AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged up on Thursday, supported by expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening, but it was well off the previous day's peaks amid nervousness about what G7 might say about its rapid appreciation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stepped in to the bond market for the third time in three months to defend its zero-percent yield target, drawing a stark contrast with the Fed's increasingly hawkish posture. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday in Washington D.C. that he had explained the yen's "somewhat rapid" declines to his Group of Seven counterparts, but did not comment on how they reacted. He has warned in recent days about the potential damage to the Japanese economy from a weakening currency. Suzuki is due to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week, prompting traders to pare back bearish yen bets on the potential for a step-up in rhetoric. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday she believed the case for a half-percentage-point rate hike next month is "complete" and "solid", adding to recent comments from other Fed officials backing bigger rate increases. Markets are currently priced for half-point increases in both May and June. By contrast, the BOJ on Wednesday offered to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year Japanese government bonds for four consecutive sessions as yields bumped against the 0.25% maximum leeway around its zero-percent target, showing its commitment to ultra-easing stimulus settings ahead of its policy meeting next week. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has stuck to the view that a weak yen is overall good for the economy, but reiterated on Thursday that currency volatility could hurt business activity. Japanese policymakers "have not fully utilised their verbal intervention toolkits yet - the next phase would typically involve describing moves as 'speculative' and threatening to 'take decisive action,'" Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. But on whether intervention would work, he said it "could restore some short-term balance to markets and manage the pace of JPY depreciation (but) longer-term, there is no prospect of the BOJ mopping up all of the JPY selling we anticipate from within Japan as the Fed hiking cycle gets properly underway." A growing number of analysts are cutting Chinese growth forecasts. Shanghai authorities said on Thursday the number of COVID-19 cases outside quarantined areas in the city rose again, warning tough lockdown restrictions would remain in place for now even in districts which managed to cut transmissions to zero.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with rebounding U.S. Treasury yields countering safe-haven demand from the ongoing war in Ukraine and its potential impact on the global economy. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were back on an upward trend after falling from three-year highs on Wednesday. U.S. bond yields have been climbing over expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates. Investors now await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who will speak at an International Monetary Fund event later in the day. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak a day later. The yellow metal came close to the $2,000 mark earlier in the week, with concerns around the war in Ukraine precipitated by the Russian invasion of Feb. 24 and rising inflationary pressures giving the safe-haven asset a boost.
  • Oil prices firmed in choppy trade on Thursday as concerns about supply due to a potential European Union (EU) ban on Russian oil came to the fore, days after diminished supplies from Libya rocked the market. Analysts said market volatility is likely to pick up again soon, with the EU still weighing a ban on Russian oil for its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation". Libya, a member of OPEC, on Wednesday said the country was losing more than 550,000 barrels per day of oil output due to blockades at major fields and export terminals. The demand outlook in China continues to weigh on the market, as the world's biggest oil importer slowly eases strict COVID-19 curbs that have hit manufacturing activity and global supply chains. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal could return to full capacity this week, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said on Wednesday. The International Monetary Fund highlighted risks in China when it cut its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point on Tuesday. However the oil market remains tight with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, struggling to meet their production targets and with U.S. crude stockpiles down sharply in the week ended April 15.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st April 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1.950-1,958 1,970 1,980-1,996
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.00 26.50 26.95-27.50
Crude Oil 104.50-105.50 106.00 107.70-109.00
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0870 1.0900 1.0950-1.1025
GBP/USD 1.3110 1.3160 1.3240-1.3285
USD/JPY 129.00-129.60 130.00 130.60-131.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st April 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,938-1,923 1,907 1,900-1,889
Silver-XAG 24.90-24.55 23.95 23.80-23.20
Crude Oil 102.95-102.50 101.00 100.60-99.25
EURO/USD 1.0765-1.0720 1.0680 1.0610-1.0550
GBP/USD 1.3035-1.2970 1.2900 1.2840-1.2790
USD/JPY 128.10-127.00 126.40 124.90-124.00

Intra-Day Strategy (21st April 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on wedensday made its intraday high of US$1958.25/oz and low of US$1939.20/oz. Gold up 0.379% at US$1957.33/oz

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1950-1996 keeping stop loss closing above 1996, targeting 1938-1,923-1,907 and 1,900-1,889. Buy in between 1938-1889 with risk below 1899, targeting 1950-1958-1970 and 1980-1996-2008.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,938-1,923
S2     1,907
S3     1,900-1,889
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.950-1,958
R2     1,970
R3     1,980-1,996

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.781

Buy
20-DMA   1949.51 Buy
50-DMA  

1922.10

Buy
100-DMA   1885.96 Buy
200-DMA   1852.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.810 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.28/oz and low of US$24.88/oz settled up by 0.0715% at US$25.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.70-22.90, targeting 25.10-25.70-26.50 and 26.75-27.50-27.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 25.40-27.90 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.40-23.90-23.40 and 23.50-23.01.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90-24.55
S2     23.95
S3     23.80-23.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.00
R2     26.50
R3     26.95-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.326 Buy
20-DMA   25.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.66 Buy
100-DMA   24.28 Buy
200-DMA   24.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.836 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.155 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US103.81/bbl, intraday low of US$99.76/bbl and settled down by 0.017% to close at US$102.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 104.00-110.00 with stop loss at 110.0; targeting 102.95-102.50-100.90-99.60. Buy above 102.95-99.60 with risk daily closing below 99.60 and targeting 104.50-105.50-106.00 and 106.90-107.70-109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     102.95-102.50
S2     101.00
S3     100.60-99.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     104.50-105.50
R2     106.00
R3     107.70-109.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.883 Sell
20-DMA   102.23 Sell
50-DMA   99.24 Buy
100-DMA   92.93 Buy
200-DMA   84.16 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.384 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0783/EUR, high of US$1.0866/EUR and settled the day up by 0.551% to close at US$1.0845/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1191), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0820-1.1145, targeting 1.0765-1.0720-1.0640 and 1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200. Buy above 1.0765-1.0640 with risk below 1.0640, targeting 1.0820-1.0870-1.0900 and 1.0950-1.1105-1.1145.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0765-1.0720
S2     1.0680
S3     1.0610-1.0550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0820-1.0870
R2     1.0900
R3     1.0950-1.1025

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.898 Buy
20-DMA   1.0904 Sell
50-DMA   1.1029 Sell
100-DMA   1.1171 Sell
200-DMA   1.1360 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2989/GBP, high of US$1.3070/GBP and settled the day up by 0.554% to close at US$1.3066/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3035-1.2750 with target 1.3110-1.3160 and 1.3240-1.3290-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750. Sell in between 1.3110-1.3400 with targets at 1.3000-1.2970 and 1.2925-1.2840 with stop loss should be 1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3035-1.2970
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2840-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3110
R2     1.3160
R3     1.3240-1.3285

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.488

Buy
20-DMA   1.3084 Sell
50-DMA   1.3197 Sell
100-DMA   1.3316 Sell
200-DMA   1.3435 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY127.45/USD and made an intraday high of JPY129.39/USD and settled the day down 1.072% at JPY127.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 129.00-131.20 with risk above 131.20 targeting 128.10-127.00-126.40 and 124.90-124.00. Long positions above 128.10-124.00 with targets of 129.00-129.60-130.00 and 130.60-131.20 with stop below 124.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     128.10-127.00
S2     126.40
S3     124.90-124.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     129.00-129.60
R2     130.00
R3     130.60-131.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.266 Buy
20-DMA   115.18 Sell
50-DMA   114.81 Buy
100-DMA   113.1 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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