AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar index held firm on Tuesday, supported by high U.S. yields ahead of inflation data that is expected to show U.S. prices gained the most in over 16 years, reinforcing expectations of aggressive Fed tightening policy. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday declined to comment on specific prices in foreign exchange markets but said that the government was closely watching the yen and that excess volatility and disorderly movements could have an adverse effect on the economy and financial stability The Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened to keep benchmark bond yields around zero. CBA analysts said they expected that very high U.S. inflation would reinforce expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Because the market had not yet fully priced in a 50-basis-point rate hike at each of the next two Fed meetings, they expected further gains for the dollar. U.S. consumer prices likely increased by the most in 16-1/2 years in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists, as the war in Ukraine boosted the cost of gasoline to record highs. Meanwhile U.S. longer-term yields inched higher, though gains were more muted than in recent days. Elsewhere, the euro was unable to hold on to gains from its minor relief rally on Monday after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting.
  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with the euro starting the week off strong as The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, climbing back above the 100 mark. The U.S. currency was supported by high yields ahead of inflation data due later in the day, which also heightened expectations of tighter monetary policy. The dollar also continued its gains against the yen and was very near the overnight intraday high of 125.77 and a June 2015 high of 125.86. Although Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday declined to comment on specific prices in foreign exchange markets, he said excess volatility and disorderly movements could have an adverse effect on the economy and financial stability. CBA also expects very high U.S. inflation will reinforce expectations of aggressive Fed tightening. As a 50-basis point rate hike was not yet fully priced in for each of the next two Fed meetings, it expects further gains for the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro gave up its gains from Monday, after incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron beat rival Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting on Apr. 10. The single currency last traded at $1.087 and was not far from its Friday close.
  • Gold prices inched higher on Tuesday as appetite for risk weakened ahead of U.S. inflation data that could support the Federal Reserve's aggressive policy stance to contain rising pricing pressures. ABC Bullion's global general manager, Nicholas Frappell, said gold was catching a bid on weaker equities and geopolitical tensions while facing headwinds from weakening crude, a firmer dollar and rising real yields. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders, while higher U.S. interest rates and yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is also used as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
  • Oil prices climbed on Tuesday on easing concerns about demand in China after Shanghai relaxed some COVID-19-related restrictions and OPEC warned it would be impossible to increase output enough to offset lost Russian supply. Shanghai said on Monday that more than 7,000 residential units had been classified as lower-risk areas after reporting no new infections for 14 days, and districts have since been announcing which compounds can be opened up. The partial easing of Shanghai lockdowns lifted some of the downward pressure stemming from concerns about Chinese oil demand, she said. The European Union is drafting proposals for an EU oil embargo on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, some foreign ministers said on Monday. However, there is currently no agreement among members on crude from Russia, which calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation". Tuesday's rise in oil markets also followed a warning from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that some 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports could be lost due to sanctions or voluntary actions, and that it would be impossible to replace those volumes. IEA member nations are planning to release some 240 million barrels over the next six months in a bid to help calm the market, of which 180 million will be released from U.S. stockpiles at a rate of 1 million bpd starting in May A preliminary Reuters poll showed {{8849|U.S. crcrude oil inventories likely rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week to April 8 after declining for three consecutive weeks. The poll was conducted ahead of a report from the American Petroleum Institute due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,958-1,965 1,974 1,980-1,994
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 26.95-27.50
Crude Oil 96.60-98.45 99.60 100.50-102.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0950 1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3110 1.3240 1.3285-1.3320
USD/JPY 125.50-126.40 127.00 127.50-128.10

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1.950-1,938 1,925-1,911 1,900-1,889
Silver-XAG 24.90-24.55 23.95 23.80-23.50
Crude Oil 95.10-94.00 92.60 91.40-90.50
EURO/USD 1.0805 1.0805 1.0765-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2970 1.2900 1.2820-1.2750
USD/JPY 124.90-124.00 123.50 123.00-122.00

Intra-Day Strategy (12th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1969.38/oz and low of US$1939.82/oz. Gold up 0.380% at US$1953.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1958-1994 keeping stop loss closing above 1994, targeting 1950-1938-1925 and 1911-1900-1888. Buy in between 1950-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.950-1,938
S2     1,925-1,911
S3     1,900-1,889
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,958-1,965
R2     1,974
R3     1,980-1,994

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.163

Buy
20-DMA   1934.57 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.3

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.36/oz and low of US$24.66/oz settled up by 1.369% at US$25.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.90-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90-24.55
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     26.95-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.506 Buy
20-DMA   24.91 Sell
50-DMA   24.20 Buy
100-DMA   23.90 Buy
200-DMA   24.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US97.89/bbl, intraday low of US$94.77/bbl and settled down by 3.18% to close at US$94.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 96.60-102.90 with stop loss at 102.90; targeting 96.60-95.10-94.00 and 92.60-91.40. Buy above 96.60-91.40 with risk daily closing below 91.40 and targeting 98.45-99.60-100.50 and 102.00-102.90-104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     95.10-94.00
S2     92.60
S3     91.40-90.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     96.60-98.45
R2     99.60
R3     100.50-102.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0872/EUR, high of US$1.0935/EUR and settled the day down by 0.328% to close at US$1.0883/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0870-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0805
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0765-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0950
R2     1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2981/GBP, high of US$1.3056/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0168% to close at US$1.3028/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3000-1.2750 with target 1.3035-1.3110-1.3240 and 1.3290-1.3320-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2820-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3035-1.3110
R2     1.3240
R3     1.3285-1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY124.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY125.76/USD and settled the day up % at JPY125.34/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     124.90-124.00
S2     123.50
S3     123.00-122.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     125.50-126.40
R2     127.00
R3     127.50-128.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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