AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar weakened in early European trade Thursday, retreating from a two-year high as the rally in U.S. bond yields paused for breath, ahead of a highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield traded at 2.684% early Thursday, retreating from Tuesday’s high of 2.836% as weaker than expected U.S. core consumer inflation reined in some expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening to combat inflation later in the year. Still, most attention Thursday will be on the European Central Bank meeting later in the day, to see whether the policymakers feel the need to combat record inflation levels even in the face of a potential war-induced recession. As it stands the ECB plans to end its emergency bond buying at some point in the third quarter, with interest rates going up "some time" after that. This would be the fourth meeting in a row that the central bank has decided against raising interest rates after, under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it halted a series of rate cuts at the end of last year.
  • The dollar lost ground against most major peers on Thursday, falling from two year peak hit overnight, as U.S. yields paused their march higher after U.S data released earlier in the week showed inflation lower than some analysts had feared. Even the battered yen had some respite, making a small recovery from a 20-year low hit overnight, though analysts reckoned the yen's tone remained weak. Otherwise, investors were awaiting a European Central Bank meeting later in the day, to see whether it was as hawkish as some of its global peers, after a spate of rate increases in recent days. However, while high, these were not quite as bad as some had feared, which observers said caused yields to pause. Other central banks reinforced the hawkish global mood ahead of the ECB meeting. Earlier in the day, the Bank of Korea, surprised markets with a rate hike, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore also tightened policy. The pause in yields meant the Japanese yen managed a small recovery in U.S. trade which continued into early Asia. It was last at 125.37 per dollar, having fallen to a 20 year low of 126.31 on Wednesday. More than three-quarters of Japanese firms say the yen has declined to point of being detrimental to their business, a Reuters poll found, with almost half of companies expecting a hit to earnings.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia. However, the yellow metal was set for a second consecutive weekly gain as the war in Ukraine and broadening inflationary pressures give the safe-haven metal a boost. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell on Wednesday, following steady gains earlier in the month as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve would aggressively tighten monetary policy to curb high inflation. In Asia Pacific, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to cut the one-year policy loans interest rate on Friday, its second time doing so in 2022 to date. PBOC is also expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio soon The Bank of Korea hiked its interest rate to 1.5% as it handed down its latest policy decision. Investors now await the European Central Bank’s policy decision, due later in the day. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, ongoing since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, continues. The U.S. on Wednesday said that it would send an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, ahead of the widely expected Russian attack on the eastern part of the country.
  • Oil prices slipped on Thursday amid thin trading volumes ahead of a public holiday, as traders weighed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil stocks against tightening global supply. Both contracts on Wednesday had shrugged off a large build in U.S. crude inventories to end the trading session roughly 4% higher The International Energy Agency on Wednesday warned that from May onwards roughly 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil could be shut-in due to sanctions or voluntary embargoes At the same time, major global trading houses are also planning to curtail crude and fuel purchases from Russia's state-controlled oil companies in May, Reuters reported on Wednesday. The probability of a EU ban on Russian oil being agreed may be almost zero, but no one will be able or wanting to say that clearly, Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights said. Despite signals that global supply disruption will persist, oil stocks in the U.S. rose by more than 9 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, driven in part by releases from the nation's strategic reserves. Analysts in a Reuters poll had anticipated just an 863,000-barrel build. U.S. gasoline stocks fell 3.6 million barrels last week, far above anticipated levels, and distillate inventories also declined.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,974-1,980 1,994 2,008-2,014
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 26.95 27.50-28.10
Crude Oil 102.50-102.95 104.50 106.00-106.90
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0950 1.1025 1.1105-1.1145
GBP/USD 1.3160-1.3240 1.3285 1.3320-1.3390
USD/JPY 126.40–127.00 127.50 128.10-129.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,965-1,958 1.950-1,938 1,925-1,911
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.55 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 100.90-99.60 98.45 96.60-95.10
EURO/USD 1.0870-1.0820 1.0790 1.0765-1.0720
GBP/USD 1.3110-1.3035 1.3000 1.2970-1.2900
USD/JPY 124.90-124.00 123.50 123.00-122.00

Intra-Day Strategy (14th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1981.44/oz and low of US$1962.65/oz. Gold up 0.611% at US$1978.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1974-2014 keeping stop loss closing above 2014, targeting 1965-1958-1950 and 1938-1925-1911. Buy in between 1950-1877 with risk below 1877, targeting 1925-1941-1950 and 1958-1965-1973.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,965-1,958
S2     1.950-1,938
S3     1,925-1,911
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,974-1,980
R2     1,994
R3     2,008-2,014

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.515

Buy
20-DMA   1945.39 Buy
50-DMA  

1919.39

Buy
100-DMA   1883.89 Buy
200-DMA   1850.67 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.445 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   10.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wedensday made its intraday high of US$25.82/oz and low of US$25.34/oz settled up by 1.395% at US$25.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.55
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     26.95
R3     27.50-28.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.326 Buy
20-DMA   25.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.66 Buy
100-DMA   24.28 Buy
200-DMA   24.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.155 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US100.82/bbl, intraday low of US$94.51/bbl and settled up by 5.93% to close at US$100.51/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 100.90-106.00 with stop loss at 106.00; targeting 99.60-98.45-96.60 and 95.10-94.00-92.60. Buy above 99.60-94.00 with risk daily closing below 94.00 and targeting 100.90-102.00-102.90 and 104.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     100.90-99.60
S2     98.45
S3     96.60-95.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     102.50-102.95
R2     104.50
R3     106.00-106.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.926 Sell
20-DMA   103.74 Sell
50-DMA   98.07 Buy
100-DMA   90.75 Buy
200-DMA   82.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0808/EUR, high of US$1.0893/EUR and settled the day up by 0.400% to close at US$1.0870/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0870-1.1145, targeting 1.0870-1.08520 and 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0820-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0900-1.0950-1.1105 and 1.1145-1.1190-1.1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0870-1.0820
S2     1.0790
S3     1.0765-1.0720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0950
R2     1.1025
R3     1.1105-1.1145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1411.14166 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2971/GBP, high of US$1.3116/GBP and settled the day up by 0.928% to close at US$1.3115/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3110-1.2750 with target 1.3160-1.3240 and 1.3290-1.3320-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2820. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2850 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3110-1.3035
S2     1.3000
S3     1.2970-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3160-1.3240
R2     1.3285
R3     1.3320-1.3390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY125.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY126.30/USD and settled the day up 0.0231% at JPY125.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     124.90-124.00
S2     123.50
S3     123.00-122.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     126.40–127.00
R2     127.50
R3     128.10-129.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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