AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Russian rouble and other assets. The Russian currency hit a record low of 100 per dollar in Moscow on Wednesday, before trading a little firmer at 97.999 to the dollar in interbank trade outside Russia. Russian troops were in the centre of the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Kherson on Thursday, though Ukrainian officials said their forces were continuing to defend the city. Other cities including Ukraine's second-biggest city, Kharkiv, The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia. The euro was near a 21-month low over worries that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will hurt Europe’s economy, while commodity currencies were at multi-week highs as export prices surged. Across the Atlantic, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank would begin "carefully" hiking interest rates in March but was ready to move more aggressively if needed. The comments were widely in line with investor expectations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank would begin "carefully" raising interest rates this month, but was ready to move more aggressively if needed - more or less the scenario traders have priced in.
  • The euro managed to recover to $1.1111 in early Asian trading from its overnight low of $1.1058, the lowest since May 2020. However, it is down 1.4% for the week to date and is set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss against the dollar. Meanwhile, Europe’s consumer price index (CPI) hit a record 5.8% year-on-year in February 2022, according to data released on Wednesday. The European Central Bank will also release the minutes from its February meeting later in the day. Other Eastern European currencies have also taken a hit, with the Hungarian forint hitting record lows on the dollar and the euro overnight and the Polish zloty falling to a two-decade low. Euro zone inflation hit a record high of 5.8% last month, overnight data showed, surpassing expectations and prompting warnings from policymakers about stagflation. The euro was pinned near a 21-month low on Thursday by worries that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will hurt European growth, while commodity currencies hit multi-week highs as export prices surged.
  • The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, with Kharkiv, the latter’s second-largest city, suffering heavy bombardment on Wednesday. Russian forces have also reportedly captured the Black Sea port of Kherson. A total of 141 United Nations members passed a resolution condemning the invasion. Western sanctions have also impacted the continued to face shelling and bombing. A U.N. resolution reprimanding Moscow was supported by 141 of the assembly's 193 members. Heavy sanctions have hammered Russian assets and the rouble, which touched a record low of 110 per dollar in Moscow on Wednesday. The rouble was a little firmer at 98 to the dollar in interbank trade outside Russia.
  • Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $118 a barrel as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries, while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows. The gains followed the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil refining sector that raised concerns that Russian oil and gas exports could be targeted next. So far, Washington has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports as the Biden administration weighs the impacts on global oil markets and U.S. energy prices Russia is the world's No. 3 oil producer and the largest exporter of oil to global markets, according to the International Energy Agency. Russian crude and oil products exports reached 7.8 million barrels per day in December, the agency said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Tehran on Saturday, Iranian news agency Nournews reported, suggesting this could help pave the way to a revival of Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement with major powers. Meanwhile, U.S. oil inventories continued to decline. Tanks at the key Cushing, Oklahoma crude hub were at their lowest since 2018, while U.S. strategic reserves dropped to a near 20-year low - and that was before another release announced by the White House on Tuesday in tandem with other industrialised nations.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU ,934-1,950 1,959 1,974-1,984
Silver-XAG 25.40-25.70 26.00 26.40-27.00
Crude Oil 114.00-115.30 115.90 116.50-117.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1205 1.1240 1.1270-1.1305
GBP/USD 1.3410-1.3500 1.3550 1.3590-1.3650
USD/JPY 116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,924 1,914 1,909-1,900
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.90 23.40-22.90
Crude Oil 112.20-111.50 110.80 110.00-109.00
EURO/USD 1.1105 1.1090 1.1050-1.1011
GBP/USD ¬1.3350-1.3290 1.3250 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 115.50-114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1947.83/oz and low of US$1913.86/oz. Gold 0.805% at US$1928.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1934-2005 keeping stop loss closing above 2005, targeting 1924-1914 and 1900-1890-1876. Buy in between 1934-1900 with risk below 1890, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,924
S2     1,914
S3     1,909-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     ,934-1,950
R2     1,959
R3     1,974-1,984

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.313

Buy
20-DMA   1869.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1841.15

Buy
100-DMA   1823.32 Buy
200-DMA   1812.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.541 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.41/oz and low of US$24.84/oz settled down by 0.0514% at US$25.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-26.90 with stop loss above 26.90; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.90
S3     23.40-22.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-25.70
R2     26.00
R3     26.40-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US110.79/bbl, intraday low of US$103.64/bbl and settled up by 3.936% to close at US$109.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 114.00-117.20 with stop loss at 117.20; targeting 112.20-115.50-110.80 and 110.00-109.00. Buy above 112.20-109.00 with risk daily closing below 109.00 and targeting 114.00-115.30-115.90 and 116.50-117.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.20-111.50
S2     110.80
S3     110.00-109.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     114.00-115.30
R2     115.90
R3     116.50-117.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.814 Sell
20-DMA   90.03 Buy
50-DMA   85.50 Buy
100-DMA   81.43 Buy
200-DMA   75.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1056/EUR, high of US$1.1143/EUR and settled the day up by 0.005% to close at US$1.1116/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1150-1.1470, targeting 1.1150-1.1105-1.1090 and 1.1050-1.1010 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1080-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010, targeting 1.1180-1.1205-1.1270 and 1.1305-1.1485-1.1525.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1105
S2     1.1090
S3     1.1050-1.1011

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1205
R2     1.1240
R3     1.1270-1.1305

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3271/GBP, high of US$1.3406/GBP and settled the day up by 0.645% to close at US$1.3403/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3100 with target 1.3410-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3590-1.3640 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3350-1.3840 with targets at 1.3285-1.3250 and 1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     ¬1.3350-1.3290
S2     1.3250
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3410-1.3500
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3590-1.3650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.78/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.68/USD and settled the day up 0.552% at JPY115.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.50-114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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