AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar traded in a tight range Tuesday, while the euro edged lower on talk of additional sanctions on Russia and the Australian dollar received a boost from a hawkish central bank. The dollar has been drifting this week so far as investors await the arrival of the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, due on Wednesday. Expectations are building that the central bank will move more aggressively at its meeting in May, especially after a jobs report that showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 431,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate fell to a new two-year low of 3.6%. Ahead of the Fed minutes, Tuesday sees the release of ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI data for March, at 10:00 AM EST (1400 GMT), which is expected to show increased momentum in March, while speeches from Fed policymakers Neel Kashkari, Lael Brainard and John Williams will also be closely studied. EUR/USD was largely unchanged at 1.0972, hovering above a one-week low, on talk of fresh sanctions on Moscow following alleged atrocities on civilians by Russian forces in the Ukrainian town of Bucha. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Putin and his supporters would "feel the consequences" of events in Bucha, while Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, stated that new U.S. sanctions against Moscow would be announced this week.
  • The dollar gained on Monday, rising for three straight sessions, as civilian killings in north Ukraine and the prospect of increased sanctions pushed investors to seek safety in the greenback. The U.S. currency also continued to benefit from a strong non-farm payrolls report for March that backed expectations for a hefty half a percentage point tightening by the Federal Reserve at next month's meeting. French President Emmanuel Macron called for new sanctions and said there were clear indications Russian forces had committed war crimes in the town of Bucha. The Kremlin denied any accusations related to the murder of civilians in the town. German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said the European Union should discuss ending Russian gas imports. Russia supplies some 40% of Europe's gas needs. Data on Friday showed U.S. unemployment hit a two-year low of 3.6% last month, leading investors to assess if the numbers would strengthen the Fed's resolve to tackle inflation by lifting rates sharply. Speculators' net long bets on the dollar rose to an 11-week high in the latest week. Markets in mainland China were closed for a public holiday, but in offshore trade the yuan was kept under pressure by concerns over a lengthening lockdown in Shanghai, where authorities are seeking to virus-test all 26 million residents.
  • Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar held firm on rising prospects of further sanctions against Russia and possibly more aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to rein in inflationary pressures. The dollar index was steady after three straight sessions of gains as talks of further sanctions against Moscow increased. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. U.S. two-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since early-2019 and 10-year yields ticked higher on Monday. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-paying bullion.
  • Oil prices gained about $1 on Monday as worries over tight supplies persisted after Germany Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the United States and Europe planned new sanctions to punish Russia over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, raising concerns of tighter global supply, while Iran's nuclear talks with world powers stalled. The West is planning new sanctions to punish Russia over civilian killings in Ukraine. U.S President Joe Biden's national security adviser said new U.S. sanctions against Moscow would be announced this week. There were mounting expectations Europe would take action to reduce transactions with Russia's energy sector, further squeezing supplies, OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley said. To calm oil prices, U.S.-allied countries agreed last week to their second coordinated oil release from strategic reserves in a month. However, Japanese industry minister Koichi Hagiuda said on Tuesday the International Energy Agency (IEA) was still examining details of the release. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, expects oil prices to trade between $90 and $120 per barrel during the second quarter of the year, amid several uncertainties in the market. The United States still believes there is an opportunity to overcome the remaining differences with Iran in talks over its nuclear programme, State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 941-1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 27.00-27.50
Crude Oil 100.50-99.60 107.75-108.90 107.75-108.90
EURO/USD 1.1025-1.1105 1.1145 1.1190-1.1265
GBP/USD 1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 123.00-123.50 124.00 124.90-125.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.55-24.30 23.95 23.80-23.50
Crude Oil 102.90-102.00 101.40 100.50-99.60
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.0900 1.0820 1.0880-1.0805
GBP/USD 1.3110-¬1.3070 1.3035 1.2970-1.2900
USD/JPY 122.00-121.00 120.10 119.60-119.00

Intra-Day Strategy (5th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1936.80/oz and low of US$1917.88/oz. Gold down 0.620% at US$1932.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     941-1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.83/oz and low of US$24.27/oz settled down by 0.276% at US$24.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 25.40-24.80 and 24.40-23.90-23.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-24.30
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on made an intra‐day high of US103.01/bbl, intraday low of US$97.27/bbl and settled up by 4.70% to close at US$102.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 104.00-108.90 with stop loss at 108.90; targeting 102.90-102.00-101.40 and 100.50-99.60-98.20. Buy above 102.90-98.20 with risk daily closing below 98.20 and targeting 104.00-106.10-107.00 and 107.75-108.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     102.90-102.00
S2     101.40
S3     100.50-99.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     100.50-99.60
R2     107.75-108.90
R3     107.75-108.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0959/EUR, high of US$1.1053/EUR and settled the day down by 0.553% to close at US$1.0968/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1105-1.1330, targeting 1.0950-1.0900-1.0850 and 1.0720-1.0640- 1.0600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0950-1.0880 with risk below 1.0880, targeting 1.1105-1.1145-1.1190 and 1.1265-1.1295-1.1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0950-1.0900
S2     1.0820
S3     1.0880-1.0805

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1025-1.1105
R2     1.1145
R3     1.1190-1.1265

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3085/GBP, high of US$1.3136/GBP and settled the day up by 0.210% to close at US$1.3113/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3110-1.2850 with target 1.3250-1.3290-1.3320 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2850. Sell in between 1.3240-1.3400 with targets at 1.3200-1.3140-1.3035 and 1.2970-1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3110-¬1.3070
S2     1.3035
S3     1.2970-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.9701.3509 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY122.26/USD and made an intraday high of JPY122.95/USD and settled the day up 0.143% at JPY122.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     122.00-121.00
S2     120.10
S3     119.60-119.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     123.00-123.50
R2     124.00
R3     124.90-125.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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