AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, and the Japanese yen was set for its worst week in two years. Rising import costs and low interest rates contributed to the yen’s downward trend, but commodity currencies were set for a second consecutive weekly gain on the dollar as export prices continue to soar. Japanese data released earlier in the day showed that the Tokyo consumer price index (CPI) for March 2022 grew 1.3%, and the Tokyo core CPI grew 0.8%, year-on-year. The CPI Tokyo excluding food and energy also grew 0.2% month-on-month. The latest fall was triggered by hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier in the week that also drove a surge in U.S. yields. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, for its part, stuck to a more dovish tone than the Fed, but some investors warned that, at a six-year low, the yen is falling towards some uncomfortable depths. Concerns that rising energy and food costs stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 could hurt the European economy continue. The euro has been slightly softer throughout the week and was pinned at $1.1005. The Russian rouble traded firmly in Thursday’s European session after President Vladimir Putin vowed to start selling gas to "unfriendly" countries in the currency. However, it lost some of these gains in thin offshore trade and last traded at 102 per dollar.
  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, and the Japanese yen was set for its worst week in two years. Rising import costs and low interest rates contributed to the yen’s downward trend, but commodity currencies were set for a second consecutive weekly gain on the dollar as export prices continue to soar. Concerns that rising energy and food costs stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 could hurt the European economy continue. The euro has been slightly softer throughout the week and was pinned at $1.1005. However, the yen has dropped 2.6% against the dollar for the week, falling past the 120 mark and eyeing a test of major resistance around 123.70. It has lost nearly 6% through March 2022 to date and dropped some 8% against the Australian dollar in eight sessions. The latest fall was triggered by hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier in the week that also drove a surge in U.S. yields. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, for its part, stuck to a more dovish tone than the Fed, but some investors warned that, at a six-year low, the yen is falling towards some uncomfortable depths. Recent movements in the bond market are also putting central banks between a rock and a hard place. Defending a challenge to yield curve control could further weaken the yen. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hit 0.235% on Friday, near its 0.25% upper limit. The Russian rouble traded firmly in Thursday’s European session after President Vladimir Putin vowed to start selling gas to "unfriendly" countries in the currency. However, it lost some of these gains in thin offshore trade and last traded at 102 per dollar.
  • Oil prices inched lower on Friday as supply concerns eased as countries in the European Union remained split on imposing an oil embargo on Russia while the United States and allies considered releasing more oil from storage to cool markets. Both contracts were headed for their first weekly gains in three weeks, with Brent on track for a 10% jump and WTI on course for a 7% rise amid broader fears of a supply crunch as the EU mulled a boycott of Russian oil earlier in the week. OPEC sources said that officials believe a possible European Union ban on oil from its partner Russia would hurt consumers and that the group has conveyed its concerns to Brussels. While the United States and Britain have targeted Russian oil, such an action poses a challenge for the EU, which relies on Russia for 40% of its gas. Supply concerns also heightened after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast stopped exports on Wednesday after being damaged by a major storm. Kazazkstan said on Thursday it expects the CPC to resume shipping crude within a month, but added it may reroute some oil towards tankers on the Caspian Sea and pipelines going to Russia's Samara and to China. Reflecting the market's volatility, the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) raised margins for Brent futures by 19% for the May contract as of Friday, marking the third rise this year and making it more expensive to trade. Futures margin rates are hiked when markets are volatile, forcing traders to increase the deposit they hold at the exchange for each contract to prove they can deliver on their obligations. Helping ease prices, the United States and its allies were discussing a possible further coordinated release of oil from storage, U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Thursday. Separately, the United States was set to unveil a deal on Friday to supply Europe with more U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) for this year and next, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,950-1,958 1,965 1,974-1,980
Silver-XAG 26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 110.10-112.00 112.90 113.50-114.00
EURO/USD 1.1025-1.1090 1.1105 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD 1.3240-1.3285 1.3320 1.3360-1.3400
USD/JPY 122.00-123.00 123.60 124.00-124.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,925 1,911 1,900-1,889
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.80 24.30 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 109.40-108.90 107.50 106.20-104.60
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0820 1.0880 1.0800-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3140 1.3070 1.3035-1.2970
USD/JPY 121.00-120.50 120.00 119.10-118.00

Intra-Day Strategy (25th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1966.14/oz and low of US$1937.32/oz. Gold up 0.696% at US$1957.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

n daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,941-1,925
S2     1,911
S3     1,900-1,889
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,950-1,958
R2     1,965
R3     1,974-1,980

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.84/oz and low of US$24.95/oz settled up by 1.689% at US$25.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.80
S2     24.30
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US115.81/bbl, intraday low of US$109.84/bbl and settled down by 2.87% to close at US$110.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 110.00-114.00 with stop loss at 114.00; targeting 109.40-108.90-107.50 and 106.20-104.60. Buy above 109.40-114.00 with risk daily closing below 114.00 and targeting 110.10-112.00-112.90 and 113.50-114.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.40-108.90
S2     107.50
S3     106.20-104.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     110.10-112.00
R2     112.90
R3     113.50-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.807 Sell
20-DMA   104.56 Sell
50-DMA   97.05 Buy
100-DMA   89.49 Buy
200-DMA   80.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.206 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.580 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0965/EUR, high of US$1.1013/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0926% to close at US$1.0996/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1010-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0820
S2     1.0880
S3     1.0800-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1025-1.1090
R2     1.1105
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3156/GBP, high of US$1.3213/GBP and settled the day down by 0.140% to close at US$1.3182/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3200-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140
S2     1.3070
S3     1.3035-1.2970

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3240-1.3285
R2     1.3320
R3     1.3360-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY120.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY122.40/USD and settled the day up 1.016% at JPY122.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 122.00-124.90 with risk above 124.90 targeting 121.00-120.50-120.10 and 119.00-118.00-117.50. Long positions above 121.00-118.50 with targets of 122.00-122.90 and 123.60-124.00-124.90 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     121.00-120.50
S2     120.00
S3     119.10-118.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     122.00-123.00
R2     123.60
R3     124.00-124.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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