AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia. The Japanese yen hit a fresh five-year low as a slew of central banks prepare to hand down their policy decisions throughout the week. Hopes that talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict that began with the former’s Feb. 24 invasion weighed on safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Sunday that there could be signs that Russia is willing to begin substantial negotiations to end its invasion of Ukraine. However, fighting in the conflict that began on Feb. 24 continues. The dollar climbed to as much as 117.61 yen earlier in the session, the highest level since January 2017, extending gains from the previous week which Barclays PLC analysts attributed to a decline in demand for safe havens as equities rallied.
  • The dollar hit a five-year high against the yen on Monday, as traders braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking rates, while reckoning the Bank of Japan remains dovish. The dollar touched 117.88 yen in Asia trade, its strongest since January 2017, at the start of a busy week of central bank meetings in the United States, Britain and Japan. Futures are pricing in between six and seven U.S. rate hikes of 25 basis points each this year, and six in Britain as the war in Ukraine adds to global inflationary pressures. In contrast, the BOJ is set to remain dovish at its meeting this week as policymakers try to boost the country's weak economic recovery from the pandemic. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain a dovish stance when it hands down its policy decision on Friday. The Fed, on the other hand, is expected to hike interest rates when it hands down its decision on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia will also release the minutes from its last meeting on Tuesday.
  • The Bank of England (BOE) will also hand down its policy decision, with bets firmly on a further 25-basis-point rate hike. The euro traded at $1.0935, with hopes of an end to the conflict in Ukraine giving it a small boost. However, the conflict’s impact on eurozone growth continues to weigh on the single currency. Commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian and the New Zealand dollars, retreated from the multi-year highs hit in March due to surging oil, grain, and metals prices.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia. U.S. Treasury yields rose over expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike, while hopes for an end to the conflict in Ukraine dented the safe-haven yellow metal further. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Sunday that there could be signs that Russia is willing to begin substantial negotiations to end the conflict, even as the fighting continues. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a near one-month high, with the Fed widely expected to hike interest rates when it hands down its policy decision later in the week. In Asia Pacific, the Bank of Japan will hand down its policy decision on Friday, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its latest meeting on Tuesday. The Bank of England will also hand down its policy decision on Thursday.Russian mining giant Nornickel managed to secure alternative routes for its palladium deliveries, but logistics issues remain. Silver fell 0.9% and platinum fell 1.9%.
  • Oil was down on Monday morning in Asia, extending a decline from the previous week. The black liquid fell by about $4 a barrel during early trade, after the U.S. said Russia could be willing to conduct substantial negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Both Brent and WTI futures have climbed since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and are up roughly 40% for 2022 to date. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Sunday that Russia could be willing to have substantive negotiations over Ukraine, even as fighting continues. Both Brent and WTI futures hit their highest levels since 2008 last week on supply concerns after the West, including the U.S. and some European countries, considered banning Russian oil imports The U.S. later announced a ban on Russian supplies, while the U.K. is looking to phase supplies out by the end of 2022. The United Arab Emirates' ambassador to the U.S., Yousuf Al Otaiba, said his country supports production increases and would encourage the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to consider higher output. The comments put further downward pressure on prices. Some OPEC and allies (OPEC+) members are struggling to meet existing output quotas, thanks to a lack of investment and spare capacity to further boost production. Russia is the top exporter of crude and oil products combined globally and accounts for around 7 million barrels per day. Talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume on Monday, press secretary for Russian President Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov reportedly told media on Sunday. Peskov’s comments came after Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said Ukraine and Russia were actively conducting talks on Sunday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,990-2,006 2,016 2,028-2,040
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 27.00 27.50-27.80
Crude Oil 104.00-105.10 106.60 107.00-108.50
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.1050 1.1090 1.1105-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3290
USD/JPY 114.90-114.50 -118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,973-1,965 1,958 1,950-1,941
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.80 24.30 23.95-23.80 Intraday Resistance Levels 26.00-26.50 27.00 27.50-27.80 24.30 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 102.40-101.60 100.00-99.20 98.30-97.75
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.0720 1.0640-1.0600
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.2970 1.2925 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 116.10-115.50 115.20 115.20

Intra-Day Strategy (14th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1998.85/oz and low of US$1958.45/oz. Gold down 0.386% at US$1988.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1990-2050 keeping stop loss closing above 2050, targeting 1984-1973-1965 and 1958-1951-1941. Buy in between 1974-1941 with risk below 1941, targeting 1990-2006-2016 and 2028-2040-2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,973-1,965
S2     1,958
S3     1,950-1,941
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,990-2,006
R2     2,016
R3     2,028-2,040

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.570

Buy
20-DMA   1931.16 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.62

Buy
100-DMA   1845.71 Buy
200-DMA   1824.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.064 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   23.493 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.98/oz and low of US$25.40/oz settled down by 0.185% at US$25.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.70-26.50-26.75 and 27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.70-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.80 24.30 23.95-23.80 Intraday Resistance Levels 26.00-26.50 27.00 27.50-27.80
S2     24.30
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     27.00
R3     27.50-27.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US107.69/bbl, intraday low of US$101.81/bbl and settled up by 2.95% to close at US$106.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 104.00-108.50 with stop loss at 108.50; targeting 102.40-101.60-100.00 and 99.00-98.30-97.75. Buy above 102.40-97.75 with risk daily closing below 97.75 and targeting 104.00-105.10-106.60 and 107.00-108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     102.40-101.60
S2     100.00-99.20
S3     98.30-97.75

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     104.00-105.10
R2     106.60
R3     107.00-108.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   83.202 Sell
20-DMA   102.66 Buy
50-DMA   92.65 Buy
100-DMA   85.61 Buy
200-DMA   75.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0901/EUR, high of US$1.1043/EUR and settled the day down by 0.619% to close at US$1.0911/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1050-1.1180, targeting 1.1101-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0900-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.0720
S3     1.0640-1.0600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1011-1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3026/GBP, high of US$1.3124/GBP and settled the day down by 0.356% to close at US$1.3036/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.2970
S2     1.2925
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3070-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY116.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY117.35/USD and settled the day up 0.999% at JPY117.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     116.10-115.50
S2     115.20
S3     115.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.90-114.50
R2     -118.00
R3    

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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