AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Thursday, but still remained close to a two-year high after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed policymakers were preparing to move aggressively to head off inflation. Wednesday saw the release of the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting when the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 They showed the policymakers have laid out a plan to shrink their balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year, and also indicated that “many” viewed one or more half-point increases as possibly appropriate going forward if price pressures fail to moderate. While this content was broadly within expectations, the Fed’s determination to move quickly and aggressively to combat inflation gave the dollar a boost. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0918, rebounding after hitting a one-month low of 1.0874 on Wednesday as fresh sanctions were levied on Moscow after allegations of atrocities by Russian troops in Ukraine. Also weighing on the single currency are the rising chances of the far-right, anti-EU Marine Le Pen winning the French presidential elections this month, with the first-round vote taking place on Sunday. The minutes from the European Central Bank’s last meeting are due later in the day and are unlikely to be anything as hawkish as the Fed's with the bloc’s central bank having to cope with slumping growth in the wake of the Ukraine war even as Eurozone inflation soared to a record high of 7.5%. The dollar hovered near a two-year high against a basket of majors on Thursday and pushed commodity currencies further down from recent peaks, after meeting minutes showed the Federal Reserve preparing to move aggressively to head off inflation.
  • The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six currencies, held at 99.546 in Asia trade - close to Wednesday's top of 99.778 which was its highest since May 2020. The euro scraped itself from a one-month trough of $1.0874 to hit $1.0912 in the Tokyo afternoon, but remains under pressure as minutes from the European Central Bank due later in the day are unlikely to sound as decisive as the Fed's. Minutes from the March Fed meeting showed "many" participants were prepared to raise interest rates in 50-basis-point increments in coming months. They also showed general agreement about cutting $95 billion a month from asset holdings which had ballooned during the pandemic. That was more or less in line with market expectations, but policymakers preparedness to begin as soon as May was confronting and will likely keep the dollar elevated. Minutes from the ECB's March meeting, due later in the day, will be watched for insight into policymakers' delicate balancing act to manage soaring inflation and slowing growth. An increasingly close-looking presidential election in France is another wildcard, and the risk of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen beating incumbent Emmanuel Macron has dragged on the euro and French debt ahead of Sunday's first-round vote.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, while the dollar remained near a two-year high after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance in the minutes from its latest meeting. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was close to the multi-year highs hit in the previous session. The Fed released the minutes from its March 2022 meeting on Wednesday, which indicated that the central bank is preparing to move aggressively to curb high inflation. The European Central Bank will also release the minutes from its meeting later in the day. Although expected to espouse a less hawkish tone than the Fed, the ECB is another central bank attempting to strike the right balance to curb inflation without entering a recession. In Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of India will also hand down its policy decision on Friday. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint said in a blog post on Wednesday that sales of gold products in March soared 68% to their highest in a year. The refiner attributed the increase to an increased appetite for the safe-haven yellow metal after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday from a three-week low touched in the previous session after consuming nations announced a huge release of oil from emergency reserves, as worries over tight supplies still clouded the market outlook. Both benchmarks plunged more than 5% in the previous session and hit their lowest closing levels since March 16. International Energy Agency member countries on Wednesday agreed to release 60 million barrels on top of a 180 million-barrel release announced by the United States last week to help drive down prices in a tight market following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But analysts and traders said even with the emergency oil stocks release, supply remained tight. State refiners in China, the world's top oil importer, are honouring existing Russian oil contracts but avoiding new ones despite steep discounts, heeding a call for caution by Beijing. National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) analyst Baden Moore said the latest release plus the IEA's coordinated release announced on March 1 equates to 1 million barrels per day in extra supply from May to the end of 2022, which would cap prices in the near-term. However, "the need to restock reserves, expected in 2023, adds to the forward market tightness where the fundamental supply outlook remains unchanged, tilting the price risk to the upside," he added. Stalled indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving a 2015 agreement on Tehran's nuclear program have further delayed the potential for sanctions on Iranian oil to be lifted, keeping the market tight. Political decisions are needed in Tehran and Washington to overcome remaining issues, negotiators say.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,941 1,950 1,958-1,965
Silver-XAG 24.55-25.40 26.00 26.50-27.00
Crude Oil 98.45-99.60 100.50 102.00-102.90
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0950 1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3110-1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3360
USD/JPY 124.00 124.90-125.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.20–23.95 23.80 23.50-23.01
Crude Oil 96.60-95.10 94.00 92.60-91.40
EURO/USD 1.0870-1.0820 1.0805 1.0765-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3000 1.2970 1.2900-1.2820
USD/JPY 123.50-123.00 122.00 121.00-120.10

Intra-Day Strategy (7th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1933.39/oz and low of US$1914.88/oz. Gold down 0.066% at US$1925.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1925-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1941-1925-1911 and 1900-1888-1877. Buy in between 1911-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,925-1,941
R2     1,950
R3     1,958-1,965

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.973

Buy
20-DMA   1934.91 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.36

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.55/oz and low of US$24.11/oz settled up by 0.497% at US$24.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.55-27.90 with stop loss above 27.90; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.20–23.95
S2     23.80
S3     23.50-23.01

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.55-25.40
R2     26.00
R3     26.50-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on made an intra‐day high of US103.01/bbl, intraday low of US$97.27/bbl and settled up by 4.70% to close at US$102.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 98.45-102.90 with stop loss at 102.90; targeting 96.60-95.10-94.00 and 92.60-91.40. Buy above 96.60-91.40 with risk daily closing below 91.40 and targeting 98.45-99.60-100.50 and 102.00-102.90-104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     96.60-95.10
S2     94.00
S3     92.60-91.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     98.45-99.60
R2     100.50
R3     102.00-102.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0873/EUR, high of US$1.0937/EUR and settled the day down by 0.136% to close at US$1.0889/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0870-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0870-1.0820
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0765-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0950
R2     1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3066/GBP, high of US$1.3107/GBP and settled the day down by 0.013% to close at US$1.3067/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2850 with target 1.3110-1.3240-1.3290 and 1.3320-1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3110-1.3400 with targets at 1.3035-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.3000
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2900-1.2820

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3110-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY123.39/USD and made an intraday high of JPY124.04/USD and settled the day up 0.665% at JPY123.77/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     123.50-123.00
S2     122.00
S3     121.00-120.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1    
R2     124.00
R3     124.90-125.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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