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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged lower Wednesday, while the euro saw some support ahead of this week’s emergency EU summit as well as the latest European Central Bank policy-setting meeting. This contrasts with the likely decision of the Federal Reserve when it meets next week, with Chairman Jerome Powell backing a quarter-point rate increase while telling Congress last week he would move more aggressively later if inflation didn’t abate. The U.S. moved to ban Russian oil imports late Tuesday, something the majority of its European allies, and Germany in particular, have been unable to do given their greater dependence on Moscow. Russia’s rating was downgraded to C by Fitch Ratings late Tuesday, with the rating agency saying that a bond default is “imminent” as a result of measures ushered in since the war in Ukraine.
  • EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0922, recovering somewhat from Monday's 22-month low of 1.0806, helped by reports that the European Commission was looking at the potential of a large joint bond issue to finance defense and energy projects in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with an emergency EU summit to be held on Thursday. That said, the European Central Bank also meets on Thursday, and with the likelihood that the soaring commodity prices will stunt growth in Europe this year, the policymakers might delay rate hikes until late in the year. Investors now look to the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision, due on Thursday. The possibility of stagflation means that bets on the central bank delaying interest rate hikes until later in 2022 are growing. The recent move towards commodity currencies as rising export prices boost terms of trade also appears to be slowing down. Increasing raw material costs are also acting as a tax on consumers and are hindering economic growth. The Australian dollar steadied and is about 2% below Monday's four-month high of $0.7440.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia. The yellow metal held its ground after hitting a 19-month peak during the previous session, supported by safe-haven demand as the conflict in Ukraine continues and U.S. Treasury yields rise. Apart from U.S. and UK banning Russian oil imports which isn't impacting gold much, "there seems to be a lack of further escalation in the tensions between Russia and Western powers," DailyFX strategist Margaret Yang told Reuters. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates when it hands down its policy decision during the following week. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank will hand down its policy decision on Thursday. In other precious metals, palladium jumped 3.3% to $3,284.67 per ounce, rising 38% since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russia is a major global producer of the metal.
  • Oil prices firmed on Wednesday over fears of a potential supply shock as the United States banned Russian oil imports, and amid signs that some buyers are already shunning them. U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports and Britain said it would phase out Russian oil imports through the end of 2022 in response to Russia's invasion Ukraine. Shell (LON:RDSa) said on Tuesday it would stop buying Russian crude and phase out its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons, becoming one of the first major Western oil companies to abandon Russia entirely. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) estimated that more than half of Russian oil exported from ports remained unsold, while JP Morgan estimated around 70% of Russian seaborne oil was struggling to find buyers Oil prices have surged more than 30% since Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, launched what it called a "special operation" in Ukraine. Fears of further disruptions to oil supply amid escalating sanctions on Moscow has boosted buying, analysts said. U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended March 4, against analysts' forecast of a drop, but gasoline and distillate stocks fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday The International Energy Agency (IEA) is ready to bring more oil to the markets by releasing additional stocks, its head Fatih Birol said on Wednesday, adding that the IEA would also come up with an action plan to "reduce oil in a hurry". U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, amid strong support from American voters and lawmakers, even though the move will drive up U.S. energy prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 2,050-2,059 2,070 2,081-2,089
Silver-XAG 26.50 27.00 27.50-26.80
Crude Oil 121.90 122.50 123.00-123.70
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.1050 1.1090 1.1105-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3200 3290-1.3350 3290-1.3350
USD/JPY 115.50-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 2,040-2,028 2,016 2,050-2,059
Silver-XAG 26.00-25.70 25.40 24.80-24.30
Crude Oil 121.10-120.00 119.00 118.15-116.85
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.0720 1.0640 1.0600-1.0520
GBP/USD 1.3080-1.3035 1.2970 1.2925-1.2850
USD/JPY 115.20-114.90 114.50114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (9th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$2070.43/oz and low of US$1980.94/oz. Gold up 2.628% at US$2049.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2050-2089 keeping stop loss closing above 2089, targeting 2040-2028-2016 and 2005-1990-1984. Buy in between 1928-1974 with risk below 1974, targeting 2050-2059-2070 and 2081-2089.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     2,040-2,028
S2     2,016
S3     2,050-2,059
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     2,050-2,059
R2     2,070
R3     2,081-2,089

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

73.8154

Buy
20-DMA   1895.16 Buy
50-DMA  

1856.62

Buy
100-DMA   1823.71 Buy
200-DMA   1817.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.00 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$26.93/oz and low of US$25.34/oz settled up by 3.11% at US$26.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 26.10-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70 and 26.50-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.50-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 26.10-25.50-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.00-25.70
S2     25.40
S3     24.80-24.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.50
R2     27.00
R3     27.50-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US126.36/bbl, intraday low of US$114.78/bbl and settled up by 3.288% to close at US$122.01/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 121.90-123.70 with stop loss at 123.70; targeting 121.10-121.90-122.50 and 123.00-123.70. Buy above 121.10-116.20 with risk daily closing below 116.20 and targeting 121.90-122.50 and 123.00-123.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     121.10-120.00
S2     119.00
S3     118.15-116.85

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     121.90
R2     122.50
R3     123.00-123.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   83.202 Sell
20-DMA   102.66 Buy
50-DMA   92.65 Buy
100-DMA   85.61 Buy
200-DMA   75.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0847/EUR, high of US$1.0958/EUR and settled the day up by 0.374% to close at US$1.0894/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1010-1.1100, targeting 1.0850-1.0720-1.0640 and 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0520. Buy above 1.0850-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1011-1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0950-1.0720
S2     1.0640
S3     1.0600-1.0520

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1011-1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3081/GBP, high of US$1.3144/GBP and settled the day down by 0.006% to close at US$1.3100/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3050-1.2850 with target 1.3150-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3290-1.3350-1.3410 with stop loss closing below 1.2900. Sell in between 1.3150-1.3410 with targets at 1.3090-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925 with stop loss should be 1.3410.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3080-1.3035
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2925-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3200
R2     3290-1.3350
R3     3290-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.36036.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY115.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.78/USD and settled the day up 0.258% at JPY115.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.20-114.90
S2     114.50114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.50-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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