AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, clawed back from a one-week low after sliding for two days with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike decision. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced earlier in the day to keep policy ultra-loose despite rising inflation while global central banks are taking tight monetary policies, the yen retreated sharply. “Now that that event risk is past, and the BOJ has stood pat, it's entirely logical that we went back from whence we came,” adding that he remained unconvinced the dollar has peaked. Global central banks are proactive in tightening monetary policies to tame soaring inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday its biggest interest rate hike since 1994. The Swiss National Bank also unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, while the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 1.25% on the same day. On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 229,000 for the week ended June 11, slightly below the number of 232,000 recorded from the previous week.
  • The Bank of Japan held firm with its rock-bottom interest rates Friday, resisting an intensifying global wave of central bank tightening and recent market pressure on the yen and government bonds. The central bank kept its policy settings for yield curve control and asset purchases, according to a statement Friday, in line with the forecasts of almost all surveyed economists. In a rare move, the bank added a reference to foreign exchange rates to its list of risks after the yen rapidly weakened to its lowest level in 24 years earlier this week. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is pushing back against mounting pressure to normalize policy as central banks race to raise interest rates and market bets mount against the BOJ’s ceiling on yields. With the policy gap with the Federal Reserve widening, the governor’s strong easing stance has led to a rapid fall in the yen, fueling concerns among businesses and households ahead of a key national election for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The yen whiplashed against the dollar immediately after the decision first weakening, then sharply strengthening, before weakening again. It remained off Wednesday’s 24-year low. After a battering earlier in the week, the currency has enjoyed some support after the Fed’s decision led to concerns over a possible US recession. By increasingly standing out as an outlier among global peers, Kuroda risks further criticism over the yen. The governor has insisted on keep easing in place given the economy’s relatively slow recovery from the pandemic, warning that any premature tightening would weigh on the economy. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points Wednesday, and more hikes are expected to come in the months ahead. The European Central Bank is en route to ditching negative rates by the end of September as it pledged to curb market stress at an emergency meeting this week. The Swiss National Bank surprised Thursday with the first rate increase in 15 years, while the Bank of England also pushed up rates again.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields clawed back after a decline during the previous session. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday decided to keep policy ultraloose despite rising inflation while global central banks are taking tight monetary policies. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered on Wednesday its biggest interest rate hike since 1994. The Swiss National Bank also unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, while the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 1.25% on the same day.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Friday as demand concerns emerged following this week's rate hikes, although persisting supply tightness and new sanctions on Iran limited the downside. If losses hold through the day, Brent futures would post their first weekly dip in five weeks, while U.S. crude futures would see their first decline in eight weeks Central banks across Europe raised interest rates on Thursday, some by amounts that shocked markets, and hinted at even higher borrowing costs to come to tame soaring inflation that is eroding savings and squeezing corporate profits. In South America, Argentina's central bank raised its benchmark rate by the most in three years on Thursday, as it fights inflation running at over 60%. Those moves came on the heels of Wednesday's 75 basis point rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the highest since 1994. However, investors remained focused on tight supplies after the United States announced new sanctions on Iran. Washington on Thursday imposed sanctions on Chinese and Emirates companies and a network of Iranian firms that help export Iran's petrochemicals, a step that may aim to raise pressure on Tehran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,851-1,859 1,870 1,879-1,888
Silver-XAG 22.05-22.45 23.05 23.55-24.25
Crude Oil 115.80-117.10 118.20 119.00-120.10
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0630 1.0690 1.0770-1.0840
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2390 1.2450 1.2490-1.2550
USD/JPY 134.60-135.20 136.00 136.40-137.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,820 1,807 1,798-1,787
Silver-XAG 21.80-21.20 20.90 20.45-20.10
Crude Oil 114.40-113.00 110.50 109.75-108.00
EURO/USD 1.0460-1.0410 1.0390 1.0330-1.0290
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 134.00-133.50 132.90-132.00 131.20-130.60

Intra-Day Strategy (17th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1857.44/oz and low of US$1814.95/oz. Gold up 1.262% at US$1856.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1851-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1840-1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1840-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,840-1,820
S2     1,807
S3     1,798-1,787
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,851-1,859
R2     1,870
R3     1,879-1,888

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$21.95/oz and low of US$21.33/oz settled up by 1.325% at US$21.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.80-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.05-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.80-21.20
S2     20.90
S3     20.45-20.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.05-22.45
R2     23.05
R3     23.55-24.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US115.54/bbl, intraday low of US$110.30/bbl and settled up by 0.646% to close at US$114.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 115.80-120.10 with stop loss at 120.10; targeting 114.40-113.00-110.50 and 109.60-108.00-106.20. Buy above 114.40-108.00 with risk daily closing below 108.00 and targeting 115.80-117.10 and 118.20-119.00-120.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.40-113.00
S2     110.50
S3     109.75-108.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     115.80-117.10
R2     118.20
R3     119.00-120.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.950 Sell
20-DMA   114.63 Buy
50-DMA   109.94 Buy
100-DMA   103.30 Buy
200-DMA   93.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.305 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0380/EUR, high of US$1.0600/EUR and settled the day up by 1.0192% to close at US$1.0545/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0460-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0460-1.0410
S2     1.0390
S3     1.0330-1.0290

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0550-1.0630
R2     1.0690
R3     1.0770-1.0840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2040/GBP, high of US$1.2406/GBP and settled the day up by 1.429% to close at US$1.2349/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2200-1.2010 with target 1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200-1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2390
R2     1.2450
R3     1.2490-1.2550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY133.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.58/USD and settled the day down 1.212% at JPY133.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.60-137.00 with risk above 137.00 targeting 134.00-133.50-132.90 and 132.00-131.20-130.60. Long positions above 134.00-130.60 with targets of 134.60-135.20-136.00 and 136.40-137.00 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.00-133.50
S2     132.90-132.00
S3     131.20-130.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     134.60-135.20
R2     136.00
R3     136.40-137.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   Buy
20-DMA   128.49 Buy
50-DMA   126.58 Buy
100-DMA   122.76 Buy
200-DMA   119.00 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING