AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, maintaining a positive tone as traders digested the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points Wednesday, its biggest interest rate hike since 1994, and pointed to further steady rises this year to combat historically high levels of inflation. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in the associated press conference that “today’s 75 basis-point increase is an unusually large one and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.” “Powell stated that the Russia/Ukraine war and China's coronavirus lockdowns continued exacerbating supply chains hence inflationary pressures,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “By hinting at external factors, he threaded the needle well for risk assets here, giving investors a nugget of hope that we should not expect surprise moves of this size to be commonplace Attention now turns to the latest economic releases for guidance, with data on housing starts and unemployment trends scheduled for later Thursday. EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.0411, with the announcement by the European Central Bank of a new purchase scheme aimed at stopping a widening gap between the yields paid by Germany and those of lower-rated countries such as Italy failing to offer much support for the single currency. USD/JPY rose 0.5% to 134.49, with the yen under severe pressure ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday, with the central bank so far maintaining a super-easy monetary policy as the Fed aggressively hikes. GBP/USD fell 0.5% to 1.2113, with the Bank of England expected to deliver its fifth straight 25 basis point hike later Thursday, which would be something of an anticlimax after the Fed’s fireworks. The BOE started tightening monetary policy earlier than its peers, potentially giving it room to move cautiously, but inflation hit 9% in April and is forecast to hit double digits later this year, well in excess of its 2% target. The Fed also said it will shrink its balance sheet by $47.5 billion a month, which will start from June 1 and step up to $95 billion in September. Investors now await policy decisions from the Bank of England (BOE), which are due later in the day. On the data front, U.S. housing starts, and initial jobless claims are due later in the day.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia as investors digested the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a supersized interest rate hike. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points Wednesday to tame inflation after the U.S. consumer price index rose 8.6% year on year in May, the largest since 1994.The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will deliver another big hike in July, but “today’s 75 basis-point increase is an unusually large one and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.” The Fed’s decision drove longer-dated U.S. government bond yields lower and nudged the dollar off two-decade highs, which took gold as much as 1.9% higher in the previous session. Inflationary hedge buying, potential safe-haven demand versus pressure from a higher interest rate regime are keeping gold prices balanced, Tiger Brokers' Michael McCarthy told Reuters.
  • -Oil prices recovered on Thursday from a steep drop in the previous session, supported by tight oil supply and peak summer consumption, after a hefty U.S. rate hike sparked fears of slower economic growth and less fuel demand. Prices slipped more than 2% overnight after the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the biggest hike since 1994. The dollar index retreated from a 20-year high, easing downward pressure on oil prices. A stronger greenback makes U.S. dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, curtailing demand. Investors remained focused on tight supplies and robust demand as Western sanctions restricted access to Russian oil. In Libya, oil output has collapsed due to the shutdown of production and export facilities as a tactic in the country's political stalemate. Production fell to 100,000-150,000 barrels per day, a spokesman for the oil ministry said on Tuesday, a fraction of the 1.2 million bpd seen last year. Also, optimism that China's oil demand will rebound as it eases COVID-19 restrictions supported the price outlook. U.S. crude production, which has been largely stagnant over the last few months, edged up 100,000 barrels per day last week to 12 million bpd, its highest level since April 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. [EIA/S] U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell in the week through June 10, the EIA said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.80-22.45 23.05 23.55-24.25
Crude Oil 114.40-115.80 117.10-118.20 119.00-120.10
EURO/USD 1.0410-1.0460 1.0490-1.0550 1.0630-1.0690
GBP/USD 1.2050-1.2100 1.2150 1.2200-1.2310
USD/JPY 134.60-135.20 136.00 136.40-137.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,780
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.90 20.45 20.10-19.60
Crude Oil 113.00-110.50 109.75 108.00-106.20
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0330 1.0290 1.0250-1.2010
GBP/USD 1.2050-1.2010 1.1940 1.1890-1.1850
USD/JPY 134.00-133.50 132.90-132.00 131.20-130.60

Intra-Day Strategy (16th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1841.79/oz and low of US$1807.34/oz. Gold up 1.40% at US$1833.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1831-1907 keeping stop loss closing above 1907, targeting 1820-1801 and 1787-1780. Buy in between 1808-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1831-1840-1851 and 1870-1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,780
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$21.84/oz and low of US$21.00/oz settled up by 2.95% at US$21.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.60-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 21.90-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.90
S2     20.45
S3     20.10-19.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.80-22.45
R2     23.05
R3     23.55-24.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US120.97/bbl, intraday low of US$114.25/bbl and settled down by 1.814% to close at US$116.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 114.40-120.10 with stop loss at 120.10; targeting 113.00- 110.50-109.60 and 108.00-106.20. Buy above 113.00-106.50 with risk daily closing below 106.50 and targeting 114.40-115.80-117.10 and 118.20-119.00-120.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-110.50
S2     109.75
S3     108.00-106.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     114.40-115.80
R2     117.10-118.20
R3     119.00-120.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.347 Sell
20-DMA   115.04 Buy
50-DMA   109.51 Buy
100-DMA   102.69 Buy
200-DMA   92.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.915 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.807 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0358/EUR, high of US$1.0507/EUR and settled the day up by 0.239% to close at US$1.0439/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0410-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0390-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0410-1.0490-1.0550 and 1.0630-1.0690-1.0740..

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0390-1.0330
S2     1.0290
S3     1.0250-1.2010

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0410-1.0460
R2     1.0490-1.0550
R3     1.0630-1.0690

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1972/GBP, high of US$1.2204/GBP and settled the day down by 1.515% to close at US$1.2175/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2150-1.2010 with target 1.2200-1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2200-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2050-1.2010
S2     1.1940
S3     1.1890-1.1850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2050-1.2100
R2     1.2150
R3     1.2200-1.2310

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.732

Buy
20-DMA   1.2393 Sell
50-DMA   1.2587 Sell
100-DMA   1.2838 Sell
200-DMA   1.3111 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.247 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY133.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.58/USD and settled the day down 1.212% at JPY133.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.60-137.00 with risk above 137.00 targeting 134.00-133.50-132.90 and 132.00-131.20-130.60. Long positions above 134.00-130.60 with targets of 134.60-135.20-136.00 and 136.40-137.00 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.00-133.50
S2     132.90-132.00
S3     131.20-130.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     134.60-135.20
R2     136.00
R3     136.40-137.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   Buy
20-DMA   128.49 Buy
50-DMA   126.58 Buy
100-DMA   122.76 Buy
200-DMA   119.00 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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