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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar weakened Wednesday as signs of progress in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia boosted risk sentiment to the detriment of this safe haven and the benefit of the euro, while the Japanese yen recovered on fears of official intervention. Additionally, EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1116 following Russia promising on Tuesday to scale down military operations around Kyiv and Ukraine proposing adopting a neutral status, moves that offer hope of progress in ending the conflict between the two countries after face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul. The euro has been battered in recent weeks over fears about the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. That said, these gains for the single currency could be short-lived amid skepticism over Russia’s intentions as well as the sharp gains in U.S. Treasury yields as traders position for aggressive tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A meeting between Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida raised speculation that the country’s senior officials are concerned with the extent of the drop in the yen. Expectations are growing that the Fed will raise rates by a half-point rather than the customary quarter-point increase when it next meets, and traders will look at today’s data dump for confirmation. March's ADP nonfarm employment change data is set to be released Wednesday at 8:15 AM ET (1215 GMT), with consensus forecasts looking for companies to have added 450,000 jobs, while GDP for the fourth quarter, at 8:30 AM ET, is set to show a 7.1% reading from the month before, well above the previous 2.3% release. Also, U.K. shop prices rose in March at the fastest annual pace in more than a decade, suggesting that the Bank of England will continue hiking interest rates to combat inflation.
  • The dollar fell against a basket of peer currencies on Tuesday as reports of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine lifted the euro and reduced the safe-haven appeal of the greenback. Russia said in talks in Istanbul on Tuesday that it would scale down military operations around Ukraine's capital and north, while Kyiv proposed adopting neutral status, in confidence-building steps that were the first signs of progress towards negotiating peace. Any step toward a ceasefire or potential peace deal in Ukraine would support the euro, as Europe is seen suffering a significant economic blow from the conflict, which began with Russia's invasion on Feb. 24 and sent energy prices soaring. Inflation figures of euro zone members for March will begin to roll in on Wednesday, with the composite release on Friday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would closely watch currency moves to prevent a "bad" weak yen that hurts the economy. The Bank of Japan on Tuesday continued to defend a key yield cap by offering to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds, which will likely keep the yen on its back foot. Shanghai, China's most populous city, tightened the first phase of a two-stage COVID-19 lockdown, asking residents to stay indoors.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, remaining near a one-month low hit during the previous session. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine showed progress and dimmed the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. However, a weaker dollar and falling yields limited losses. Ukraine and Russia resumed face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday. During these talks, Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv and another city. However, the U.S. warned the threat was not over, even as Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status in a sign of progress. In Asia Pacific, Japan’s Ministry of Finance said that it will ban shipments of gold to Russia in response to the war in Ukraine. Data released earlier in the day also showed that retail sales contracted 0.8% year on year in February 2022.
  • Oil prices clawed back heavy losses on Wednesday, amid tight supply and growing prospects of new Western sanctions against Russia even as signs of progress emerged from peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. The focus turned to tight supply after the American Petroleum Institute industry group reported crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels in the week ended March 25, according to market sources. That was triple the decline that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average. The market saw a sharp sell-off in the previous session after Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv but reports of attacks continued. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies plan new sanctions on more sectors of Russia's economy that are critical to sustaining its invasion of Ukraine, including military supply chains. Keeping the market tight, major oil producers are unlikely to boost output above their agreed 400,000 barrels per day when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, meet on Thursday, several sources close to the group said. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, key members of OPEC+, said the group would not look to take action against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, saying the group's aim was only to stabilise the market and not to engage in politics. However, oil prices face pressure of weakening demand from China owing to tightened mobility restrictions and lockdowns in multiple cities. The country's financial hub of Shanghai extended its shutdown earlier than scheduled after recording nearly 6,000 new local cases.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th March 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 ,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 104.60-106.20 107.50 108.60-109.50
EURO/USD 1.1145-1.1190 1.1265 1.1295-1.1330
GBP/USD 1.3110-¬1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 122.00-123.00 123.50 124.00-124.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th March 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.80-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.50
Crude Oil 104.00-102.90 102.20 101.40-100.50
EURO/USD 1.1105-1.1025 1.0900 1.0820-1.0880
GBP/USD 1.3070-1.3035 1.2970 1.2900-1.2820
USD/JPY 121.00-120.10 119.60 119.00-118.06

Intra-Day Strategy (30th March 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1929.16/oz and low of US$1889.96/oz. Gold down 0.158% at US$1919.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     ,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.00/oz and low of US$23.95/oz settled down by 0.3100% at US$24.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.80-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US106.80/bbl, intraday low of US$97.63/bbl and settled up by 1.701% to close at US$104.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 105.00-109.90 with stop loss at 109.90; targeting 104.00-104.60-106.20 and 107.50-108.60. Buy above 104.00-100.00 with risk daily closing below 100.00 and targeting 104.60-106.20-107.00 and 107.75-109.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.00-102.90
S2     102.20
S3     101.40-100.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     104.60-106.20
R2     107.50
R3     108.60-109.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.807 Sell
20-DMA   104.56 Sell
50-DMA   97.05 Buy
100-DMA   89.49 Buy
200-DMA   80.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.206 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.580 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0968/EUR, high of US$1.1136/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0637% to close at US$1.0985/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1145-1.1330, targeting 1.1105-1.1025-1.0850 and 1.0720-1.0640- 1.0600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1105-1.0880 with risk below 1.0880, targeting 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265 and 1.1295-1.1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1105-1.1025
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0880

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1145-1.1190
R2     1.1265
R3     1.1295-1.1330

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3050/GBP, high of US$1.3158/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0244% to close at US$1.3092/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3070-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3070-1.3035
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2900-1.2820

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3110-¬1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY121.97/USD and made an intraday high of JPY124.29/USD and settled the day down 0.784% at JPY122.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 124.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 123.50-123.00-121.00 and 120.50-120.10-119.00. Long positions above 123.50-120.10 with targets of 124.00-124.90-125.50 and 126.00-126.90 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     121.00-120.10
S2     119.60
S3     119.00-118.06

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     122.00-123.00
R2     123.50
R3     124.00-124.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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