AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, while the yen fell through the 120 mark for the first time since 2016. Investors continued to digest a hawkish speech from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that raised bets on higher U.S. interest rates and widened the policy gap on a dovish Bank of Japan. U.S. bonds and interest-rate futures retreated further overnight after Powell said policymakers needed to move "expeditiously" and teased the possibility of 50 basis point rate hikes. Fed funds futures moved to price in an almost 2/3 chance of a 50 basis point hike in May 2022. They now predict the benchmark rate, which is currently below 0.5%, exceeding 2.5% in 2023. Benchmark 10-year U.S. yields soared 14 bps and, at 2.0914%, the gap on anchored 10-year Japanese yields is the widest in more than two and a half years. The moves in the bond markets, alongside the continued fighting after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 lent broad strength to the dollar elsewhere. China’s State Council pledged stronger monetary policy support on Monday but cautioned against flooding the market with liquidity. The government vowed to avoid measures that can hurt market sentiment. Expectations are also growing that the People’s Bank of China will loosen monetary policy to support the economy.
  • The dollar was buttressed by new bets on U.S. rate hikes on Tuesday, while investors unloaded yen and sent it spearing below the psychological 120 level as the Bank of Japan looks increasingly isolated in its dovish policy stance. The yen fell 0.8% and hit a six-year low of 120.46 in the Tokyo afternoon, having lost more than 4% on the dollar this month as leaping U.S. yields and a deteriorating trade balance suck cash from the world's third-biggest economy. Yen crosses also suffered, with the euro making a five-week high of 132.33, while the Japanese currency slumped to a four-year low on the Aussie and a 6-1/2 year low on the Swiss franc. Japan must maintain ultra-loose monetary policy lest inflation hurt the economy, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday - a stark contrast with hawkish overnight comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell had sent U.S. yields to multi- year highs by putting the possibility of 50 basis point (bp) rate hikes on the table. Fed funds futures moved to price in a 2/3 chance of a 50 bp hike in May and now anticipate the benchmark rate - currently below 0.5% - exceeding 2.5% in 2023.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, as U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year highs. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took a more hawkish stance on inflation, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict also gave the safe-haven asset a boost. Powell warned that the Fed would raise interest rates by bigger-than-usual amounts if necessary to bring down "much too high" inflation. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at the BIS innovation summit later in the day. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Powell will speak a day later. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 2.3% for the first time since May 2019. A closely watched gap between rates for two- and 10-year Treasury notes flattened further, indicating a potential economic downturn. Sharp (OTC:SHCAY) moves in the U.S. Treasury market are increasingly pointing to the risk of an approaching recession, with markets doubting the Fed's plan to engineer a "soft landing" for the economy as it hikes interest rates to fight inflation, according to market experts. However, the Ukraine conflict that has been going on since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24 buffered the yellow metal’s fall. Ukraine said on Monday that it would not obey ultimatums from Russia to stop defending the city of Mariupol.
  • Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as some European Union members discussed a potential oil embargo on Russia and attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group on Saudi energy and water desalination facilities sent jitters through the market. Both contracts had settled up more than 7% on Monday as the potential for more supply disruptions weighed on the market. European Union foreign ministers are split on whether to join the United States in sanctioning Russian oil, with some countries including Germany arguing that the bloc is too dependent on Russia's fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia has warned it would not bear responsibility for disruptions to global supply following escalating attacks on its facilities by Yemen's Houthi movement. The comments came after the group fired missiles and drones at facilities of the Saudi state oil firm over the weekend, causing a temporary drop in refinery output. Analysts said that there are additional concerns over OPEC+ output that could exacerbate supply concerns. Meanwhile, {{8849|U.S. crcrude oil inventories were likely unchanged last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Analysts estimated stockpiles of gasoline fell about 2.1 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were expected to have decreased by 1.6 million barrels. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 112.00-112.90 113.50 114.00-114.90
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1105 1.1180 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3240 1.3285 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 120.50-121.00 122.00 123.00-123.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 110.10-109.40 107.75 107.00-105.85
EURO/USD 1.1025-1.1011 1.0900 1.0820-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2925
USD/JPY 120.00-119.10 118.00 117.50-116.80

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1941.08/oz and low of US$1917.86/oz. Gold down 0.714% at US$1935.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.29/oz and low of US$24.87/oz settled up by 1.046% at US$25.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US104.48/bbl, intraday low of US$100.81/bbl and settled up by 6.91% to close at US$103.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 107.00-110.10 with stop loss at 110.10; targeting 105.85-104.90-103.90 and 103.00-102.00-101.20. Buy above 105.85-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 107.00-107.75-109.40 and 110.10-111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.10-109.40
S2     107.75
S3     107.00-105.85

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     112.00-112.90
R2     113.50
R3     114.00-114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.946 Sell
20-DMA   102.65 Sell
50-DMA   95.40 Buy
100-DMA   88.22 Buy
200-DMA   80.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.206 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.580 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1009/EUR, high of US$1.1069/EUR and settled the day down by 0.290% to close at US$1.1018/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1010-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1025-1.1011
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090-1.1105
R2     1.1180
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3126/GBP, high of US$1.3209/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0501% to close at US$1.3163/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3140-1.2850 with target 1.3070-1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3200-1.3300 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970-1.2925 and 1.2850-1.2790 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140-1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2925

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.244

Buy
20-DMA   1.3241 Buy
50-DMA   1.3366 Buy
100-DMA   1.3447 Buy
200-DMA   1.3 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY119.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY119.49/USD and settled the day up 0.316% at JPY119.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 120.10-123.00 with risk above 122.00 targeting 118.00-117.50-116.80 and 116.10-115.50. Long positions above 119.10-115.50 with targets of 119.10-120.00-120.50 and 121.00-122.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     120.00-119.10
S2     118.00
S3     117.50-116.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     120.50-121.00
R2     122.00
R3     123.00-123.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buyv
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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