Daily Market Lookup

• The euro was pinned near a 22-month low on Tuesday as war in Ukraine darkens Europe's economic outlook, while commodity currencies took a breather in their weeks-long rally. The common currency is down 4% on the dollar since Russia launched what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine where fighting is showing no signs of abating. It flirted with parity on the Swiss franc on Monday for the first time in seven years and traders are bracing for a bumpy ride ahead, with euro/dollar volatility gauges at their highest since the market chaos of March 2020. Russia-Ukraine Peace talks have made scant progress and though Germany's opposition to a ban on Russian energy imports knocked oil futures from Monday's 14-year peak, analysts expect the supply shock to persist and hurt growth. The ECB meets on Thursday with the spectre of stagflation prompting economists to figure that policymakers might delay rate hikes until late in the year. The euro remained close to Monday's low of $1.0806, despite efforts to bounce after six straight sessions of selling. The single currency is down 4% on the dollar since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, with the conflict showing no signs of ending. The euro came close to parity on the Swiss franc on Monday, the first time in seven years it has done so.
• The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, while the euro was stuck near a 22-month low. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to dim Europe’s economic outlook, but a weeks-long rally in commodity currencies showed signs of a pause. Little progress has been made over two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Germany's opposition to a ban on Russian energy imports knocked oil futures from Monday's 14-year peak, but the supply shock will hurt European growth, some investors warned Alongside commodities’ meteoric rally, the conflict in Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed saw the rouble sliding to a record low of 160 to the dollar in erratic offshore trade on Monday. Other Russian assets also took a hit, although the U.S. dollar remained firm amid concerns that the war would be prolonged, and the economic hit would also spread.
• Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, falling below the $2,000 mark hit the day before. The U.S. dollar traded near a multi-month peak, while palladium fell from record highs as talks between Russia and Ukraine to end their conflict showed little result. The U.S. could go it alone on a potential ban of Russian oil imports, the latest sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russia responded by warning that oil prices could climb to $300 a barrel and it could close the main gas pipeline to Germany if its oil imports are banned. Meanwhile, talks between Russia and Ukraine to halt the conflict have made scant progress. Russia’s negotiators said they did not have positive developments to report following the talks, even warning that a ceasefire could not be guaranteed in the next round. The talks "are not easy," according to negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. On the central bank front, the European Central Bank will hand down its policy decision on Thursday. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will speak on Wednesday and Friday.
• Oil prices see-sawed on Tuesday with Brent crude futures trading at $125 per barrel, around 10% below a 14-year high struck in the last session, reflecting relief that European allies were not planning to join a possible U.S. ban on Russian oil imports. However, keeping a lid on price gains, late on Monday officials said the United States was willing to move ahead with a ban alone, and Germany, the biggest buyer of Russian crude, rejected plans for an energy embargo. Russia exports around 7 million barrels per day of crude and oil products. Russia warned it could stop the flow of gas through pipelines from Russia to Germany in response to Berlin's decision last month to halt the opening of the controversial new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. If all of Russia's oil exports were blocked from global markets, analysts have said prices could rocket to $200 a barrel, while Russia's deputy prime minister said oil could soar to more than $300. Australia's two refiners, Viva Energy and Ampol Ltd, said they had stopped buying Russian crude following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Oil supply disruptions come as inventories continue to fall worldwide. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that U.S. crude stockpiles decreased by about 800,000 barrels in the week to March 4. The poll was conducted ahead of weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2002.59/oz and low of US$1960.96/oz. Gold up 0.954% at US$1997.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2005 keeping stop loss closing above 2005, targeting 1984-1974-1959 and 1950-1939-1924. Buy in between 1974-1924 with risk below 1924, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.13/oz and low of US$25.28/oz settled down by 0.808% at US$25.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.80-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-26.90 with stop loss above 26.90; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US124.96/bbl, intraday low of US$113.29/bbl and settled up by 6.50% to close at US$118.14/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 121.10-121.90 with stop loss at 121.90; targeting 121.10-121.90-122.50 and 123.00-123.70. Buy above 120.00-116.20 with risk daily closing below 116.20 and targeting 121.10-121.90-122.50 and 123.00-123.70

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0805/EUR, high of US$1.0931/EUR and settled the day down by 0.584% to close at US$1.0853/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1010-1.1100, targeting 1.0850-1.0720-1.0640 and 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0520. Buy above 1.0850-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1011-1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3099/GBP, high of US$1.3237/GBP and settled the day down by 0.858% to close at US$1.3101/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3050-1.2850 with target 1.3150-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3290-1.3350-1.3410 with stop loss closing below 1.2900. Sell in between 1.3150-1.3410 with targets at 1.3090-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925 with stop loss should be 1.3410.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY114.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.46/USD and settled the day up 0.300% at JPY115.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.