AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was flat against major peers on Wednesday as the boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive stance early this week faded and investors waited for President Joe Biden to unveil new sanctions against Russia during his trip to Europe. Biden, who heads to Brussels on Wednesday for talks with NATO and European leaders, will push Europe to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas, and could announce new sanctions on members of the Russian parliament over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Oil Prices dipped on Tuesday as the European Union seems unlikely to agree to a ban on Russian oil which would also likely weigh on the euro Leuchtmann said the euro, with the European Central Bank trailing peers in the global monetary cycle, was bound to suffer as "the Fed is likely to be far more aggressive in addressing the inflationary consequences than the ECB". The yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year yields eased to 2.37% in European morning trading after jumping on Monday when U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door for raising interest rates by more than 25 basis points at upcoming policy meetings in order to combat inflation. The euro ticked down 0.09% at $1.1022, while sterling eased 0.25% at $1.3230 after touching its highest against the dollar in nearly three weeks. British inflation shot up faster than expected last month to a new 30-year high, worsening a historic squeeze on household finances that finance minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to ease in a budget update later on Wednesday.* Britain has the second-highest annual inflation rate among Group of Seven countries, behind only the United States as global commodity and energy prices soar, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. High commodity prices have been a clear negative for the yen, as Japan imports the bulk of its energy, widening the country's trade deficit. Sweden's crown ticked up against the dollar and the euro as the Swedish deputy central bank governor, Anna Breman, said plans to hike the benchmark rate and shrink its balance sheet might need to be brought forward to tame inflation. [nS3N2TT007)
  • The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, with the Japanese yen weakening, as rising commodity prices and expectations of a faster Federal Reserve tightening cycle continued to drive moves. The dollar has continued to gain strength from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech earlier this week, where he signaled the central bank could hike interest rates by more than 25 basis points at upcoming policy meetings if the policymakers feel it necessary to tame inflation. The Fed raised the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point at their meeting last week, the first increase since December 2018, and signaled six more hikes of that size this year. This gap is most obvious when compared with Japan’s debt, with the 10-year JGB yielding just 0.22%, and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintaining that Tokyo must maintain its accommodative monetary policy for some time. Also weighing on the yen are the higher commodity prices, and energy prices in particular, with Japan importing the bulk of its energy, widening the country's trade deficit. He is likely to announce plans for more sanctions on Moscow and will likely put pressure on European leaders to boycott Russian oil. Attention will also be on the U.K. Chancellor's Spring Statement later in the session, amid speculation Rishi Sunak will announce support measures to help consumers suffering from a cost of living crisis.
  • Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as worries over the Ukraine crisis supported demand for the safe-haven metal, although calls from U.S. Federal Reserve officials for sharper interest rate hikes to combat inflation weighed on market sentiment. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate to 3% this year and move aggressively to keep inflation under control. The market is pricing in a 72.2% probability that the Fed will hike the fed fund rates by 50 basis points in May. Odds for a bigger hike jumped from just over 50% on Monday. Gold is sensitive to higher U.S. interest rates and yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The optimism around a Ukraine resolution is starting to fade and that has left some traders thinking that there is potential for a break to the upside, said McCarthy. The West plans to announce more sanctions against the Kremlin amid a worsening humanitarian crisis despite talks between Ukraine and Russia inching forward.
  • Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid volatile trading on increasing concerns of global supply tightness from sanctions imposed on Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, and on signs that exports from Kazakhstan may be disrupted. The market remains on edge over the prospect of further sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, after its invasion of Ukraine, actions that Moscow calls a "special operation". U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce more Russian sanctions when he meets with European leaders on Thursday in Brussels, including an emergency meeting of NATO. Adding to concerns about supply, Russian and Kazakhstan oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) from the Black Sea may fall by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd), or 1% of global oil production, because of storm-damaged berths, a Russian official said on Tuesday. Plunging crude stockpiles in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, also added to the apprehensions around supply. The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ended March 18, according to market sources, counter to analysts' forecasts for an increase. Nine analysts polled by Reuters on average had estimated crude inventories rose by 100,000 barrels in the week to March 18. Official U.S. inventory data is due from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 112.00-112.90 113.50 114.00-114.90
EURO/USD 1.1025-1.1090 1.1105 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD ¬1.3240-1.3285 1.3320 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 121.00-122.00 123.00 123.60-124.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,877
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.40
Crude Oil 110.10-109.40 107.75 107.00-105.85
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.0880 1.0800-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3140 1.3070 1.3035-1.2970
USD/JPY 120.50-1120.00 119.10 118.00-117.50

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1938.25/oz and low of US$1910.47/oz. Gold up 0.737% at US$1921.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1941-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900 and 1888-1877. Buy in between 1925-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,877
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.36/oz and low of US$24.56/oz settled down by 1.679% at US$24.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US112.84/bbl, intraday low of US$106.67/bbl and settled down by 2.02% to close at US$108.27/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 107.00-110.10 with stop loss at 110.10; targeting 105.85-104.90-103.90 and 103.00-102.00-101.20. Buy above 105.85-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 107.00-107.75-109.40 and 110.10-111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.10-109.40
S2     107.75
S3     107.00-105.85

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     112.00-112.90
R2     113.50
R3     114.00-114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.946 Sell
20-DMA   102.65 Sell
50-DMA   95.40 Buy
100-DMA   88.22 Buy
200-DMA   80.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.206 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.580 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1045/EUR, high of US$1.1045/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0989% to close at US$1.1028/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1010-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.0880
S3     1.0800-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1025-1.1090
R2     1.1105
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3119/GBP, high of US$1.3273/GBP and settled the day up by 0.719% to close at US$1.3258/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3200-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3140
S2     1.3070
S3     1.3035-1.2970

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     ¬1.3240-1.3285
R2     1.3320
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY119.42/USD and made an intraday high of JPY121.02/USD and settled the day up 1.135% at JPY120.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 121.10-123.00 with risk above 122.00 targeting 120.10-119.00-118.00 and 117.50-116.80-116.10. Long positions above 120.10-115.50 with targets of 119.10-120.00-120.50 and 121.00-122.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     120.50-1120.00
S2     119.10
S3     118.00-117.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     121.00-122.00
R2     123.00
R3     123.60-124.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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