AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The safe haven dollar gained ground on most peers on Wednesday as investors turned nervous again about global growth prospects, while the yen hit a fresh 24-year low as elevated bond yields in the U.S. and Europe contrasted with low Japanese interest rates. An elevated CPI figure would add further pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates, as Britain, like most developed economies, grapples with sky high inflation. Wednesday's other main event is the start of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony to Congress, with investors looking for further clues about whether another 75 basis point rate hike is on the cards at the Fed's July meeting. Analysts see no immediate end to a sell-off that has seen the yen weaken 18% so far this year from 115.08 at the end of 2021. The currency has been weakening as higher energy prices put pressure on Japan's current account and because of the ever widening gap between yields on Japanese government bonds and U.S. Treasuries. The Bank of Japan last week maintained ultra-low interest rates and vowed to defend its policy of yield curve control (YCC), which effectively caps the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond at 0.25%. Some investors had bet the BOJ would tweak that policy, which is causing ructions in Japan's bond market, a move that would typically cause the yen to strengthen and Japanese government bond yields to rise. Wong said because the BOJ had not changed its policy at last week's meeting, these positions were now being unwound or reversed with some betting the yen would continue to weaken. Bitcoin was at $20,600, struggling to break away from the symbolic $20,000 level in either direction, following recent declines.
  • Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia as the U.S. dollar firmed ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair’s two-day testimony where investors are expecting to seek more clues on monetary policies. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, edged up on Wednesday morning, denting demand for non-yielding bullion Fed Chair Jerome Powell will start a two-day testimony to Congress later in the day, with investors looking to see more clues on if the Fed will deliver another interest rate hike of 75 basis points However, concerns of an economic downturn continued to weigh on the market, with Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk warning that the U.S. is heading toward a recession Looking ahead, spot gold may test a support at $1,821 per ounce, with a good chance of breaking below this level and falling to $1,812, according to Reuters’ technical analyst Wang Tao.
  • Oil was down on Wednesday morning in Asia as U.S. President Joe Biden is set to push for U.S. fuel cost cuts. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected on Wednesday to call on Congress to temporarily suspend a federal tax on gasoline to bring down soaring fuel prices and alleviate the pressure on consumers. Seven oil companies are set to meet Biden on Thursday, under pressure from the White House to bring down fuel prices. However, energy company Chevron’s Chief Executive Officer Michael Wirth said on Tuesday that criticizing the oil industry was not the way to lower fuel prices. Elsewhere, since European oil sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine haven’t taken effect, the supply is set to get tighter. Oil prices dived more than $4 a barrel on Wednesday amid a push by U.S. President Joe Biden to bring down soaring fuel costs, including pressure on the country's major energy firms to help ease the pain for drivers during peak summer consumption As the United States struggles to tackle soaring gasoline prices and inflation, President Joe Biden is expected on Wednesday to call for temporarily suspending the 18.4-cents a gallon federal tax on gasoline, a source briefed on the plan told Reuters. Despite worries about inflation, demand is still on the road to recovery to pre-COVID levels and supply is expected to lag demand growth, keeping the market tight, as flagged by trading giant Vitol and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) this week. Meanwhile, U.S. oil refining capacity fell in 2021 for the second year in a row, the latest government data showed on Tuesday, as plant shutdowns kept whittling away at their ability to produce gasoline and diesel. The official data showed a capacity decline of 125,790 barrels per day (bpd) last year on top of the 800,000 bpd drop in 2020.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.80-22.05 22.45 23.05-23.55
Crude Oil 105.50-107.00 108.00 109.75-110.50
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0630 1.0690 1.0770-1.0840
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2390 1.2450 1.2490-1.2550
USD/JPY 137.00-137.90 138.50 139.00-139.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,775
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.90 20.45 20.10-19.50
Crude Oil 103.30-101.00 100.20 99.00-97.10
EURO/USD 1.0460-1.0410 1.0390 1.0330-1.0290
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 136.00-135.20 134.60-133.50 132.90-132.00

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1843.51/oz and low of US$1834.66/oz. Gold down 0.169% at US$1832.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1820-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1840-1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,775
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$21.93/oz and low of US$21.48/oz settled up by 0.486% at US$21.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.80-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.05-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.90
S2     20.45
S3     20.10-19.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.80-22.05
R2     22.45
R3     23.05-23.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US110.78/bbl, intraday low of US$108.34/bbl and settled up by 0.670% to close at US$109.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 109.75-115.80 with stop loss at 115.80; targeting 108.00-106.20-105.50 and 103.30-101.00. Buy above 108.00-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 109.75-110.50-113.00 and 114.40-115.80-117.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.30-101.00
S2     100.20
S3     99.00-97.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     105.50-107.00
R2     108.00
R3     109.75-110.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.820 Sell
20-DMA   113.45 Buy
50-DMA   109.63 Buy
100-DMA   103.28 Buy
200-DMA   93.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.305 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0506/EUR, high of US$1.0582/EUR and settled the day up by 0.065% to close at US$1.0515/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0460-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0460-1.0410
S2     1.0390
S3     1.0330-1.0290

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0550-1.0630
R2     1.0690
R3     1.0770-1.0840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2237/GBP, high of US$1.2324/GBP and settled the day up by 0.145% to close at US$1.2265/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2200-1.2010 with target 1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200-1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2390
R2     1.2450
R3     1.2490-1.2550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY134.83/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.70/USD and settled the day up 1.15% at JPY136.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 137.00-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 136.00-135.20-134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 136.00-130.60 with targets of 137.00 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     136.00-135.20
S2     134.60-133.50
S3     132.90-132.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     137.00-137.90
R2     138.50
R3     139.00-139.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.380 Buy
20-DMA   133.00 Buy
50-DMA   129.79 Buy
100-DMA   125.77 Buy
200-DMA   120.88 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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