AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar index rose past 101 for the first time since March 2020 on Tuesday, as the greenback set its latest 20-year high on the yen and tested a two-year peak on the euro, supported by high U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of good economic data. She added that she was watching purchasing manager index data due in several markets on Friday. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield on Tuesday was at 2.8376 hovering just off its three-year high of 2.884% hit Monday, while the Bank of Japan has been intervening to keep the yield on Japanese 10 year government bonds around 0% and no higher than 0.25%. Many investors are betting the yen has further to fall. The latest CFTC data for the week ending April 12 shows net short yen positions are the largest in three and a half years. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday the damage to the economy from a weakening yen at present is greater than the benefits from it, the most explicit warning against the currency's recent slump. European currencies weren't helped by the latest fighting in Ukraine, which said Russia had started an anticipated new offensive in the east of the country.
  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, while the Japanese yen hit a 20-year low against the U.S. currency as Treasury yields remain high. The dollar rose 0.37% on the yen to 127.44 yen in early Asian trading, the highest level since May 2002. It has risen 4.5% on the Japanese currency in April 2022 to date, the second-biggest monthly percentage gain since 2016 behind the previous month’s 5.8%. The greenback was also firm against most other currencies and the dollar index was just off Monday's two-year high of 100.86 Kong added that she was watching European purchasing manager index (PMI) data due in several markets on Friday. The U.K. and U.S. will also release their PMIs within the week. Japan is monitoring how the weakening yen could impact the economy, as stability in the currency market was important, the country’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday. Across the Atlantic, the euro was at $1.0776, testing the two-year low of $1.0756 hit during the previous week. The pound was also impacted by the war in Ukraine, precipitated by the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. Russia has launched a fresh offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, according to Ukraine. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged up from Monday's one-month low as the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its latest meeting.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, after hitting the $2,000 mark during the previous session. The dollar was near a two-year high and dented the safe-haven yellow metal’s appeal. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, edged up on Tuesday, its highest level since April 2020. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also likely to hike its interest rate at its next couple of meetings, while yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note eased off recent highs. In Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its latest meeting earlier in the day.
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors fretted over tight global supply after Libya was forced to halt some exports and as factories in Shanghai prepared to reopen post a COVID-19 shutdown, easing some demand worries. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.5%, to $113.77 a barrel at 0349 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 33 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.54 a barrel. Gains were limited with the dollar trading at a fresh two-year high. A stronger dollar hurts oil buyers holding other currencies. Both benchmark contracts gained more than 1% in the previous session after hitting their highest since March 28 on political crisis in Libya. The country said it could not deliver oil from its biggest oil field and shut another field due to political protests. The latest supply hit came just as fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, was expected to pick up as manufacturing plants prepared to reopen in Shanghai. Although oil prices are still vulnerable to demand shocks as China continues to impose tough curbs to contain COVID outbreaks. The Libya outage highlights just how bullishly reactive oil markets have become to supply shocks, Innes added. Meanwhile the possibility of a European Union ban on Russian oil for its invasion of Ukraine continues to keep the market on edge. On Tuesday Ukraine said Russia, which calls its actions a "special operation", had started an anticipated new offensive in the east of the country. "Market sentiment was supported by the Russian minister saying more countries banning Russian oil imports would mean oil prices exceeding historic highs," ANZ Research analysts said in a note.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,980-1,996 2,008 2,014-2,032
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 26.95 27.50-28.10
Crude Oil 107.70-109.00 110.40 112.00-113.40
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0870 1.0900 1.0950-1.1025
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.3110 1.3160 1.3240-1.3285
USD/JPY 127.00–127.50 128.10 129.00-129.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,970-1,958 1.950 1,938-1,923
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.55 23.95-23.80
Crude Oil 106.90-106.00 105.50-104.50 102.95-102.50
EURO/USD 1.0765-1.0720 1.0680 1.0610-1.0550
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2970 1.2900 1.2840-1.2790
USD/JPY 126.40–124.90 124.00 123.50-123.00

Intra-Day Strategy (19th April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1998.29/oz and low of US$1970.62/oz. Gold down 0.308% at US$1978.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1980-2032 keeping stop loss closing above 2040, targeting 1970-1965 and 1958-1950 -1938. Buy in between 1965-1923 with risk below 1923, targeting 1980-1996-2008 and 2014-2032-240.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,970-1,958
S2     1.950
S3     1,938-1,923
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,980-1,996
R2     2,008
R3     2,014-2,032

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.781

Buy
20-DMA   1949.51 Buy
50-DMA  

1922.10

Buy
100-DMA   1885.96 Buy
200-DMA   1852.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.810 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.21/oz and low of US$25.59/oz settled up by 0.952% at US$25.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 26.00-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.55
S3     23.95-23.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     26.95
R3     27.50-28.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.326 Buy
20-DMA   25.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.66 Buy
100-DMA   24.28 Buy
200-DMA   24.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.155 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US109.09/bbl, intraday low of US$105.34/bbl and settled up by 0.129% to close at US$106.85/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 106.00-110.40 with stop loss at 110.0; targeting 105.50-104.00-102.95 and 102.50-100.90-99.60. Buy above 105.50-99.60 with risk daily closing below 99.60 and targeting 106.00-106.90-107.70 and 109.00-110.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90-106.00
S2     105.50-104.50
S3     102.95-102.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     107.70-109.00
R2     110.40
R3     112.00-113.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.883 Sell
20-DMA   102.02 Sell
50-DMA   98.91 Buy
100-DMA   92.52 Buy
200-DMA   83.78 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.410 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0769/EUR, high of US$1.0769/EUR and settled the day down by 0.200% to close at US$1.0781/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0820-1.1145, targeting 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 and 1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0765-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0820-1.0870-1.0900 and 1.0950-1.1105-1.1145.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0765-1.0720
S2     1.0680
S3     1.0610-1.0550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0820-1.0870
R2     1.0900
R3     1.0950-1.1025

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.898 Buy
20-DMA   1.0904 Sell
50-DMA   1.1029 Sell
100-DMA   1.1171 Sell
200-DMA   1.1360 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3003/GBP, high of US$1.3062/GBP and settled the day down by 0.294% to close at US$1.3005/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3010-1.2750 with target 1.3035-1.3110-1.3160 and 1.3240-1.3290-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750. Sell in between 1.3035-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2840 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2840-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3035-1.3110
R2     1.3160
R3     1.3240-1.3285

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.488

Buy
20-DMA   1.3084 Sell
50-DMA   1.3197 Sell
100-DMA   1.3316 Sell
200-DMA   1.3435 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY126.99/USD and made an intraday high of JPY126.99/USD and settled the day up 0.464% at JPY126.98/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 123.00-126.90 with risk above 126.90 targeting 122.00-121.00-120.10 and 119.60-119.00. Long positions above 122.00-118.10 with targets of 123.00-124.00 and 124.90-125.50-126.00 with stop below 115.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     126.40–124.90
S2     124.00
S3     123.50-123.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     127.00–127.50
R2     128.10
R3     129.00-129.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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