AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, recording slight gains on the Japanese yen to as much as 119.3 yen and challenging the six-year peak of 119.39 touched on Friday. The yen continued to drop on Monday, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars remained bid. A slew of global central bank policymakers, including U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, will also speak throughout the week. Moves in the pair could slow this week, but the dollar will climb further on the yen in the coming months as the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates widens, CBA analysts predicted. BOJ kept its dovish policy as it handed down its policy decision on Friday. This contrasted with the Fed’s approach, which saw it hike its interest rate the previous Wednesday. CME’s Fedwatch predicted a nearly 90% chance of at least 75 basis points of increases across the Fed's meetings in May and June 2022. Such high expectations helped the dollar climb steadily in the early part of this year, but with many Fed increases already priced in, it could struggle to gain further, according to some investors. Further gains could be possible as the Fed's hiking cycle is now priced in, and because of the ongoing recovery in global risk sentiment, which would typically support risk-friendly currencies, the Barclays analysts added. The euro was at $1.1044, with the conflict in Ukraine dictating the future of the both the single currency and the pound. Speeches from policymakers at the European Central Bank, including president Christine Lagarde, might also play a role.
  • The yen extended its decline on Monday and the euro and sterling came under pressure, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's remarks later in the day and other central bank policymakers this week for monetary policy clues. In contrast, the U.S. central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since the pandemic. Traders' focus is now firmly on the speed and size of future rate hikes and the height of their eventual peak, as policy makers try to curb soaring inflation. A series of speeches by Fed policymakers this week, kicked off by Powell on Monday, could provide some clues. At least one Fed speaker is due each day this week and Powell himself making another appearance on Wednesday Markets anticipate further rate increases at the Fed's subsequent meetings, with pricing indicating nearly a 90% chance of at least 75 basis points of increases across the Fed's May and June meetings, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. Such high expectations helped the dollar climb steadily in the early part of this year, but with several Fed increases already priced in, it could struggle to gain further traction, analysts say. In the short term, speeches this week by several policymakers at the European Central Bank, including president Christine Lagarde, could also play a role. Fighting is continuing to rage in the eastern European country. Ukraine said there is no question of surrendering the city of Mariupol after Russia called on Ukrainian forces on Sunday to lay down arms in the besieged port city. Also on the agenda in Europe this week is a meeting by the Norwegian Central Bank with a rate hike expected there too.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy capped gains. However, safe-haven support came as fighting in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. Ukraine on Monday rejected Russian calls to surrender the city of Mariupol, and there seems to be no end in sight to a conflict that began with Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24. Two Fed policymakers said on Friday the central bank needs to take more aggressive steps to combat inflation, which prevented further gains for the yellow metal. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wants to raise rates to 1.75% to 2% in 2022. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will both speak later in the day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at the BIS Innovation Summit 2022 on Tuesday, with Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to follow a day later. The auto-catalyst metal is responding better to the conflict in Ukraine, "because with Ukraine officially saying no to Russia, it puts peace talks on the back foot and of course that brings further concerns over supplying constraints moving forward," said Simpson.
  • Oil prices jumped $3 on Monday, with Brent above $110 a barrel, as European Union nations consider joining the United States in a Russian oil embargo, while a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities caused jitters. Prices moved higher ahead of talks this week between European Union governments and U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits that aim to harden the West's response to Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. EU governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia. Early on Monday, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, Iryna Vershchuk, said there was no chance the country's forces would surrender in the besieged eastern port city of Mariupol. With little sign of the conflict easing, the focus returned to whether the market would be able to replace Russian barrels hit by sanctions. Over the weekend, attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group caused a temporary drop in output at a Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) refinery joint venture in Yanbu, feeding concern in a jittery oil products market, where Russia is a key supplier and global inventories are at multiple-year lows. The latest report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, showed some producers are still falling short of their agreed supply quotas. OPEC+ missed its production target by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, three sources told Reuters, under their pact to boost output by 400,000 bpd each month as they wind back sharp cuts made in 2020. The two OPEC countries with the capacity to instantly raise output, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have so far resisted calls from major consuming nations to step up production faster to help drive down oil prices. U.S. energy firms are also struggling to keep the number of active oil rigs up, despite strong prices. The poor supply outlook and high prices prompted the International Energy Agency to outline ways on Friday to cut oil use by 2.7 million bpd within four months, from car-pooling to lower speed limits and cheaper public transport. That would help offset the 3 million bpd of Russian crude and products that the IEA estimated would be off the market by April.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 107.00 107.75-109.40 110.10
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1105 1.1180 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD ¬1.3200-1.3240 1.3285 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 120.00-120.50 121.00 122.00-123.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 105.85-104.90 103.90 103.00-102.00
EURO/USD 1.1025-1.1011 1.0900 1.0820-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2925
USD/JPY 119.10-118.00 117.50 116.80-116.10

Intra-Day Strategy (21st March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1945.28/oz and low of US$1917.82/oz. Gold down 1.097% at US$1921.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.43/oz and low of US$24.82/oz settled down by 1.639% at US$24.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US104.48/bbl, intraday low of US$100.81/bbl and settled up by % to close at US$103.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 107.00-110.10 with stop loss at 110.10; targeting 105.85-104.90-103.90 and 103.00-102.00-101.20. Buy above 105.85-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 107.00-107.75-109.40 and 110.10-111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.85-104.90
S2     103.90
S3     103.00-102.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     107.00
R2     107.75-109.40
R3     110.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.703 Sell
20-DMA   101.19 Sell
50-DMA   93.42 Buy
100-DMA   86.55 Buy
200-DMA   78.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.108 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.434 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1002/EUR, high of US$1.1118/EUR and settled the day down by 0.363% to close at US$1.1049/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1010-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1025-1.1011
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090-1.1105
R2     1.1180
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3110/GBP, high of US$1.3196/GBP and settled the day up by 0.241% to close at US$1.3177/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3070-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2925

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     ¬1.3200-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.244

Buy
20-DMA   1.3241 Buy
50-DMA   1.3366 Buy
100-DMA   1.3447 Buy
200-DMA   1.3 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY118.46/USD and made an intraday high of JPY119.39/USD and settled the day up 0.497% at JPY119.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 120.10-123.00 with risk above 122.00 targeting 118.00-117.50-116.80 and 116.10-115.50. Long positions above 119.10-115.50 with targets of 119.10-120.00-120.50 and 121.00-122.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     119.10-118.00
S2     117.50
S3     116.80-116.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     120.00-120.50
R2     121.00
R3     122.00-123.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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