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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar strengthened Wednesday on raised expectations of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, while the euro was weighed by the prospect of additional sanctions on Russia. Driving the stronger tone in the dollar were comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, who is awaiting confirmation as Vice Chair of the U.S. central bank, who called for interest rate increases and rapid reductions to the Fed's balance sheet to bring U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year. Brainard is normally seen as a more dovish policymaker, and her comments resulted in U.S. bond yields climbing sharply, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to its highest since March 2019. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last month, its first increase since 2018, and expectations have been building that the central bank will move more aggressively at its meeting in May. The minutes from the Fed meeting last month are due for release later Wednesday, and traders will parse their words carefully for guidance on what the policymakers plan to do next. Elsewhere, EUR/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.0884, falling to its lowest level in nearly a month, with the U.S., European Union, and Group of Seven coordinating on a fresh round of sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. bar on investment in the country and an EU ban on coal imports.
  • The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, slowly heading towards its highest level in nearly two years. The U.S currency jumped overnight over hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers, while the euro was down as the West mulls further sanctions on Russia. The European Union (EU), alongside the U.S. and the Group of Seven, is coordinating a fresh round of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions could involve banning the purchase of Russian coal and preventing Russian ships from entering EU ports. The sanctions are the latest since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24 and are in response to the discovery of dead civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.
  • Gold prices dipped on Wednesday after the dollar and Treasury yields jumped to multi-year highs on hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials and as cautious traders braced for the U.S. central bank's minutes from its latest meeting. The dollar scaled its highest in nearly two years as Fed officials pushed for a quick reduction in the central bank's bloated balance sheet, with one of them expressing openness to hefty rate increases of half a percentage point. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. Minutes from last month's Fed meeting, due at 1800 GMT, may add detail to policymakers' thinking about how quickly they could move to reduce bondholdings and lift interest rates. The Fed's stance has been sounding ever more hawkish. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates and higher yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
  • Oil futures rose on Wednesday, paring early losses, as the threat of new sanctions on Russia raised supply concerns, countering fears of weaker demand following a build in U.S. crude stockpiles and Shanghai's extended lockdown. The United States and its allies on Wednesday prepared new sanctions on Moscow over civilian killings in northern Ukraine, which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described as "war crimes" demanding commensurate punishment. Russia denied targeting civilians. Proposed EU sanctions, which the bloc's 27 member states must approve, would ban buying Russian coal and prevent Russian ships from entering EU ports. Britain also urged G7 and NATO nations to agree a timetable to phase out oil and gas imports from Russia. The growing supply concerns erased earlier price falls due to a stronger dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, and a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. crude and distillate stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories dipped, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended April 1, against analysts' forecast of a decline of 2.1 million barrels. Demand worries also mounted after authorities in top oil importer China extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre's 26 million people. Meanwhile, member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA) were still discussing how much oil they would together release from storage to cool markets, three sources told Reuters, adding that an announcement was expected in coming days.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,941 1,950 1,958-1,965
Silver-XAG 24.55-25.40 26.00 26.50-27.00
Crude Oil 102.00-102.90 104.00 106.10-107.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0950 1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3110-1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 124.00 124.90-125.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.20–23.95 23.80 23.50-23.01
Crude Oil 100.50-99.60 98.45 96.60-95.10
EURO/USD 1.0870-1.0820 1.0805 1.0765-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3000 1.2970 1.2900-1.2820
USD/JPY 123.50-123.00 122.00 121.00-120.10

Intra-Day Strategy (6th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1944.48/oz and low of US$1917.80/oz. Gold down 0.483% at US$1923.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1941-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,925-1,941
R2     1,950
R3     1,958-1,965

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.00/oz and low of US$24.21/oz settled down by 0.831% at US$24.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.55-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.20–23.95
S2     23.80
S3     23.50-23.01

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.55-25.40
R2     26.00
R3     26.50-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on made an intra‐day high of US103.01/bbl, intraday low of US$97.27/bbl and settled up by 4.70% to close at US$102.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 102.00-108.90 with stop loss at 108.90; targeting 102.90-102.00-101.40 and 100.50-99.60-98.20. Buy above 100.50-95.20 with risk daily closing below 95.20 and targeting 102.00-102.90-104.00 and 106.10-107.00-107.75.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     100.50-99.60
S2     98.45
S3     96.60-95.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     102.00-102.90
R2     104.00
R3     106.10-107.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0899/EUR, high of US$1.0988/EUR and settled the day down by 0.575% to close at US$1.0904/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0870-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0870-1.0820
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0765-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0950
R2     1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3066/GBP, high of US$1.3166/GBP and settled the day down by 0.333% to close at US$1.3069/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3110-1.3240-1.3290 and 1.3320-1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3110-1.3400 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.3000
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2900-1.2820

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3110-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.81346.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY122.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY123.66/USD and settled the day up 0.665% at JPY123.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     123.50-123.00
S2     122.00
S3     121.00-120.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1    
R2     124.00
R3     124.90-125.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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