AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia but was near a five-year high against the yen. Investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with the conflict in Ukraine and the surging number of COVID-19 cases in China also on their radars. U.S. Treasury yields climbed ahead of the Fed’s policy decision, which will be handed down later in the day. This gave the dollar a boost vis-a-vis the yen, with investors fully priced for the first interest rate hike in three years and giving 13% odds of a half-percentage point increase. This kept the dollar index around the 99 mark after it hit a high of 99.415 at the beginning of the previous week. The dollar was also near its highest level this month to its riskier Australian counterpart, with commodity prices retreating from multi-year peaks as Russia and Ukraine continue talks that could lead to a ceasefire. Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24. For the greenback, "the bigger question will be that there is a lot of historical evidence that the dollar peaks as soon as the Fed commences the tightening cycle, so there's a lot of interest in whether what the Fed does turns out to be something of a watershed in terms of a peak," with the dollar index topping out around 100, Attrill said.
  • The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.01% to 118.27, the strongest level since January 2017. Japanese trade data released earlier in the day showed that exports grew 19.1% year-on-year and imports grew 34% year-on-year in February 2022. The trade balance was –JPY668.3 billion ($5.65 billion) and the adjusted trade balance was –JPY1.03 trillion.
  • The euro continued to crawl back up from its plunge to a nearly 22-month low earlier in the month. The single currency edged up 0.14% higher to $1.09695, clawing up from a low of $1.08060 hit on Mar. 7. The Bank of England will hand down its policy decision on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan’s decision following a day later.
  • Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, holding near a two-week low. Investors stayed away from big bets as they await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will hand down its policy decision on Thursday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco, and Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak at a conference on the same day. The Bank of Japan will hand down its own policy decision a day later. U.S. President Joe Biden will head to Europe in the following week, his first visit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He will discuss the crisis in Ukraine with NATO allies during the visit, the White House said on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the number of Ukrainian refugees hit 3 million as Russia continues its air strikes. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (the Bank of Russia) also said it would suspend purchases of gold from banks from Tuesday to meet increased demand from households. This is the central bank’s latest attempt to deal with the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. In other precious metals, palladium gained 0.5%, but remained near a more than two-week low hit on Monday, as supply fears eased. Silver edged up 0.2% and platinum inched up 0.1%.
  • Oil prices rose over $1 on Wednesday, bouncing back after earlier declines, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke volatile trading with ceasefire talks the latest market trigger. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address released early on Wednesday that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at peace talks were sounding more realistic, but more time was needed. A strong U.S. dollar is a key element exerting pressure on oil prices and investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy to curb flaring inflation, she said. Analysts expect the Fed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday to address soaring inflation. A rise in interest rates would strengthen the U.S. dollar and dampen oil demand, as a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for those holding other currencies. Oil had settled below $100 on Tuesday, the first time since late February. Trading sessions have been volatile since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, with prices hitting 14-year highs on March 7, but since then Brent has fallen nearly $40 a barrel and WTI about $34. Prices had also come under pressure this week over concerns of slowing China demand, as the world's most populous country and second-largest oil consumer imposes stringent measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant. New domestically transmitted cases in China, however, fell by nearly half on March 15 compared with the previous day, the country's national health commission reported on Wednesday. Lockdown in parts of China could unlock if omicron cases remain mild, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. Meanwhile, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels for the week ended March 11, while gasoline inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 888,000 barrels, according to sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Official U.S. government inventory data is due on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Tuesday that oil demand in 2022 faced challenges from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation as crude prices soar, increasing the likelihood of reductions to its forecast for robust demand this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,941 1,950 1,958-1,965
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 96.10-97.75 98.30 99.20-101.20
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.1050 1.1090 1.1105-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3290
USD/JPY 116.80-117.50 -118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,911-1,900 1,889 1,877-1,869
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 95.00-93.40 92.50 91.90-91.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.0720 1.0640-1.0600
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.2970 1.2925 1.2850-1.2790
USD/JPY 116.10-115.50 115.2 0 116.80-117.50

Intra-Day Strategy (16th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1954.50/oz and low of US$1906.94/oz. Gold down 1.699% at US$1917.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1925-1973 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1911-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,911-1,900
S2     1,889
S3     1,877-1,869
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,925-1,941
R2     1,950
R3     1,958-1,965

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.491829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.10/oz and low of US$24.52/oz settled down by 0.404% at US$24.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US100.95/bbl, intraday low of US$92.28/bbl and settled down by 6.76% to close at US$93.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 96.10-101.20 with stop loss at 101.20; targeting 95.00-93.40-92.50 and 91.90-91.00. Buy above 95.00-91.00 with risk daily closing below 91.00 and targeting 96.10-97.75-98.30 and 99.20-101.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     95.00-93.40
S2     92.50
S3     91.90-91.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     96.10-97.75
R2     98.30
R3     99.20-101.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.703 Sell
20-DMA   101.19 Sell
50-DMA   93.42 Buy
100-DMA   86.55 Buy
200-DMA   78.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.108 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0925/EUR, high of US$1.1019/EUR and settled the day up by 0.06% to close at US$1.0948/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1010-1.1180, targeting 1.1101-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0900-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.0720
S3     1.0640-1.0600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1011-1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.1264 Buy
20-DMA   1.1073 Sell
50-DMA   1.1198 Sell
100-DMA   1.1473 Sell
200-DMA   1.1473 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2999/GBP, high of US$1.3088/GBP and settled the day up by 0.250% to close at US$1.3035/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.2970
S2     1.2925
S3     1.2850-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3070-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.360

Buy
20-DMA   1.3508 Buy
50-DMA   1.3508 Buy
100-DMA   1.3532 Buy
200-DMA   1.3572 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY117.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY118.21/USD and settled the day up 0.713% at JPY117.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     116.10-115.50
S2     115.2 0
S3     116.80-117.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     116.80-117.50
R2     -118.00
R3    

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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