AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The yen remained under pressure on Tuesday and the euro edged higher as talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators continued, but moves were more muted than in recent days as the market's attention turned to this week's Fed meeting. The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise rates for the first time since the pandemic at its meeting which concludes Wednesday, with traders looking for indications about the pace of future rate hikes. The contrast between rising benchmark rates in the United States and low rates in Japan is becoming ever more apparent as the Fed begins to tighten, particularly with both the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting this week. The return of risk sentiment to markets, partly on the back of hints of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, has also taken away some of the support for the safe-haven Japanese currency. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a fourth round of talks on Monday but no new progress was announced. Discussions were due to resume on Tuesday, offering a boost to the euro, which has been badly bruised by the expected economic damage caused by the conflict.
  • The European common currency was up 0.36% to $1.0979, with analysts also pointing to falling oil prices as a factor given Europe's current reliance on Russian oil and gas. Traders were also watching the Chinese yuan which touched a near three-month low, as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases clouds the country's economic outlook, while the deepening Ukraine crisis boosts geopolitical risks for Beijing. The dollar dipped modestly against a basket of currencies on Monday but remained near a 21-month high hit last week as investors eyed Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while major central bank meetings this week kept large moves in foreign exchange in check. Tentative hopes of progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia helped boost the appetite for riskier currencies on Monday, though upcoming central bank meetings and another COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown in China kept risk-taking muted. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a fourth round of talks on Monday - by video link this time rather than in person in neighboring Belarus as in the past - but no new progress was announced and talks are expected to resume on Tuesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates when it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors completely pricing in a hike of at least 25 basis points, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently flagged multiple rate hikes this year as the central bank attempts to curb surging inflation.
  • The British pound gave up earlier gains and lost 0.15% against the greenback even as the Bank of England appears poised to lift interest rates to 0.75% on Thursday, its third hike in a row, as it seeks to rein in a surge in inflation intensified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China's lockdown measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 lifted the dollar to 6.3961 versus the offshore yuan, the yuan's weakest in two months. The yuan rose 0.56% versus the greenback at $6.3940 per dollar. China has reported more local symptomatic COVID-19 cases so far this year than in all of 2021, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant causes outbreaks from Shanghai to Shenzhen.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, falling to its lowest in more than a week. U.S. Treasury yields surged ahead of a Federal Reserve’s policy decision and hopes for progress in talks between Ukraine and Russia further dampened the safe-haven yellow metal's appeal. U.S. Treasury yields soared to two-and-a-half-year highs on Monday, with investors awaiting the Fed’s policy decision, which will be handed down on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to hike interest rates for the first time in three years. The Bank of England will hand down its own policy decision on Thursday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco, and Chief Economist Philip Lane speaking at a conference on the same day. The Bank of Japan will hand down its policy decision on Friday. Russia and Ukraine ended a fourth round of talks on Monday with little progress made towards ending a conflict that began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The talks are scheduled to resume on Tuesday. Russian refiners will be allowed to resume selling platinum and palladium in London, the biggest precious metals trading center globally, a market authority said during the previous week. Palladium hit a record high of $3,440.76 during the previous week, thanks to concerns about supply disruptions from top producer Russia.
  • Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, sliding to a two-week low as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine eased fears of further supply disruptions and surging COVID-19 cases in China fuelled concerns about slower demand. China posted a steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections on Tuesday, with new cases more than doubling from a day earlier to hit a two-year high, raising concerns about the rising economic costs of the country's tough containment measures. Further talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators to ease the crisis were expected on Tuesday after discussions on Monday via video ended with no new progress announced. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to travel to Brussels next week to meet with NATO leaders to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine, U.S. and foreign sources familiar with the situation said on Monday. The United States has warned China against providing military or financial help to Moscow. But India may take up a Russian offer to buy crude oil and other commodities at a discount, two Indian officials said, in a sign that Delhi wants to keep its key trading partner on board. Investors cut bullish bets on oil last week as prices surged to multi-year highs, the economic outlook deteriorated, and extreme volatility made derivatives positions more expensive to maintain. The voluntary shunning of Russian commodities by Western buyers, or self-sanctioning, was expected to start hitting exports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal from April, but there are already signs that flows are weakening.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,973
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 96.10-97.75 98.30 99.20-101.20
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.1050 1.1090 1.1105-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3290
USD/JPY 116.80-117.50 -118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,888-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 95.00-93.40 92.50 92.50 91.90-91.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.0720 1.0640-1.0600
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.2970 1.2925 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 116.10-115.50 115.20 114.90-114.50

Intra-Day Strategy (15th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1989.23/oz and low of US$1949.67/oz. Gold down % at US$1950.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1973 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1925-1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950-1958 and 1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,888-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,973

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.937

Buy
20-DMA   1938.34 Buy
50-DMA  

1887.86

Buy
100-DMA   1852.69 Buy
200-DMA   1828.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.725 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   32.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.92/oz and low of US$24.92/oz settled down by 3.426% at US$25.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.70-26.50-26.75 and 27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.70-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.012 Buy
20-DMA   23.69 Sell
50-DMA   23.38 Sell
100-DMA   23.46 Sell
200-DMA   23.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.836 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US106.71/bbl, intraday low of US$97.92/bbl and settled down by 6.05% to close at US$100.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 104.00-108.50 with stop loss at 108.50; targeting 102.40-101.60-100.00 and 99.00-98.30-97.75. Buy above 102.40-97.75 with risk daily closing below 97.75 and targeting 104.00-105.10-106.60 and 107.00-108.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     95.00-93.40
S2     92.50 92.50
S3     91.90-91.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     96.10-97.75
R2     98.30
R3     99.20-101.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.703 Sell
20-DMA   101.19 Buy
50-DMA   93.42 Buy
100-DMA   86.55 Buy
200-DMA   78.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   4.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0900/EUR, high of US$1.0993/EUR and settled the day down by 0.231% to close at US$1.0941/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1050-1.1180, targeting 1.1101-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0900-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.0720
S3     1.0640-1.0600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1011-1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.792 Buy
20-DMA   1.1319 Sell
50-DMA   1.1339 Sell
100-DMA   1.1410 Sell
200-DMA   1.1540 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3000/GBP, high of US$1.3078/GBP and settled the day down by 0.317% to close at US$1.3002/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.2970
S2     1.2925
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3070-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY117.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY118.21/USD and settled the day up 0.713% at JPY117.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     116.10-115.50
S2     115.20
S3     114.90-114.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     116.80-117.50
R2     -118.00
R3    

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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