AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia. The yen was at a six-year low on the dollar as investors continue to digest a hawkish outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve that contrasts sharply with that of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The yen was pinned to a six-year low on the dollar on Thursday, as a U.S. rate hike and hawkish outlook underscored just how far the Bank of Japan is likely to lag worldwide policy tightening, while stellar jobs data lifted the Australian dollar. Increasing the target federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2018. Its policymakers' projections for as many as six more hikes this year were even more aggressive than expected. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, by contrast, on Thursday played down the chance of inflation reaching a 2% target and made his case for keeping monetary policy ultra-easy.
  • The Bank of Japan concludes a two-day meeting on Friday and is not expected to unwind accommodative settings. Tightening monetary policy or intervening in the currency market will do little to reverse unwelcome yen declines that inflate already rising fuel and raw material prices. Japanese policymakers have historically battled sharp yen rises that threaten to damage exports by issuing verbal warnings or currency intervention, while keeping a hands-off approach on yen falls. But the yen's recent weakness -- it has fallen over 3% against the dollar so far this month -- has drawn concern from politicians, who worry about the damage it could do to households and retailers via higher fuel and food costs. The Fed hiked its interest rate to 0.5% in its policy decision handed down on Wednesday. The central bank was more aggressive than expected, hinting that it could raise rates at all six remaining meetings in 2022.
  • Sterling hovered at $1.3158, as dealers waited for 1200 GMT, when the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for a third straight meeting. The market's focus will be on any new thinking from policymakers about juggling the competing pressures of inflation and slowing growth Elsewhere, talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on a status for Ukraine outside of NATO has lifted hopes for negotiated end to fighting and put a bit of downward pressure on the dollar more broadly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said negotiations were becoming "more realistic" and Russia said proposals under discussion were "close to an agreement."
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia but remained near a three-week low hit during the previous session as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike lifted U.S. Treasury yields. Hopes for progress in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine also dimmed the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. The Fed hiked its interest rate to 0.5% as it handed down its policy decision on Wednesday. It was the first time that the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, and hikes at all six remaining meetings in 2022 are likely. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy is “very strong” and can handle monetary tightening. The Fed's decision also saw U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climb to their highest level since May 2019. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will hand down its policy decision later in the day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco, and Chief Economist Philip Lane will also speak at a conference on the same day. In Asia Pacific, the Bank of Japan will hand down its policy decision on Friday. Investors are also monitoring the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential resolution to the conflict that began with the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said negotiations were becoming "more realistic" while Russia said proposals under discussion were "close to an agreement."
  • Oil prices climbed about 3% on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said markets could lose three million barrels a day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products from April. The supply loss would be far greater than an expected drop in demand of one million bpd triggered by higher fuel prices, the IEA said in a report on Wednesda. Both contracts settled lower the previous day, following an unexpected jump in U.S. crude stockpiles and signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Prices had sagged in the previous session on news that oil inventories in the United States climbed by 4.3 million barrels in the week to March 11 to 415.9 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, surpassing analysts' expectations for a decline of 1.4 million barrels. The oil market largely shrugged off a move by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday to raise interest rates by one-quarter of a percentage point, as anticipated. Market sentiment was somewhat boosted after China pledged policies to boost financial markets and economic growth, while a decline in new COVID-19 cases in China spurred hopes that authorities could lift travel bans and allow factories to resume production in cities under lockdowns.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 97.75-98.30 99.20 101.20-102.00
EURO/USD 1.1011-1.1050 1.1090 1.1105-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3240 1.3285 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 119.10-120.00 120.50 121.00-122.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 96.10- 95.00 92.50-93.40 91.90
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.07201.0720 1.0640-1.0600
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2925
USD/JPY 118.00-117.50 116.80 116.10-115.50

Intra-Day Strategy (17th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1929.37/oz and low of US$1894.98/oz. Gold up 0.391% at US$1926.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.09/oz and low of US$24.45/oz settled up by 0.805% at US$25.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US100.95/bbl, intraday low of US$92.28/bbl and settled down by 6.76% to close at US$93.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 97.10-101.20 with stop loss at 101.20; targeting 95.00-93.40-92.50 and 91.90-91.00. Buy above 96.10-91.00 with risk daily closing below 91.00 and targeting 97.75-98.30 and 99.20-101.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     96.10- 95.00
S2     92.50-93.40
S3     91.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     97.75-98.30
R2     99.20
R3     101.20-102.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.703 Sell
20-DMA   101.19 Sell
50-DMA   93.42 Buy
100-DMA   86.55 Buy
200-DMA   78.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.108 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0948/EUR, high of US$1.1046/EUR and settled the day up by 0.754% to close at US$1.1030/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1010-1.1180, targeting 1.1101-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0900-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.07201.0720
S3     1.0640-1.0600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1011-1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1105-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.1264 Buy
20-DMA   1.1073 Sell
50-DMA   1.1198 Sell
100-DMA   1.1473 Sell
200-DMA   1.1473 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3033/GBP, high of US$1.3155/GBP and settled the day up by 0.828% to close at US$1.3143/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2925

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.244

Buy
20-DMA   1.3241 Buy
50-DMA   1.3366 Buy
100-DMA   1.3447 Buy
200-DMA   1.3 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY118.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY119.11/USD and settled the day up 0.388% at JPY118.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 114.90-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.50-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     118.00-117.50
S2     116.80
S3     116.10-115.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     119.10-120.00
R2     120.50
R3     121.00-122.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.1856.266 115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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