Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday while the Japanese yen recovered a little from heavy selling as the Bank of Japan continued its dovish monetary policy stance. Japan's central bank bought a little more than $500 million in bonds on Monday and another $2 billion earlier Tuesday, having vowed to make unlimited purchases in the market until Thursday to defend its 10-year yield target of 0.25%. This contrasts sharply with most central banks across the rest of the world, including importantly the U.S. Federal Reserve, which are hiking rates, pushing their respective yields higher. Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1000, benefiting slightly from the hope that peace talks due to start later Tuesday in Turkey could bring an end to the Ukraine/Russia war, which is now in its second month. That said, the single currency remains weak with the latest data from the GfK institute showing German consumer morale looks set to slump heading into April as the war in Ukraine weighs on households' income expectations. The institute said its consumer sentiment index fell to -15.5 points heading into April from a revised -8.5 points a month earlier, the lowest since February 2021.
• The U.S. dollar was slightly lower, just off its highest since May 2020, while the yen staged a modest rebound after crashing to its lowest level since August 2015 on Monday. Any step towards a ceasefire or a potential peace deal would support the single currency as the euro area is seen suffering the most significant economic impact of the conflict Ukraine and the United States hold little hope of a breakthrough at the meeting later on Tuesday, even though Russia's invasion appeared to have stalled on several fronts. Versus a basket of currencies, the dollar was down 0.2% at 98.924, not far from its highest level since May 2020 at 99.415 Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would closely watch currency moves to prevent a "bad" weak yen that hurts the economy. The Bank of Japan on Tuesday kept up its relentless quest to defend a key yield cap by offering to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds, putting even more downward pressure on the yen. China's offshore yuan was little changed against the greenback at 6.3831 after new pandemic restrictions in Shanghai. It hit its lowest since October 2021 at 6.4106 in mid-March. Shanghai, China's most populous city, tightened the first phase of a two-stage COVID-19 lockdown, asking some residents to stay indoors.
• Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, alongside the dollar. Climbing yields offset hopes for talks that Russia and Ukraine will resume later in the week to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Gold futures fell 0.93% to $1,921.70 by 1 AM ET (5 AM GMT). The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched down on Tuesday held firm at a three-week high hit in the previous session. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note were also near three-year highs. Ukraine and Russia are set to resume face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, later in the day. Ukraine said that its top objective at the talks is to secure a ceasefire to the fighting triggered by the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, although it is joined by the U.S. in its skepticism of a breakthrough. In Asia Pacific, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong slumped 13.7% to their lowest level in nearly a year in February 2022 due to the Lunar New Year holidays and high prices, according to official data. The financial hub of Shanghai also reported a record 4,381 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and 96 symptomatic cases for March 28, according to the city government’s official WeChat account. The city also remains under a two-stage, nine-day lockdown. Two gold industry associations said on Monday that they are working with miners, refiners, traders, and shippers to create a database of gold bars in an effort to prevent trade in counterfeit metal and allow buyers of bullion to trace its origin.
• Oil prices on Tuesday extended losses from the previous day as Ukraine and Russia headed for peace talks and on concerns about demand as China's financial hub of Shanghai shut down to curb a surge in COVID-19 cases. Ukraine and Russia were set to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday for their first peace talks in over two weeks. Sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine have curtailed oil supply and sent prices to 14-year highs earlier this month. Offsetting concerns about tight supply, Shanghai's two-stage lockdown over nine days is expected to hit fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer. Shanghai accounts for about 4% of China's oil consumption, ANZ Research analysts said. The market is also waiting on a meeting on Thursday of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively known as OPEC+. The group will likely stick to plans for a modest increase in oil output in May, several sources close to the group said, despite a surge in prices and calls from the United States and others for more supply. Worldwide demand has risen to nearly pre-pandemic levels, but supply has been hindered, as OPEC+ has been slow to restore supply after cuts enacted during the pandemic in 2020. U.S. oil exports have climbed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and barrels of domestic oil that would typically go to the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub are instead being exported via the Gulf Coast, traders said.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1958.97/oz and low of US$1916.85/oz. Gold down 1.821% at US$1922.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.78/oz and low of US$24.78/oz settled down by 0.047% at US$24.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.00-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US111.34/bbl, intraday low of US$101.93/bbl and settled down by 2.87% to close at US$102.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 105.00-109.90 with stop loss at 109.90; targeting 104.00-104.60-106.20 and 107.50-108.60. Buy above 105.00-110.00 with risk daily closing below 110.00 and targeting 105.00-106.20-107.00 and 107.75-109.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0944/EUR, high of US$1.0999/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0637% to close at US$1.0978/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1260, targeting 1.1010-1.0850-1.0720 and 1.0640- 1.0600-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1010-1.0520 with risk below 1.0520, targeting 1.1050-1.1105-1.1100-1.1270.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3066/GBP, high of US$1.3186/GBP and settled the day down by 0.680% to close at US$1.3081/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3070-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY122.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY125.09/USD and settled the day down 1.443% at JPY123.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 124.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 123.50-123.00-121.00 and 120.50-120.10-119.00. Long positions above 123.50-120.10 with targets of 124.00-124.90-125.50 and 126.00-126.90 with stop below 115.50.