplus for 2022 by about 200,000 bpd to 1.1 million bpd, underscoring market tightness.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,909-1,914 1,924 1,934-1,950
Silver-XAG 24.80-25.40 25.70 26.00-26.40
Crude Oil 95.90-96.80 97.50 98.40-100.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1205 1.1240 1.1270-1.1305
GBP/USD 1.3410-1.3500 1.3570 1.3590-1.3640
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,900-1,889 1,876 1,870-1,861
Silver-XAG 24.30-23.90 23.40 22.90-22.50
Crude Oil 95.00-94.30 93.90 93.10-92.50
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1105 1.1090 1.1050-1.1011
GBP/USD 1.3350-1.3290 1.3250 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (28th February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1921.53/oz and low of US$1883.00/oz. Gold down 0.758% at US$1889.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1924-1976 keeping stop loss closing above 1976, targeting 1914-1900 and 1890-1876. Buy in between 1909-1876 with risk below 1876, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,900-1,889
S2     1,876
S3     1,870-1,861
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,909-1,914
R2     1,924
R3     1,934-1,950

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.313

Buy
20-DMA   1869.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1841.151869.95

Buy
100-DMA   1823.32 Buy
200-DMA   1812.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.541 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.48/oz and low of US$23.85/oz settled up by 0.231% at US$24.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.30-22.90, targeting 24.80-25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.80-26.75 with stop loss above 26.75; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.30-23.90
S2     23.40
S3     22.90-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.80-25.40
R2     25.70
R3     26.00-26.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US95.02/bbl, intraday low of US$89.54/bbl and settled down by 1.532% to close at US$91.36/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable93.90 and 93.10-92.50-91.90. Buy above 95.00-91.50 with risk daily closing below 95.00 and targeting 95.90-96.90-97.50 and 98.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 95.90-100.0 with stop loss at 100.00; targeting 95.00-94.30-.40-100.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     95.00-94.30
S2     93.90
S3     93.10-92.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     95.90-96.80
R2     97.50
R3     98.40-100.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.814 Sell
20-DMA   90.03 Buy
50-DMA   85.50 Buy
100-DMA   81.43 Buy
200-DMA   75.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1165/EUR, high of US$1.1272/EUR and settled the day up by 0.690% to close at US$1.1267/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1180-1.1470, targeting 1.1150-1.1105-1.1090 and 1.1050-1.1010 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1150-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010, targeting 1.1180-1.1205-1.1270 and 1.1305-1.1485-1.1525.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1150-1.1105
S2     1.1090
S3     1.1050-1.1011

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1205
R2     1.1240
R3     1.1270-1.1305

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3365/GBP, high of US$1.3438/GBP and settled the day up by 0.292% to close at US$1.3411/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3200 with target 1.3410-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3590-1.3640-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3410-1.3840 with targets at 1.3340-1.3285-1.3250 and 1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3350-1.3290
S2     1.3250
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3410-1.3500
R2     1.3570
R3     1.3590-1.3640

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY115.41/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.75/USD and settled the day up 0.118% at JPY115.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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