AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Thursday, ceding ground gained in recent sessions as firmer risk sentiment prompted investors to reach for higher-yielding currencies. Stock markets around the world rose on Thursday after recent weakness, as bets Saudi Arabia may boost crude production cooled oil prices, helping balance concerns over surging inflation and monetary policy tightening. News that Saudi Arabia may pump more oil and reports that China will ease some COVID restrictions are helping bolster risk sentiment, to the safe-haven dollar's disadvantage, Doyle said. Oil prices were little changed, erasing losses made early on Thursday after OPEC+ agreed to boost crude output to compensate for a drop in Russian production. Shanghai sprung back to life on Wednesday after two months of bitter isolation under a strict COVID-19 lockdown, with shops reopening and people going back to offices, parks and markets. The dollar found little support from data showing U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high. The Swiss franc was 0.5% higher against the dollar after Swiss prices increased by the most in 14 years during May, with Switzerland becoming the latest country to be hit by more expensive fuel and food costs plaguing economies around the world.
  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, hitting a three-week high against the yen in early Asian trading. The U.S. currency held firm and was supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which hit two-week peaks overnight. The U.S. benchmark 10-year yield hit a two-week high of 2.951% on Wednesday, with data showing U.S. manufacturing activity picked up in May 2022 as demand for goods remained strong. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) at 57 and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 56.1. U.S. job openings also remained at high levels, with the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment index at 49.6 and the JOLTs jobs opening index at 11.4 million. Yields have been on an upward trend as the U.S. Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates quickly in an attempt to curb inflation and avoid an economic recession. The 10-year yield was a touch softer in early Asia at 2.9145%. Investors are also awaiting Friday's U.S. jobs report, including non-farm payrolls. The European Central Bank will have its policy meeting in the following week, where it is expected to give more details about its plans for interest rate hikes.
  • Oll on Thursday as investors cashed in on a recent rally ahead of a key producers meeting later -Oil prices edged higher on Friday as markets shrugged off the decision of OPEC+ to increase production and questioned whether the incremental output would make up for lost Russian supply and meet China's growing demand amid easing COVID restrictions A decision on Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, to boost output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, instead of by 432,000 bpd as previously agreed, was seen as hardly enough for a tight market The increases were divided proportionally across the member countries, but with Russia included in the pact and members such as Angola and Nigeria already failing to meet their targets, analysts said the supply increase was likely to be less than the announced volume. Russian output has already dropped by 1 million bpd since its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation", and is likely to fall even further as the European Union's ban on Russian oil kicks in, ANZ analysts said. With daily COVID-19 cases falling, China's financial hub Shanghai and capital, Beijing, have relaxed COVID-19 restrictions this week. The central Chinese government vowed broad support to stimulate the country's economy, which is expected to target high fuel intensity sectors such as infrastructure and property construction. Analysts warned, though, of downside risks to oil demand and prices, as Beijing has not changed its stance on COVID-19 rules. Although Brent was on track to fall for the week, WTI was on course for its sixth weekly gain as U.S. supply is seen as very tight, prompting talk of fuel export curbs or a windfall profits tax on oil and gas producers. Government data on Thursday showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell much more than expected in the week to May 27 and gasoline inventories fell, defying expectations for an increase.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,870-1,879 1,890 1,900-1,908
Silver-XAG 22.50-22.90 23.20 23.75-24.25
Crude Oil 115.80-117.10 118.20 119.00-120.10
EURO/USD 1.0755-1.0795 1.0920 1.0970-1.1005
GBP/USD 1.2575-1.2630 1.2690-1.2745 1.2800-1.2975
USD/JPY 130.60-131.20 132.00 132.90-133.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,859-1,851 1,840-1,831 1,820-1,808
Silver-XAG 22.05-21.50 20.90 20.60-20.00
Crude Oil 114.50-113.25 111.60 112.50-109.90
EURO/USD 1.0690-1.0630 1.0550 1.0490-1.0450
GBP/USD 1.2490-1.2420 1.2310 1.2200-1.2150
USD/JPY 129.60-128.90 127.50-126.90 125.70-125.00

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1870.45/oz and low of US$1843.95/oz. Gold up 1.20% at US$1868.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1870-1907 keeping stop loss closing above 1907, targeting 1859-1842-1827 and 1820-1801-1789. Buy in between 1859-1808 with risk below 1808, targeting 1870-1879-1890 and 1900-1907.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,859-1,851
S2     1,840-1,831
S3     1,820-1,808
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,870-1,879
R2     1,890
R3     1,900-1,908

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$22.32/oz and low of US$21.75/oz settled up by 1.341% at US$22.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.60-19.60, targeting 22.05-22.50 and 23.05--23.95-24.55-25.10 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.10-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.50-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.05-21.50
S2     20.90
S3     20.60-20.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.50-22.90
R2     23.20
R3     23.75-24.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US116.25/bbl, intraday low of US$109.90/bbl and settled up by 2.20% to close at US$116.02/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 115.80-120.10 with stop loss at 120.10; targeting 114.50-113.25-111.60 and 110.10-107.60-105.90. Buy above 114.50-109.90 with risk daily closing below 109.00 and targeting 105.80-117.10-118.20 and 119.00-120.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.50-113.25
S2     111.60
S3     112.50-109.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     115.80-117.10
R2     118.20
R3     119.00-120.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.122 Sell
20-DMA   110.83 Buy
50-DMA   106.36 Buy
100-DMA   100.19 Buy
200-DMA   90.659 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.915 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.807 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0640/EUR, high of US$1.0749/EUR and settled the day up by 0.949% to close at US$1.0744/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0750-1.0970, targeting 1.0690-1.0630-1.0550 and 1.0490-1.0450-1.0390 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0690-1.0210 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0741-1.0795 and 1.0920-1.0970-1.1005.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0690-1.0630
S2     1.0550
S3     1.0490-1.0450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0755-1.0795
R2     1.0920
R3     1.0970-1.1005

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.943 Buy
20-DMA   1.0647 Buy
50-DMA   1.0736 Buy
100-DMA   1.0916 Sell
200-DMA   1.1165 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2468/GBP, high of US$1.2586/GBP and settled the day up by 0.753% to close at US$1.2575/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2490-1.2010 with target 1.2575-1.2650-1.2745 and 1.2800-1.2975 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2575-1.2975 with targets at 1.2490-1.2420 and 1.2310-1.2200-1.2150 with stop loss should be 1.2975.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2490-1.2420
S2     1.2310
S3     1.2200-1.2150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2575-1.2630
R2     1.2690-1.2745
R3     1.2800-1.2975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.981

Buy
20-DMA   1.2523 Sell
50-DMA   1.2722 Sell
100-DMA   1.2967 Sell
200-DMA   1.3208 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.970 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   80.970 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY129.50/USD and made an intraday high of JPY130.22/USD and settled the day down 0.238% at JPY129.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 130.60-133.50 with risk above 133.50 targeting 129.60-128.90-127.50 and 126.90-126.10-125.00. Long positions above 129.60-124.30 with targets of 130.60-131.20-132.00 and 132.90-133.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     129.60-128.90
S2     127.50-126.90
S3     125.70-125.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     130.60-131.20
R2     132.00
R3     132.90-133.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.567 Buy
20-DMA   128.49 Buy
50-DMA   126.58 Buy
100-DMA   122.76 Buy
200-DMA   119.00 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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