AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose to a two-decade peak against the yen and kept close to a two-year high to the euro on Friday, as more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations for faster U.S. policy tightening. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that a half-point rate rise next month was "a very reasonable option," in a further sign that even more cautious policymakers are on board with faster monetary tightening. By contrast, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said around the same time that there was no clear timeframe for when ECB rates would start to rise, adding that it could be weeks or even several months after the central bank winds down its stimulus scheme in the third quarter. By contrast, the ECB "revealed a more dovish reaction function to the inflation news than the market had discounted," he said. Treasuries did not trade in Tokyo on Friday because of the Good Friday market holiday in the United States, as well as other regions including Australia, Hong Hong and the U.K. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Tuesday that the government is watching yen moves and their impact on the economy "with a sense of urgency". The dollar stayed close to a two-year high versus the euro, supported by the unremitting hawkish comments from Fed officials. The Fed last month delivered the first in what is expected to be a series of interest rate increases this year and into next to bring down 40-year high inflation. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that a half-point rate rise next month was "a very reasonable option", while Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester signalled rates should rise quickly. Last week, the European Central Bank confirmed plans to end its hallmark stimulus scheme in the third quarter, but stressed there was no clear timeframe for when ECB rates would start to rise, and that policy is flexible and can quickly change.
  • The yen won a brief reprieve after hitting fresh two-decade lows from Japanese policymaker comments on Monday, even as holidays confined the U.S. dollar to narrow ranges against most other currencies. The yen fell to a two-decade low of 126.795 in early Asian trading, before both Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki voiced concerns and caused it to bounce as far as 126.25. But the rally proved short-lived and it was soon back around 126.57. With the Easter holiday in Australia, Hong Kong and other parts of Asia dulling trade in other currencies, the dollar remained strong and supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve while the euro was hamstrung by a lack of clarity on when rates in the euro zone would rise. Japanese policymakers have been vocal about their concerns around the falling yen, particularly after it slipped to the weaker side of 125 per dollar on April 11. While expectations are for the Bank of Japan to acknowledge rising inflationary pressures at the upcoming April 27-28 monetary policy review and not do more, analysts say the weak yen piles pressure on Kuroda to tweak its zero-rates, yield curve control policy soon. Kuroda made clear on Monday that while a weak yen could impact corporate profits, it was premature to debate any exit from that easy policy. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Friday the central bank's monetary policy is aimed at achieving its 2% inflation target, not at manipulating currency rates.
  • Gold prices rose on Monday to their highest since mid-March, as the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict dampened risk sentiment and drove investors towards the safety of bullion. Seems like there is a bit of risk aversion in the market, with some overhang from the Russia-Ukraine situation. While cautioning thin liquidity could possibly exaggerate price action. Ukrainian authorities said missiles struck Lviv early on Monday and explosions rocked other cities as Russian forces kept up their bombardments after claiming near full control of the strategic southern port of Mariupol. Bullion is considered a safe store of value during times of political and economic crisis. While another test of $2,000 is likely the path of least resistance for gold, $2,100 is the bigger, more potent figure to keep an eye on, as there are some meaningful peaks there that would need to be overcome to make the case for lasting gains, Spivak said. China's economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, taking the shine off faster-than-expected first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war.
  • Oil prices steadied on Monday as worries over slowing demand in China prompted investors to take profits on gains made earlier in the day on concerns over tight supply and the deepening Ukraine crisis. China's economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, taking the shine off faster-than-expected first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war. The country refined 2% less oil in March than a year earlier, with throughput falling to its lowest level since October as a surge in crude prices squeezed margins and tight lockdowns hurt fuel consumption. EU governments said last week the bloc's executive was drafting proposals to ban Russian crude, but diplomats said Germany was not actively supporting an immediate embargo. Those comments came before tensions grew in the Ukraine crisis, with authorities reporting multiple explosions in western and southern Ukraine on Monday as Russian forces claimed near full control of the strategic southern port city of Mariupol following almost two months of bloody fighting. The International Energy Agency had warned that roughly 3 million bpd of Russian oil could be shut in from May onwards due to sanctions, or buyers voluntarily shunning Russian cargoes. Russian oil production has continued to slide in April, declining by 7.5% in the first half of the month from March, the Interfax news agency reported on Friday. Adding to pressure, Libya halted oil production from its El Feel oilfield on Sunday and two sources at Zueitina oil port said exports there had been suspended after protesters calling for Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah to resign took over the sites. U.S. oil production forecasts, however, are being revised upwards despite labour and supply chain constraints, as higher prices spur more drilling and well completion activity, according to industry experts.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,996-2,008 2,014 2,032-2,040
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 26.95 27.50-28.10
Crude Oil 106.00-106.90 107.70 1.0950-1.1025
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0870 1.0900 1.0950-1.1025
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3110 1.3160 1.3240-1.3285
USD/JPY 127.00–127.50 128.10 129.00-129.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,980-1,974 1,965-1,958 1.950-1,938
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.55 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 105.50-104.50 102.95-102.50 100.90-99.60
EURO/USD 1.0765-1.0720 1.0680 1.0610-1.0550
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2970 1.2900 1.2840
USD/JPY 126.40–124.90 124.00 123.50-123.00

Intra-Day Strategy (18th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1980.20/oz and low of US$1960.41/oz. Gold down 0.232% at US$1973.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1994-2040 keeping stop loss closing above 2040, targeting 1980-1974-1965 and 1958-1950 -1938. Buy in between 1980-1938 with risk below 1838, targeting 1996-2008-2014 and 2032-240.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,980-1,974
S2     1,965-1,958
S3     1.950-1,938
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,996-2,008
R2     2,014
R3     2,032-2,040

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.781

Buy
20-DMA   1949.51 Buy
50-DMA  

1922.10

Buy
100-DMA   1885.96 Buy
200-DMA   1852.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.810 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.86/oz and low of US$25.28/oz settled down by 0.322% at US$25.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.55
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     26.95
R3     27.50-28.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.326 Buy
20-DMA   25.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.66 Buy
100-DMA   24.28 Buy
200-DMA   24.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.155 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US106.96/bbl, intraday low of US$101.68/bbl and settled up by 2.15% to close at US$105.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 106.00-110.40 with stop loss at 110.0; targeting 105.50-104.00-102.95 and 102.50-100.90-99.60. Buy above 105.50-99.60 with risk daily closing below 99.60 and targeting 106.00-106.90-107.70 and 109.00-110.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50-104.50
S2     102.95-102.50
S3     100.90-99.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     106.00-106.90
R2     107.70
R3     1.0950-1.1025

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0795/EUR, high of US$1.0829/EUR and settled the day up by 0.188% to close at US$1.0806/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0820-1.1145, targeting 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 and 1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0765-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0820-1.0870-1.0900 and 1.0950-1.1105-1.1145.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0765-1.0720
S2     1.0680
S3     1.0610-1.0550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0820-1.0870
R2     1.0900
R3     1.0950-1.1025

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1040 Sell
50-DMA   1.1127 Sell
100-DMA   1.1246 Sell
200-DMA   1.1416 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3037/GBP, high of US$1.3075/GBP and settled the day up by 0.055% to close at US$1.3057/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3010-1.2750 with target 1.0305-1.3110-1.3160-1.3240 and 1.3290-1.3320-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2750. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2840 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3035-1.3110
R2     1.3160
R3     1.3240-1.3285

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.813

Buy
20-DMA   1.3227 Buy
50-DMA   1.3340 Buy
100-DMA   1.3509 Buy
200-DMA   1.3509 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY125.85/USD and made an intraday high of JPY126.66/USD and settled the day up 0.464% at JPY126.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     126.40–124.90
S2     124.00
S3     123.50-123.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     127.00–127.50
R2     128.10
R3     129.00-129.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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