AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar extended a rebound versus major peers on Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could help the Federal Reserve decide whether to make an interest rate hike of up to 50 basis points next month. The euro edged lower, following its sharp retreat the previous day from a one-month high, as some hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine faded. It was still set for weekly gains. The U.S. currency has also benefited from safe-haven flows as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stumbled, though they are set to resume on Friday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will next decide policy on May 5, with CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool showing a 68.8% chance of a half-percentage-point rate increase. That would follow on from a quarter-point hike on March 16, when the Fed embarked on a new tightening cycle. Another FOMC meeting will follow on June 14-15. Economists predict Friday's Labor Department report will show that close to half a million U.S. jobs were added last month, with the unemployment rate ticking lower while wage growth accelerated. Upside potential for the dollar index remains in scope "amid ongoing waves of fiercely hawkish Fedspeak and an aggressive frontloaded profile that includes almost 100 bps in hikes over the FOMC's next two meetings," Westpac strategists wrote in a client note. They predicted a break above 100 for the dollar index "in coming weeks". As oil prices fell, the commodity-linked Norwegian crown extended its fall to hit a two-week low versus the dollar in early London trading, before recovering some ground to trade at 8.7865. Cryptocurrency bitcoin slumped 1.6% to $45,024, after touching a one-week low as U.S. and European Union lawmakers moved to tighten their cryptocurrency stances.
  • The U.S. dollar edged higher Friday ahead of the release of the widely watched U.S. monthly jobs report, which could help the Federal Reserve decide upon a more aggressive rate tightening cycle. The much anticipated U.S. jobs report for March is due for release at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT) and is expected to show continued signs of an improvement in the labor market, with around another 500,000 new jobs created. The omens for a strong number are good, after data on Wednesday from the ADP Research Institute showed that U.S. companies employed an additional 455,000 people in March, and the weekly initial jobless claims data remained at a very low level on Thursday. The U.S. Federal Reserve lifted interest rates by 25 basis points in March, for the first time since 2018, and a number of central bank policymakers have since indicated that a larger hike of 50 basis points may be needed in May to combat soaring inflation. USD/JPY traded 0.7% higher at 122.44, the pair’s first rise in four sessions as traders looked once more at the difference in government bond yields, with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda making clear this week he’s determined to keep his 0.25% target for 10-year bond yields while the U.S. Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, Fears of an energy crisis in Europe are mounting after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a Friday deadline for European buyers of Russian gas to pay in rubles, something they are not prepared to do. Moscow supplies around a third of all of Europe’s gas. GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3115, also suffering from worries about Russian gas supplies, but supported by the Bank of England repeatedly hiking interest rates to take on soaring consumer inflation. Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.1 in March, the steepest rate of contraction since February 2020, from 50.4 in the previous month. Morgan Stanley cut China’s 2022 economic growth forecast sharply earlier Friday, downgrading its full-year forecast to 4.6% from 5.1%, citing the country’s strict approach to combat COVID infections.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, widening its weekly losses. A stronger dollar outweighed safe-haven demand driven by the little progress made in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and investors await the latest U.S. jobs report for clues on U.S. monetary policy moving forward. Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on Thursday to halt contracts supplying Europe with a third of its gas unless they are paid in Russian roubles. This is his strongest economic comeback to date to the Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. In Asia Pacific, China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 48.1 in March 2022. Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index at 14, and the Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index at 9, for the first quarter of 2022. Down Under in Australia, March’s Australian Industry Group manufacturing index was at 55.7 and the manufacturing PMI at 57.7. Investors now await the latest U.S jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, due later in the day. The figures could also provide a clue to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy. Russian gold and foreign currency reserves fell to $604.4 billion as of Mar. 25, their lowest since August 2021, according to data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia).

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 99.60-100.50 101.40 102.00-102.90
EURO/USD 1.1145-1.1190 1.1265 1.1295-1.1330
GBP/USD 1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 122.00-123.00 123.50 124.00-124.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.55-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.50
Crude Oil 98.20-97.00 96.00 94.35-92.30
EURO/USD 1.1105-1.1025 1.0900 1.0820-1.0880
GBP/USD 1.3110-¬1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2900
USD/JPY 121.00-120.10 119.60 119.00-118.06

Intra-Day Strategy (1st April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1949.67/oz and low of US$1918.95/oz. Gold down 0.231% at US$1937.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.08/oz and low of US$24.55/oz settled down by 0.3454% at US$24.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US106.67/bbl, intraday low of US$98.70/bbl and settled down by 5.69% to close at US$100.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 99.60-103.00 with stop loss at 102.90; targeting 98.20-97.00-96.00 and 94.35-92.30. Buy above 98.20-92.30 with risk daily closing below 92.30 and targeting 99.60-100.50-101.40 and 102.00-102.90-104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     98.20-97.00
S2     96.00
S3     94.35-92.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     99.60-100.50
R2     101.40
R3     102.00-102.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1060/EUR, high of US$1.1184/EUR and settled the day up by 0.645% to close at US$1.1066/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1145-1.1330, targeting 1.1105-1.1025-1.0850 and 1.0720-1.0640- 1.0600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1105-1.0880 with risk below 1.0880, targeting 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265 and 1.1295-1.1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1105-1.1025
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0880

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1145-1.1190
R2     1.1265
R3     1.1295-1.1330

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3105/GBP, high of US$1.3175/GBP and settled the day up by 0.297% to close at US$1.3133/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3110-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3110-¬1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY121.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY122.44/USD and settled the day down 0.077% at JPY121.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 124.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 123.50-123.00-121.00 and 120.50-120.10-119.00. Long positions above 121.00-118.10 with targets of 122.00-123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     121.00-120.10
S2     119.60
S3     119.00-118.06

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     122.00-123.00
R2     123.50
R3     124.00-124.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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