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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday after the release of red-hot inflation data, while the euro traded near a five-week low on fears that the war in Ukraine may continue for some time to come. The release of the U.S. consumer price index lived up to expectations, as prices rose 8.5% in March compared with a year ago, the highest rate since 1981, boosted by the soaring cost of gasoline. However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, fell short of estimates, landing at 6.5%. This raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve might not need to be as aggressive in the second half of this year as some had originally expected. Elsewhere, EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.0818, just above a new five-week low following Russian President Vladimir Putin vowing to continue the invasion, stating that peace talks with Ukraine were “at a dead end”. The war in Ukraine has weighed heavily on sentiment in Europe, with the German ZEW economic research institute stating Tuesday that its economic sentiment index fell to -41.0 points from -39.3 in March. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and has the difficulty of balancing soaring consumer prices with these pressures on growth. Although little in the way of rate hikes are expected at this meeting, money markets are pricing in about 70 basis points of interest rate tightening by December. GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.2986 after data showed U.K. inflation climbing to its highest in over 30 years in March, with the annual rate of consumer inflation climbing to 7.0%, up 1.1% in month-on-month terms. The Bank of England has lifted interest rates at its last three meetings, to above the levels seen pre-pandemic, but so far this has done little to impact the growing cost-of-living crisis in the country. Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened to keep benchmark bond yields around zero, in direct contrast to most of the yields of rival countries’ debt.
  • The dollar rebounded on Tuesday after digesting slightly softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, while the euro extended losses ahead of a policy-setting meeting at the European Central Bank. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday that there were some signs of “welcome” cooling in the latest inflation readout, but emphasized that the central bank is still proceeding with a series of interest rate hikes, as well as an effort to trim its balance sheet. The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed that prices rose 8.5% in March compared with a year ago, boosted by the soaring cost of gasoline but tempered by a moderation in prices of used cars and trucks. The euro declined Tuesday as markets shifted their attention to the ECB policy meeting due later this week, with money markets pricing in about 70 basis points of interest rate tightening by December. Investors will likely look for any indication that the ECB will wind down its asset purchase program, which could tee up a rate hike in September, Rai said Still, any rebounds in the euro will likely be limited due to the Russian war against Ukraine, said Moya. In addition to pushing up gasoline prices, the war, now in its second month, has led to a global surge in food prices as Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of commodities including wheat and sunflower oil.
  • Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as concerns of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased safe-haven bids for the precious metal, although a firmer U.S. dollar capped bullion's gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin described the on-and-off peace negotiations as "a dead-end situation" on Tuesday, while U.S. President Joe Biden said for the first time that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine amounts to genocide. The dollar index firmed near May 2020 highs, making gold less attractive for overseas buyers, after reassurance from U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard that the central bank will stay the course on hiking interest rates. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, interest rate hikes would raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
  • prices edged higher on Wednesday after Moscow said that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, fuelling supply worries, while weak economic data from China and Japan kept a lid on gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday blamed Ukraine for derailing peace talks and said Moscow would not let up on what it calls a "special operation" to disarm its neighbour. Crude futures are also drawing support from Russian oil and gas condensate production falling to below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) on Monday, its lowest since July 2020. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said it expected Russian oil output losses to average 1.5 million bpd in April, with losses growing to close to 3 million bpd from May. Western sanctions against Russia and logistical constraints have hampered trade, people familiar with the data said on Tuesday. OPEC has warned that it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia and signalled that it would not pump more crude. Reports this week of partial easing of some of China's tight COVID-19 lockdown measures also underpinned oil prices. Price gains, however, were kept in check by weak data from China and Japan. China's crude oil imports slipped 14% from a year earlier, extending a two-month slide, as strict coronavirus restrictions hit demand in the world's top crude importer. Japan reported its biggest monthly fall in core machinery orders in nearly two years, dragged down by a steep drop in demand from IT and other service companies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth, citing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation as crude prices soar and the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant in China. OPEC now expects global demand to grow by 3.67 million bpd in 2022, down 480,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,974-1,980 1,994 2,008-2,014
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 26.95 27.50-28.10
Crude Oil 100.90-102.00 102.95 104.50-106.00
EURO/USD 1.0870-1.0900 1.0950-1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3110 1.3240 1.3285-1.3320
USD/JPY 126.40–127.00 127.50 128.10-129.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,965-1,958 1.950-1,938 1,925-1,911
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.55 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 99.60-98.45 96.60 95.10-94.00
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0790 1.0765 1.0720-1.0670
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2970 1.2900 1.2820-1.2750
USD/JPY 125.50-124.90 124.00-123.50 123.00-122.00

Intra-Day Strategy (13th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1978.53/oz and low of US$1949.50/oz. Gold up 0.658% at US$1966.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1974-2014 keeping stop loss closing above 2014, targeting 1965-1958-1950 and 1938-1925-1911. Buy in between 1950-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,965-1,958
S2     1.950-1,938
S3     1,925-1,911
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,974-1,980
R2     1,994
R3     2,008-2,014

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.163

Buy
20-DMA   1934.57 Buy
50-DMA  

1888.3

Buy
100-DMA   1853.64 Buy
200-DMA   1829.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   26.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.60/oz and low of US$24.86/oz settled up by 1.156% at US$25.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.90-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.55
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     26.95
R3     27.50-28.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.194 Buy
20-DMA   24.95 Sell
50-DMA   24.61 Buy
100-DMA   24.25 Buy
200-DMA   24.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.455 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US100.82/bbl, intraday low of US$94.51/bbl and settled up by 5.93% to close at US$100.51/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 100.90-106.00 with stop loss at 106.00; targeting 99.60-98.45-96.60 and 95.10-94.00-92.60. Buy above 99.60-94.00 with risk daily closing below 94.00 and targeting 100.90-102.00-102.90 and 104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     99.60-98.45
S2     96.60
S3     95.10-94.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     100.90-102.00
R2     102.95
R3     104.50-106.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0820/EUR, high of US$1.0903/EUR and settled the day up by 0.517% to close at US$1.0826/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0870-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0820-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0820-1.0790
S2     1.0765
S3     1.0720-1.0670

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0870-1.0900
R2     1.0950-1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2992/GBP, high of US$1.3053/GBP and settled the day down by 0.2678% to close at US$1.2999/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3000-1.2750 with target 1.3035-1.3110-1.3240 and 1.3290-1.3320-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2820-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3035-1.3110
R2     1.3240
R3     1.3285-1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY124.75/USD and made an intraday high of JPY125.75/USD and settled the day down 0.183% at JPY125.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     125.50-124.90
S2     124.00-123.50
S3     123.00-122.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     126.40–127.00
R2     127.50
R3     128.10-129.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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