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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Monday, helped by continued strength of U.S. bond yields, while the euro received support from incumbent Emmanuel Macron’s lead after the first round of French presidential elections. The dollar has received the benefit from a hawkish Federal Reserve, which lifted interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting and looks set to continue hiking as the year progresses. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is on the hawkish side of the debate, stated late last week that the central bank needs to raise the federal funds rate by another 3 percentage points by year's end. However, EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0880, receiving support from the results of the first round of the French presidential election, with incumbent Emmanuel Macron polling the highest number of votes. Macron will face off against far-right challenger Marine Le Pen on April 24. Opinion polls suggest the race will be very tight, but Macron's strong start gave some confidence to markets that are wary about Le Pen's protectionism, even as she no longer backs discontinuing the euro. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and has the difficulty of balancing soaring consumer prices against pressure on growth from the war in Ukraine. The more hawkish members of the group have been pressing for the central bank to promptly rein in its accommodative policies, but while the central bank could give more details about a wind-down in asset purchases, it’s unlikely to provide any explicit hints about hikes. GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2993, falling after growth in the U.K. economy slowed more sharply than expected in February, as gross domestic product rose by 0.1%, down from 0.8% growth in January.
  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with the euro starting the week off strong as incumbent Emmanuel Macron led in the first round of voting in the French presidential election. Other moves were small as investors await central bank policy decisions in Europe, Canada, New Zealand, and South Korea. The euro briefly climbed as high as $1.0955 amid thin trading at the Asian session open. The single currency also gained against the pound and the yen. With 88% of votes counted, Macron garnered 27.41% and his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen was next with 24.9%, with the pair next contesting a runoff vote on Apr. 24. Macron's strong start gave some confidence to markets that are wary about Le Pen's protectionism, even as she no longer backs discontinuing the euro. However, gains were capped as investors await the European Central Bank (ECB)’s policy decision, due on Thursday. The dollar index topped the 100-mark for the first time in nearly two years on Friday but fell back down during the Asian session. The ECB has been in the unenviable position of balancing rising inflation against the pressure on economic growth from the war in Ukraine as it prepares to hand down its policy decision on Thursday. Although the central bank is widely expected to provide more details about a winddown in asset purchases, it may not give any further explicitly hawkish signals.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields firming as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance. However, concerns that Russia could launch fresh attacks in eastern Ukraine capped the safe-haven yellow metal's losses. However, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she is confident that the U.S. will avoid a recession even amid tighter policy, although the inflation rate will likely remain at more than 2% into 2023. In the latest move since its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia pounded targets in eastern Ukraine with missiles and artillery on Sunday. Discounts on physical gold in India widened, with scrap supplies increasing as improvement in demand remained slight. Purchases in China, a top consumer, steadied despite the country's COVID-19 lockdowns as investors sought the safe-haven asset.
  • Oil prices dropped more than $2 a barrel on Monday, following a second straight weekly decline after world consumers announced plans to release a record volume of crude and oil products from strategic stocks and as China's lockdowns continued. The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" policy for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. Anxiety about China's growth was the main reason for the fall in oil prices on the day with Shanghai's lockdown showing no signs of being lifted and Guangzhou looking to start mass virus testing, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180 million barrel release announced in March. The moves are aimed at offsetting a shortfall in Russian crude after Moscow was hit with heavy sanctions following its invasion of Ukrain However, it is unclear whether that will fully offset the shortfall in Russian oil as exports continued, with India, lured by steep discounts, increasing imports. On Monday, President Joe Biden will meet virtually with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the White House said, at a time when the United States has made it clear it does not want to see an uptick in Russian energy imports by India. In the United States, energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row as Washington seeks more production to help its allies wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,950 1,958 1,965-1,974
Silver-XAG 24.90-25.40 26.00 26.50-27.00
Crude Oil 96.60-98.45 99.60 100.50-102.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0950 1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3110 1.3240 1.3285-1.3320
USD/JPY 125.50-126.40 127.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,925-1,911 1,900 1,889-1,870
Silver-XAG 24.55–23.95 23.80 23.50-23.01
Crude Oil 95.10-94.00 92.60 91.40-90.50
EURO/USD 1.0870-1.0820 1.0805 1.0765-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2970 1.2900 1.2820-1.2750
USD/JPY 124.90-124.00 123.50 123.00-122.00

Intra-Day Strategy (11th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1948.09/oz and low of US$1927.57/oz. Gold up 0.825% at US$1947.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1925-1974 keeping stop loss closing above 1973, targeting 1911-1900-1888 and 1877-1870. Buy in between 1911-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,925-1,911
S2     1,900
S3     1,889-1,870
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,950
R2     1,958
R3     1,965-1,974

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.163

Buy
20-DMA   1934.57 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.3

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.80/oz and low of US$24.36/oz settled up by 0.760% at US$24.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.50-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.90-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55–23.95
S2     23.80
S3     23.50-23.01

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.90-25.40
R2     26.00
R3     26.50-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US98.21/bbl, intraday low of US$94.75/bbl and settled up by 0.825% to close at US$97.35/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 96.60-102.90 with stop loss at 102.90; targeting 96.60-95.10-94.00 and 92.60-91.40. Buy above 96.60-91.40 with risk daily closing below 91.40 and targeting 98.45-99.60-100.50 and 102.00-102.90-104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     95.10-94.00
S2     92.60
S3     91.40-90.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     96.60-98.45
R2     99.60
R3     100.50-102.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0835/EUR, high of US$1.0891/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0073% to close at US$1.0875/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0870-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0870-1.0820
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0765-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0950
R2     1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2981/GBP, high of US$1.3084/GBP and settled the day down by 0.317% to close at US$1.3031/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3000-1.2750 with target 1.3035-1.3110-1.3240 and 1.3290-1.3320-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2820-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3035-1.3110
R2     1.3240
R3     1.3285-1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY123.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY124.67/USD and settled the day up 0.100% at JPY124.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     124.90-124.00
S2     123.50
S3     123.00-122.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     125.50-126.40
R2     127.00
R3    

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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