Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia. The rouble steadied somewhat after crashing to a record low, while the safe-haven yen steadied after its biggest rallies in almost seven weeks. However, investors’ focus remains on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Currency markets calmed down somewhat after Russian and Ukrainian officials held the first round of ceasefire talks. The rouble also regained some of its dramatic losses earlier in the week, when it plunged as much as 30%. However, the pressure on Russia remains with the West slapping sanctions and cutting some Russian banks from the global SWIFT network. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) implemented an emergency interest rate hike of 20% and other measures. The rouble last traded at 102. The instability will keep safe-haven currencies bid and euro under pressure, while the Australian dollar has so far held up due to higher commodity prices and Australia's geographic distance from the conflict, the note added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he's not ruling out a half point move, although he favors a quarter point increase, in the first comments by a Fed official since the conflict.
• The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.03% to 6.3115. Chinese data released earlier in the day showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for February was 50.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.6 and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4.
• The rouble tried to regain some stability on Tuesday after its crash to an all-time low, while the U.S. dollar resumed its rise against major peers as traders paused for breath amid the fast-moving Ukraine crisis. A modicum of calm has returned to currency markets since officials from Russia and Ukraine held an initial round of ceasefire talks overnight, four days after Russia invaded its neighbour, allowing some of the big moves from the start of the week to retrace after many positions were cleared out. The rouble started the week in dramatic circumstance, plunging as much as 30% to a record 120 per dollar after Western countries and their allies slapped Russia with new sanctions including cutting off some banks from the SWIFT financial network. The currency recovered somewhat after an emergency rate hike and other urgent measures adopted by the Russian central bank, and last traded flat at 101.
• Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, easing after strong performances over the last few sessions. The start of ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials and Western countries slapping even more sanctions against Russia dampened the demand for the safe-haven yellow metal. Russian and Ukrainian officials began ceasefire talks near the Belarusian border four days after Russia invaded its neighbor. However, there are no signs that Russia intends to stop the invasion. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) hiked its key policy rate to 20% on Monday and introduced some capital controls. However, governor Elvira Nabiullina said sanctions had prevented the central bank from selling foreign currency to prop up the rouble.
• Oil prices surged on Tuesday as concerns over potential supply disruptions amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine outweighed talk of a coordinated global release of crude stocks to calm markets. Concerns over tightening supplies drove prices higher as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on Monday ended with officials heading back to capitals for further consultation, suggesting conflict resolution is not imminent. Major oil and gas companies, including BP (NYSE:BP) and Shell (LON:RDSa), have announced plans to exit Russian operations and joint ventures Buyers of Russian oil are facing difficulty over payments and vessel availability as Western sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine take hold. Meanwhile, Asia's factories sustained a brisk recovery in February amid signs the coronavirus pandemic was having less of an impact of business, implying an uptick in oil demand. Still, the market mood was helped by the United States and allies discussing a coordinated release of crude stocks to mitigate supply disruption. That release could tally up to between 60 million and 70 million barrels, media outlets reported. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to hold an extraordinary ministerial meeting on Tuesday to discuss what role its members can play in stabilising oil markets. Russia, which calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation", exports some 4 million to 5 million barrels per day of crude oil, and 2 million to 3 million barrels per day of refined products. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers - including Russia - will also meet on Wednesday and are anticipated to maintain a gradual increase to supplies.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1930.76/oz and low of US$1890.83/oz. Gold down 0.738% at US$1908.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1924-1976 keeping stop loss closing above 1976, targeting 1914-1900 and 1890-1876. Buy in between 1909-1876 with risk below 1876, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.77/oz and low of US$24.08/oz settled down by 0.804% at US$24.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.30-22.90, targeting 24.80-25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.80-26.75 with stop loss above 26.75; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US98.26/bbl, intraday low of US$93.70/bbl and settled up by 0.394% to close at US$95.00/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 95.90-100.0 with stop loss at 100.00; targeting 95.00-94.30-93.90 and 93.10-92.50-91.90. Buy above 95.00-91.50 with risk daily closing below 95.00 and targeting 95.90-96.90-97.50 and 98.40-100.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1119/EUR, high of US$1.1246/EUR and settled the day up by 0.856% to close at US$1.1216/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1205-1.1470, targeting 1.1150-1.1105-1.1090 and 1.1050-1.1010 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1180-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010, targeting 1.1180-1.1205-1.1270 and 1.1305-1.1485-1.1525.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3308/GBP, high of US$1.3431/GBP and settled the day up by 0.809% to close at US$1.3416/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3410-1.3200 with target 1.3410-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3590-1.3640-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3500-1.3840 with targets at 1.3340-1.3285-1.3250 and 1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY114.85/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.76/USD and settled the day down 0.175% at JPY114.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.70-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.