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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher Thursday, while the euro handed back some of the previous session’s hefty gains ahead of high-level talks between Ukraine and Russia as well as the latest European Central Bank meeting. After the announcement of talks between the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia as well as easing oil prices boosted risk sentiment. Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is set to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Turkey later Thursday. This is the first get-together between the two since Russia’s invasion, raising hopes that a ceasefire can be agreed even though Ukraine's foreign minister warned that his expectations were low. Also helping the euro recover from its recent beating was the sharp selloff in crude prices late Wednesday, with the Brent and WTI contracts both falling over 12%, after indications from a couple of major producers that they could increase supply to attempt to make up for the disruptions caused by the Western sanctions on Russia. Also on the agenda, Thursday is the latest meeting of the European Central Bank, with investors looking at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will impact monetary policy, given the policymakers had signaled in February an exit strategy to its emergency bond purchases, opening the way for an interest rate hike late this year. The U.S. will release its consumer price index for February later in the day. This is expected to show another rise, with the annual figure seen reaching 7.9%, up from 7.5% this previous month. The Federal Reserve meets next week and is widely expected to hike interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Russian officials have taken many measures to shore up its battered economy and safeguard hard currency availability, but the economy is headed for one of its biggest inflation spikes this century, to the likely detriment of its currency.
  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, while the euro held onto most of its overnight gains. The latter had posted its steepest daily jump in nearly six years after a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers, and investor sentiment also improved as oil prices eased. The note attributed the euro's gains to some optimism ahead of a meeting between Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba. The meeting was the first between the two since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. It also pointed to reports that the European Union was discussing bond issuance to finance energy and defense spending, as well as “suspicions the ECB might not fully reverse its early February 'hawkish tilt' when it meets later today, given that inflation is destined to push still higher given the latest energy price shock. On the data front, the U.S. will release its consumer price index later in the day. This will be of note, with the U.S. Federal Reserve preparing to hand down its policy decision in the following week. The central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in its decision.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia. Investors retreated from the safe-haven yellow metal as U.S. Treasury yields rose and oil fell after comments from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The yellow metal pulled back about 3% in the previous session, the worst daily decline since January 2021, and halted a rally that took it near a record high hit in August 2020On the data front, the U.S. will release its consumer price index later in the day, with the U.S. Federal Reserve also due to hand down its latest policy decision on Mar. 16. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank will also hand down its own policy decision later in the day. Commodity prices cooled their rally on Wednesday. This rally saw record multi-year highs as markets digested supply disruption from Russia and Ukraine, two major producers of energy, metals, and crops. However, the conflict stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 continues.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday in volatile trade following a sharp drop in the previous session as the market contemplated whether major producers would boost supply to help plug the gap in output from Russia due to sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. Uncertainty over where and when supply will come from to replace crude from the world's second-largest exporter Russia in a tight market has led to wide-ranging forecasts for oil prices between $100 and $200 a barrel. Comments from the United Arab Emirates energy minister and the country's ambassador to Washington sent conflicting signals. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Twitter late on Wednesday his country is committed to the existing agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, to ramp up oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day monthly following sharp cuts in 2020. Just hours before, prices slumped on comments from UAE's ambassador to Washington saying his country will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher output to fill the supply gap due to sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine. Russia calls its incursion a "special operation" to disarm its neighbour. The comments from UAE officials came as the market also took into account moves by the United States to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil and efforts to seal a nuclear deal with Tehran, which could lead to more oil supply coming from Iran later this year. Talks set for Thursday between Russia and Ukraine's foreign ministers in Turkey also gave the market reason for pause. While UAE and Saudi Arabia have spare capacity, some other OPEC+ producers are struggling to meet their output targets due to underinvestment in infrastructure over the past few years, which will limit their ability to lift output further. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil, fuel stockpiles fell last week, adding to the worries over already tight global supplies. Crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week to March 4 to 411.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 657,000-barrel drop. U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 577.5 million barrels, the lowest since July 2002.The U.S. is also urging fellow oil producers to increase production if possible. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are two of the few Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) members with the capacity to do so.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,990-2,006 2,016 2,028-2,040
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 27.00 27.50-27.80
Crude Oil 110.40-111.00 111.90 113.10-114.50
EURO/USD 1.1050 1.10901.1090 1.1105-1.1180
GBP/USD ¬1.3200 1.3250 1.3290-1.3350
USD/JPY 115.50-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,973-1,965 1,958 1,950-1,941
Silver-XAG 27.50-27.80 24.30 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 108.50-107.00 106.60 105.10-104.00
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.0950 1.0720 1.0640-1.0600
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3080 1.3035 1.2970-1.2925
USD/JPY 115.20-114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (10th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$2059.07/oz and low of US$1975.82/oz. Gold down 2.89% at US$1990.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1990-2050 keeping stop loss closing above 2050, targeting 1984-1973-1965 and 1958-1951-1941. Buy in between 1974-1941 with risk below 1941, targeting 1990-2006-2016 and 2028-2040-2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,973-1,965
S2     1,958
S3     1,950-1,941
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,990-2,006
R2     2,016
R3     2,028-2,040

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.570

Buy
20-DMA   1931.16 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.62

Buy
100-DMA   1845.71 Buy
200-DMA   1824.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.064 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$26.76/oz and low of US$25.39/oz settled down by 2.33% at US$25.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.70-26.50-26.75 and 27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.70-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.50-27.80
S2     24.30
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     27.00
R3     27.50-27.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US110.23/bbl, intraday low of US$104.45/bbl and settled down by 3.288% to close at US$110.07/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 110.40-114.50 with stop loss at 114.50; targeting 108.50-107.00-106.60 and 105.10-104.00. Buy above 108.50-104.00 with risk daily closing below 104.00 and targeting 110.40-111.00-111.90 and 113.10-114.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.00
S2     106.60
S3     105.10-104.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     110.40-111.00
R2     111.90
R3     113.10-114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   83.202 Sell
20-DMA   102.66 Buy
50-DMA   92.65 Buy
100-DMA   85.61 Buy
200-DMA   75.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0889/EUR, high of US$1.0948/EUR and settled the day up by 1.65% to close at US$1.1074/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1050-1.1180, targeting 1.1101-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0850-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1011-1.0950
S2     1.0720
S3     1.0640-1.0600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1050
R2     1.10901.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3087/GBP, high of US$1.3189/GBP and settled the day up by 0.577% to close at US$1.3174/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3150-1.2850 with target 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3290-1.3350-1.3410 with stop loss closing below 1.2900. Sell in between 1.3190-1.3410 with targets at 1.3090-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925 with stop loss should be 1.3410.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3080
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2925

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     ¬1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY115.53/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.93/USD and settled the day up 0.258% at JPY115.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.20-114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.50-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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