AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar headed for its first down week in six versus major peers on Friday, languishing near a one-week low, as investors continued to assess the impact of the start of the Federal Reserve's rate tightening cycle this week. The safe-haven greenback also lost traction - while the euro benefited - as traders stayed optimistic for an end to the war in Ukraine as talks continued between Moscow and Kyiv, although progress on Thursday was elusive. Sentiment also improved after Russia avoided default on dollar-denominated debt. A phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later on Friday, with the U.S. warning China not to provide support to Russia, added a further layer of geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, sterling ticked higher and remained on track for its first winning week in four, overcoming the hiccup from the Bank of England's dovish comments after raising rates for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday. The yen remained near a six-year low after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-accommodative policy settings unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, leaving it an outlier among developed-world central banks which are exiting pandemic emergency measures. The dip came despite the Federal Open Market Committee raising rates on Wednesday and signalling the equivalent of a quarter-point increase at each of its six remaining policy meetings this year, leaving investors racing to work out how much monetary tightening the economy can handle. Meanwhile, the continuation of peace talks even as fighting still rages in Ukraine has seen demand for safe havens like the dollar dry up, while the euro has rebounded from last week's nearly two-year trough, on track for its first weekly gain since the start of last month.
  • The pound was higher and set for its first winning week in four. Investors continued to digest the Bank of England hiking interest rates to 0.75% as it handed down its policy decision on Thursday. The central bank also softened its language around the need for future rate hikes to "might be appropriate" from "likely to be appropriate." However, "a more favorable diplomatic backdrop between Russia and Ukraine appears to be developing and there's more dollar index downside to be had if momentum moves toward a ceasefire," Westpac strategists said in a note. The ripple effects from Wednesday’s Fed’s policy decision, which saw the central bank hike its interest rate to 0.5%, also continue. The Fed also hinted at hikes at each of its six remaining policy meetings in 2022, with some investors wondering whether the economy will be able to handle the tightening. The Bank of Japan also kept its interest rate steady at -0.10% as it handed down its policy decision earlier in the day. The widening policy gap with its U.S. counterpart pushed the yen to a six-year high at 119.13 on Wednesday. The yen is set for a 1.15% weekly decline after falling 2.26% during the previous session, its worst in two years.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, easing towards its biggest weekly drop since late November 2021. Hopes that progress in ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia dented the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. Russia appeared to have stalled its advance on Ukrainian cities after its invasion on Feb. 24. Officials from the two countries met again for peace talks, however, progress was limited. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England hiked its interest rates to 0.75% as it handed down its policy decision on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate steady at -0.10% as it handed down its policy decision earlier in the day. In other precious metals, palladium jumped 2.7% but was set for a second consecutive weekly fall of about 8%. Silver was down 0.3% and was set for its first weekly dip in seven. Platinum was flat at $1,021.62 but was set for a weekly dip of 5%, the biggest since November 2021.
  • Oil prices extended their gains on Friday at the end of a third volatile week of trade after slim progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine raised the spectre of tighter sanctions and a prolonged disruption to oil supply. Despite battleground setbacks and punitive sanctions by the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little sign of relenting. A fourth day of talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators took place by videolink, but the Kremlin said an agreement had yet to be reached. Despite the rebound, both benchmark contracts were set to end the week down more than 4%, after having traded in a $16 range. Prices have dropped from 14-year highs hit nearly two weeks ago. The supply crunch from sanctions on Russia, stuttering nuclear talks with Iran, dwindling oil stockpiles and worries about a surge of COVID-19 cases in China hitting demand all drove the rollercoaster ride over the week. Analysts said comments from a Kremlin spokesperson saying a report of major progress in peace talks was "wrong" and U.S. President Joe Biden calling Putin a "war criminal" all stoked a wave of buying on Thursday. Underscoring tight supplies, consultancy FGE said on-land product stocks at key countries are 39.9 million barrels lower for this time of the year relative to the 2017-2019 average and also 45 million barrels lower year on year. The volatility has scared players out of the oil market, which in turn is likely to exacerbate price swings, traders, bankers and analysts said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 104.90-105.85 107.00 107.75-109.40
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1105 1.1180 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3240 1.3285 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 119.10-120.00 120.50 121.00-122.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 103.90-103.00 102.00 101.20-99.20
EURO/USD 1.1050-1.1011 1.0900 1.0820-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.2970-1.2925 1.3035 1.2970-1.2925
USD/JPY 118.00-117.50 116.80 116.10-115.50

Intra-Day Strategy (18th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1949.67/oz and low of US$1923.06/oz. Gold up 0.817% at US$1942.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.53/oz and low of US$24.99/oz settled up by 1.132% at US$25.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US100.95/bbl, intraday low of US$93.38/bbl and settled up by 8.81% to close at US$102.03/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 104.90-109.40 with stop loss at 109.40; targeting 103.90-103.00-102.00 and 101.20-99.20. Buy above 103.90-99.00 with risk daily closing below 99.00 and targeting 104.90-105.85-107.00 and 107.75-109.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.90-103.00
S2     102.00
S3     101.20-99.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     104.90-105.85
R2     107.00
R3     107.75-109.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.703 Sell
20-DMA   101.19 Sell
50-DMA   93.42 Buy
100-DMA   86.55 Buy
200-DMA   78.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.108 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1006/EUR, high of US$1.1137/EUR and settled the day up by 0.542% to close at US$1.1089/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0900-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1050-1.1011
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090-1.1105
R2     1.1180
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3087/GBP, high of US$1.3210/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0182% to close at US$1.3145/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2970-1.2925
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2925

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.244

Buy
20-DMA   1.3241 Buy
50-DMA   1.3366 Buy
100-DMA   1.3447 Buy
200-DMA   1.3 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY118.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY119.02/USD and settled the day up 0.127% at JPY118.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 119.10-122.00 with risk above 122.00 targeting 118.00-117.50-116.80 and 116.10-115.50. Long positions above 118.00-115.50 with targets of 119.10-120.00-120.50 and 121.00-122.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     118.00-117.50
S2     116.80
S3     116.10-115.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     119.10-120.00
R2     120.50
R3     121.00-122.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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