AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The rouble weakened past 100 to the dollar on Wednesday, heading back to record lows, and the stock market remained closed as Russia's financial system staggered under the weight of Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. For the third day in a row, the rouble was weaker outside Russia, trading at 112 to the dollar on the EBS electronic trading platform, but still off the all-time low of 120 hit on Monday. The rouble has tumbled since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, at one point losing a third of its value in Moscow trading. Russia addressed the crisis with a sharp interest rate hike to 20%, telling companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency revenues on the domestic market as the central bank stopped its own FX interventions due to sanctions that targeted Russia's state reserves. Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. As households and businesses in Russia rushed to convert the falling rouble into foreign currency, banks raised rates for foreign currency deposits. Russia's largest lender Sberbank is offering to pay 4% on deposits of up to $1,000, while the largest private lender Alfa Bank is offering 8% on three-month dollar deposits. The weak rouble will hit living standards in Russia and fan already high inflation, while Western sanctions are expected to create shortages of essential goods and services such as cars or flights.
  • The U.S. dollar pushed higher in early European trade Wednesday, with the euro under pressure, with the intensifying conflict in Ukraine prompting demand for the world’s reserve currency Russian forces have intensified the bombardment of Ukrainian cities, warning residents of Kyiv to leave as a miles-long convoy of armored vehicles draws near to the capital. This is resulting in traders seeking out the dollar, the globe’s reserve currency, main safe haven, and most liquid asset.
  • The euro was under pressure on Wednesday as intensifying Russian bombardment of Ukraine's cities and surging oil prices raised investors' concerns about a hit to Europe's economy and growth. The common currency briefly fell below support to touch a 21-month low of $1.1090 overnight, before recovering a slightly to last trade at $1.1114. It’s the euro that is being hit hardest as the severe sanctions on Russia and surging oil prices raised concerns about a hit to Europe's economy and growth. Traders will look to the release of Eurozone CPI data later in the session, with the European Central Bank having to balance between surging inflation and the potential for a hefty hit to growth in the region on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European inflation data is due at 1000 GMT. A speech at 1600 GMT from the European Central Bank chief economist, Philip Lane, will also be closely watched for insight into policymakers thinking about the economic damage from the Ukraine crisis. Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro will speak about the British economic outlook at 1800 GMT.
  • Markets were largely unmoved by U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. Biden touched on the subject of America's recent troubles with high inflation, but the solutions he offered were long term. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on matters economic before the House Committee on Financial Services, with investors keen to know his thoughts about the potential fallout from the conflict in Ukraine, given the central bank is widely expected to lift interest rates later this month to curb soaring inflation.
  • Oil prices surged on Wednesday as supply disruption fears mounted following hefty sanctions on Russian banks amid the intensifying Ukraine conflict, while traders scrambled to seek alternative oil sources in an already tight market. The backwardation in the Brent futures contract, when prompt prices exceed later dated supply, surged to the highest ever according to data going back to 2004. The premium of the first-month Brent future to the sixth-month contract rose to as much as $18.55 a barrel. Russian oil exports account for around 8% of global supply. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) on Tuesday said it would exit Russia oil and gas operations as a result of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The decision will see the firm pull out of managing large production facilities on Sakhalin Island in Russia's Far East. At the same time, while Western powers have not imposed sanctions on energy exports directly, U.S. traders at hubs in New York and the U.S. Gulf are shunning Russian crude U.S. President Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that the Russian leader "has no idea what's coming" in a State of the Union speech dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. State-run Indian refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp is seeking extra oil from Middle Eastern producers for April, fearing Western sanctions against Russia could hit deliveries of Urals crude.
  • Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may sharply hike prices of crude for Asia in April, trade sources said, with differentials for most grades hitting all-time highs as global supplies tighten over financing and shipping issues from sanctions on Russia A coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil by International Energy Agency member countries agreed on Tuesday put a lid on market gains, but analysts said that would only provide temporary relief on the supply front. Commercial oil stockpiles are at their lowest since 2014, the IEA said. Against that backdrop, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, together known as OPEC+, are due to meet on Wednesday, where they are expected to stick to plans to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply each month. Underscoring tightness in the market, the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 25. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release weekly data on Wednesday, with analysts polled by Reuters expecting a crude inventory build of 2.7 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
2nd March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,950-1,959 1,974 1,984-2,005
Silver-XAG 25.40-25.70 26.00 26.40-27.00
Crude Oil 109.00-110.00 110.80 111.50-112.20
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1205 1.1240 1.1270-1.1305
GBP/USD 1.3350-1.3410 1.3500 1.3550-1.3590
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
2nd March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,934-1,924 1,914 1,909-1,900
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.90 23.40-22.90
Crude Oil 107.90-107.10 106.60 106.00-105.20
EURO/USD 1.1105 1.1090 1.1050-1.1011
GBP/USD ¬1.3290-1.3250 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100
USD/JPY 114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (2nd March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1950.14/oz and low of US$1901.32/oz. Gold % at US$1944.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1950-2005 keeping stop loss closing above 2005, targeting 1934-1924-1914 and 1900-1890-1876. Buy in between 1934-1900 with risk below 1890, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,934-1,924
S2     1,914
S3     1,909-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,950-1,959
R2     1,974
R3     1,984-2,005

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.313

Buy
20-DMA   1869.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1841.15

Buy
100-DMA   1823.32 Buy
200-DMA   1812.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.541 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.53/oz and low of US$24.26/oz settled up by 3.875% at US$25.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-26.90 with stop loss above 26.90; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.90
S3     23.40-22.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-25.70
R2     26.00
R3     26.40-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US105.15/bbl, intraday low of US$94/bbl and settled up by 0.394% to close at US$104.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 109.00-112.20 with stop loss at 112.20; targeting 107.90-107.10-106.60 and 106.00-105.20. Buy above 107.90-105.20 with risk daily closing below 105.20 and targeting 109.00-110.00-110.80 and 111.50-112.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.90-107.10
S2     106.60
S3     106.00-105.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     109.00-110.00
R2     110.80
R3     111.50-112.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.814 Sell
20-DMA   90.03 Buy
50-DMA   85.50 Buy
100-DMA   81.43 Buy
200-DMA   75.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1088/EUR, high of US$1.1232/EUR and settled the day up by 0.856% to close at US$1.1116/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1150-1.1470, targeting 1.1150-1.1105-1.1090 and 1.1050-1.1010 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1080-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010, targeting 1.1180-1.1205-1.1270 and 1.1305-1.1485-1.1525.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1105
S2     1.1090
S3     1.1050-1.1011

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1205
R2     1.1240
R3     1.1270-1.1305

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3301/GBP, high of US$1.3437/GBP and settled the day down by % to close at US$1.3318/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3290-1.3100 with target 1.3350-1.3410-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3590-1.3640 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3350-1.3840 with targets at 1.3285-1.3250 and 1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     ¬1.3290-1.3250
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3150-1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3350-1.3410
R2     1.3500
R3     1.3550-1.3590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.69/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.28/USD and settled the day down 0.081% at JPY114.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.70-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING