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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar stabilized Monday after last week’s strong jobs report, while the euro weakened as talk of additional sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine ramped up. Friday’s much anticipated U.S. jobs report for March confirmed a strong economy and a tight labor market, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 431,000 jobs last month while February’s release was revised higher to show 750,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 678,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to a new two-year low of 3.6% and wages accelerated, providing room for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply in May. That said, this was widely expected and Fed funds futures have already priced in a very strong chance of a 50 basis point hike next month. Bond yields have responded accordingly, with 2-year Treasury yields climbing near to 2.5%. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 122.72, with the yen falling again, following the heavy beating the Japanese currency took in March on the expectation of higher U.S. interest rates while Japanese rates remained anchored at rock bottom. Elsewhere, EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1044, weighed by talk of fresh sanctions on Moscow after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes in the town of Bucha, something denied by Russia's defense ministry. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said the European Union should talk about ending Russian gas imports, a subject the bloc has steered clear of so far, despite pressure from the U.S. Such a move would have severe economic ramifications on the Eurozone, to the detriment of the single currency, as Russia supplies some 40% of Europe's gas needs. Consumer prices are expected to climb an annual 61.5% in March from 54.4% a month earlier when released later Monday, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Turkey’s central bank, under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has chosen not to lift interest rates for the last three months, meaning Turkey’s interest rates are the world’s lowest when adjusted for prices.
  • Gold prices were steady on Monday as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed following a solid U.S. payrolls report that raised expectations of aggressive rate hikes, while a worsening Ukraine crisis supported safe-haven bids for bullion. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-paying bullion. The dollar made a firm start to the week while Treasury yields were also higher, as the monthly U.S. jobs report indicated a strong labor market and is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on track to maintain its hawkish policy stance. U.S. job data showed the unemployment rate falling to a new two-year low of 3.6% and wages re-accelerating, positioning the Fed to raise interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points in May. Investors are looking forward to any discussion of a 50 basis point rate hike when the Fed releases minutes from its March meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Germany's defence minister said on Sunday the European Union must discuss banning imports of Russian gas, after Ukrainian and European officials accused Russian forces of atrocities.
  • Oil prices gained about $1 on Monday as worries over tight supplies persisted after Germany warned of more sanctions on Russia and talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal paused. Brent crude futures were up 94 cents, or 0.9%, at $105.33 a barrel by 0728 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 92 cents, or 0.9%. at $100.19. Both contracts slipped $1 when markets opened on Monday but rebounded after Iran blamed the United States for pausing talks aimed at reviving their 2015 nuclear deal, which would allow a lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil supplies. This added to concerns about tight supplies. Russian crude and oil products exports have been hit by Western sanctions and buyer aversion after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Germany said on Sunday that the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Russia in the coming days after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes near Kyiv. Russia has rejected allegations of war crimes in what it calls a "special military operation" aimed at demilitarising Ukraine. Estimates of the Russian oil supply loss range from 1 million to 3 million barrels per day (bpd), further tightening global markets that are already grappling with low inventories. Goldman Sachs raised its 2023 oil price forecast to $115 a barrel from $110 a barrel on tight fuel supplies and firm demand despite COVID-19 lockdowns in China and a record release of strategic reserves by the United States. Oil prices slumped about 13% last week after U.S. President Joe Biden announced that up to 1 million bpd of oil would be sold from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for six months starting in May. Biden said the release, the third in six months, will serve as a bridge until domestic producers can boost output and balance supply and demand. The U.S. Energy Department formally outlined a sale of oil from emergency reserves while members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) also agreed to release more oil on Friday. The IEA said the volume will be made public this week. Despite calls from Biden for U.S. energy firms to ramp up production, growth in rig count remains slow as drillers continue to return cash to shareholders from high crude prices rather than boost production. In addition, the United Nations has brokered a two-month truce between a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi group aligned with Iran for the first time in the seven-year conflict. Saudi oil facilities have come under attack by the Houthis during the conflict. In China, the world's top oil importer, demand concerns persist after its most populous city, Shanghai, extended COVID-19 lockdowns. China's transport ministry expects a 20% drop in road traffic and a 55% fall in flights during the three-day Qingming holiday that starts on Sunday after a flare-up of COVID-19 cases in the country.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 99.60-100.50 101.40 102.00-102.90
EURO/USD 1.1105-1.1145 1.1190 1.1265-1.1295
GBP/USD 1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 123.00-123.50 124.00 124.90-125.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,889-1,870 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.55-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.50
Crude Oil 98.20-97.00 96.00 94.35-92.30
EURO/USD 1.1025 1.0900 1.0820-1.0880
GBP/USD 1.3110-¬1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2900
USD/JPY 122.00-121.00 120.10 119.60-119.00

Intra-Day Strategy (4th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1939.35/oz and low of US$1917.88/oz. Gold down 0.620% at US$1925.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,889-1,870
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.85/oz and low of US$24.41/oz settled down by 0.645% at US$24.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US100.59/bbl, intraday low of US$96.88/bbl and settled down by 1.989% to close at US$98.56/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 99.60-103.00 with stop loss at 102.90; targeting 98.20-97.00-96.00 and 94.35-92.30. Buy above 98.20-92.30 with risk daily closing below 92.30 and targeting 99.60-100.50-101.40 and 102.00-102.90-104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     98.20-97.00
S2     96.00
S3     94.35-92.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     99.60-100.50
R2     101.40
R3     102.00-102.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1027/EUR, high of US$1.10754/EUR and settled the day down by 0.233% to close at US$1.1040/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1105-1.1330, targeting 1.1105-1.1025-1.0850 and 1.0720-1.0640- 1.0600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.1025-1.0880 with risk below 1.0880, targeting 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265 and 1.1295-1.1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1025
S2     1.0900
S3     1.0820-1.0880

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1105-1.1145
R2     1.1190
R3     1.1265-1.1295

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.313 Buy
20-DMA   1.1079 Sell
50-DMA   1.1191 Sell
100-DMA   1.1307 Sell
200-DMA   1.1466 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.688 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3085/GBP, high of US$1.3149/GBP and settled the day down by 0.1477% to close at US$1.3113/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3110-¬1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY121.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY123.02/USD and settled the day up 0.670% at JPY122.49/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     122.00-121.00
S2     120.10
S3     119.60-119.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     123.00-123.50
R2     124.00
R3     124.90-125.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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