AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, but the euro was set for its worst week versus the U.S. currency in nine months. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resultant higher commodities prices continue to drag on expectations of European economic growth. The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.09% to 115.36. Japanese data released earlier in the day showed that the jobs/applications ratio was 1.2 and the unemployment rate was 2.8%, in January 2022. In a move that deepens the crisis in Ukraine, Russian troops shelled the Zaporizhzhia power plant in Enerhodar, Ukraine earlier in the day. Russia also continued to surround and attack Ukrainian cities on the eighth day of its invasion, which began on Feb. 24. These include the eastern port city of Mariupol, which has come under heavy bombardment. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated in his second day of testimony before Congress that he would back an initial quarter percentage point hike in the interest rate.
  • The largest plant of its kind in Europe was reportedly on fire, which gave the Australian dollar a boost. The news sent the euro tumbling a further 0.48% to $1.1009, its lowest since May 2020. The single currency has lost 1.84% in the week to date, its worst week since June 2021. The dollar also fell against the safe-haven yen but gained against other currencies. The effects of surging energy and gas prices could undermine the industrial and private consumption rebound that had been expected following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and was also likely to slow European Central Bank policy normalization. "At next week's ECB meeting, any hints of rate hikes are out of the question," they added. Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to hike interest rates for the first time since COVID-19 began when it hands down its policy decision.
  • The euro was set for its worst week versus the dollar in nine months, as the war in Ukraine and the prospect of sustained high commodity prices continued to drag on expectations of European economic growth. Adding to worries in early Asian trade was news Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest of its kind in Europe, was on fire early on Friday after an attack by Russian troops. Reuters could not immediately verify the information, including the potential seriousness of any fire.
  • The dollar in turn slipped 0.15% on the safe haven yen on Friday morning, following reports of the fire, though with gains elsewhere, the dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers rose 0.3% Russian forces were continuing to surround and attack Ukrainian cities, on the eighth day of their invasion, including Mariupol, the main port in the east which has been under heavy bombardment. They said the effects of surging energy and gas prices could undermine the industrial and private consumption rebound that had been expected following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, and was also likely to slow European Central Bank policy normalisation.
  • In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is all but certain hike interest rates at its March 15-16 meeting for the first time since the pandemic. Fed chair Jerome Powell, overnight repeated his comments from Wednesday that he would back an initial quarter percentage point increase in the Fed's benchmark rate. Higher commodity prices resulting from the war have caused the Aussie to climb steadily in recent weeks.
  • Oil was up on Friday morning in Asia, rebounding as fears of a disruption in Russian oil exports eclipsed the potential revival of an Iranian nuclear deal and more supply. Oil prices have been on an upward trend recently and rose again over signs that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is intensifying. In the latest development, Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia power plant in Enerhodar, Ukraine, which is reportedly on fire. The West slapped sanctions on Russia after it invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24, and fears that they could disrupt oil shipments from Russia also contributed to rising oil prices. Trading activity for Russian crude oil already appears frozen, with buyers hesitant thanks to the sanctions. Russia is the world's biggest exporter of crude and oil products combined. Although prices swung in a $10 range on Thursday, they settled lower for the first time in four sessions as investors focused on the revival of an Iranian nuclear deal that could boost Iranian oil exports and ease tightening supplies. The black liquid is set to post its strongest weekly gains since mid-2020, with WTI futures up more than 22% and Brent futures at 16% after hitting their highest level in a decade earlier in the week. Commonwealth Bank's Dhar expects Brent futures to average $110 a barrel in the second and third quarters of 2022. But "the risk is that prices rise above our forecast in the short term. It's even plausible that Brent futures trade as high as" $150, he said Meanwhile, talks to revive a 2015 Iran nuclear deal appeared to be near a climax. A ministerial meeting could reportedly take place soon, and a U.N. report on Thursday showed Iran has almost amassing enough enriched uranium for one bomb if purified further.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,939-1,950 1,959 1,974-1,984
Silver-XAG 25.40-25.70 26.00 26.40-27.00
Crude Oil 107.50-108.30 109.40 110.80-111.50
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1205 1.1240 1.1270-1.1305
GBP/USD 1.3410-1.3500 1.3550 1.3590-1.3650
USD/JPY 116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,924 1,914 1,909-1,900
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.90 23.40-22.90
Crude Oil 106.10-105.60 104.70 104.00-103.00
EURO/USD 1.1105 1.1090 1.1050-1.1011
GBP/USD 1.3350-1.3290 1.3250 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 115.50-114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (4th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1941.24/oz and low of US$1921.96/oz. Gold up 0.347% at US$1935.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1934-2005 keeping stop loss closing above 2005, targeting 1924-1914 and 1900-1890-1876. Buy in between 1934-1900 with risk below 1890, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,924
S2     1,914
S3     1,909-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,939-1,950
R2     1,959
R3     1,974-1,984

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.313

Buy
20-DMA   1869.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1841.15

Buy
100-DMA   1823.32 Buy
200-DMA   1812.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.541 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.46/oz and low of US$24.95/oz settled down by 0.636% at US$25.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-26.90 with stop loss above 26.90; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.90
S3     23.40-22.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-25.70
R2     26.00
R3     26.40-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US114.53/bbl, intraday low of US$104.69/bbl and settled down by 2.74% to close at US$106.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 108.00-111.50 with stop loss at 111.50; targeting 106.10-105.60-104.70 and 104.00-103.00. Buy above 106.10-103.00 with risk daily closing below 109.00 and targeting 107.50-108.30-109.40 and 110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.10-105.60
S2     104.70
S3     104.00-103.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     107.50-108.30
R2     109.40
R3     110.80-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.814 Sell
20-DMA   90.03 Buy
50-DMA   85.50 Buy
100-DMA   81.43 Buy
200-DMA   75.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1032/EUR, high of US$1.1121/EUR and settled the day down by 0.466% to close at US$1.1065/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1150-1.1470, targeting 1.1150-1.1105-1.1090 and 1.1050-1.1010 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1080-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010, targeting 1.1180-1.1205-1.1270 and 1.1305-1.1485-1.1525.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1105
S2     1.1090
S3     1.1050-1.1011

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1205
R2     1.1240
R3     1.1270-1.1305

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3316/GBP, high of US$1.3417/GBP and settled the day down by 0.4334% to close at US$1.3345/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3100 with target 1.3410-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3590-1.3640 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3350-1.3840 with targets at 1.3285-1.3250 and 1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     ¬1.3350-1.3290
S2     1.3250
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3410-1.3500
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3590-1.3650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY115.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.80/USD and settled the day down 0.055% at JPY115.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.50-114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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