AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar eased back slightly from a 20-year high reached earlier this month on Monday, following disappointing U.S. economic data that may dampen expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Dollar index is trading below a two-decade peak of 105.79 touched on June 15 after the Fed raised borrowing costs by 75 basis points in a bid to curb soaring inflation. Fears that these Fed actions could trigger a global economic downturn gave support to the greenback and the perceived relative safety of dollar-denominated assets. But on Friday, the final June reading of the closely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slumped to a record low, suggesting that Americans are becoming more pessimistic about the economic outlook amid a recent spike in prices. The gloomy mood may lead some investors to reevaluate their predictions for potential Fed rate rises. Elsewhere, China's yuan is holding near the flatline following an announcement by authorities in Shanghai that the city had emerged victorious over a recent COVID-19 outbreak. In Russia, the USD/RUB was also steady at 53.40 per dollar after a deadline for Moscow to repay foreign debt passed, potentially putting the country on a path toward default.
  • The dollar and Japanese yen both found support in a choppy Asia session on Monday, benefiting from a bid for safety as investors worried rising interest rates and softening economic data could signal a global recession is on the horizon. While stocks followed Wall Street higher, currency traders were wary of extending Friday's dollar selling too much because the dollar typically rises in times of uncertainty. Weakening U.S. economic data knocked it off that perch last week, and a survey released on Friday showed consumer confidence at a record low, giving another prompt for investors to cut back bets on U.S. interest rate hikes. But the spectre of a global slowdown, and a preference for dollar-denominated assets in such times, has prevented further falls. Futures pricing shows traders now anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark funds rate stabilising around 3.5% from March next year, a pullback from pricing in rates zooming to around 4% in 2023. Treasuries rallied last week. Chinese factory activity data due to be released later this week could provide a guide as to whether the world's second-largest economy is finding momentum again after the disruption caused by strict COVID-19 lockdown measures. The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia over recession fears following weakening U.S. consumer confidence. U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment released on Friday showed that consumer confidence was at a record low in June, prompting investors’ bets on U.S. interest rate hikes. For monetary policy moves, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Friday that she supports another 75 basis-point interest rate hike in July while Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said fears of a U.S. recession are overblown. Investors now also shift their focus to the Group of Seven (G7) leaders' meeting. The leaders plan to offer indefinite support to Ukraine for its defense against Russia’s invasion. The U.S., UK, Japan, and Canada also plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G7 summit.
  • Oil prices edged down on Monday in a volatile session as investors stood on guard for any moves against Russian oil and gas exports that might come out of a meeting of leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations in Germany The prospect of more supply tightness loomed over the market as western governments sought ways to cut Russia's ability to fund its war in Ukraine, even though G7 leaders were also expected to discuss a revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which might lead to more Iranian oil exports. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will likely stick to a plan for accelerated oil output increases in August when they meet on Thursday, sources said. But, for now, the pressing supply worries outweighed growing concerns over the potential for a global recession following a string of downbeat economic data from the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer. Both contracts fell last week for the second week in a row as interest rate hikes in key economies strengthened the dollar and fanned recession fears. However, oil prices are well supported above $100 a barrel while the backwardation in prompt monthly spreads remained wide. Backwardation is the market structure when prompt futures prices are higher than prices for delivery in later months, indicating limited supplies. G7 leaders, who began their meeting on Sunday, are expected to discuss options for tackling rising energy prices and replacing Russian oil and gas imports, as well as further sanctions that do not exacerbate inflation. These measures include a possible price cap on Russian oil exports to reduce Moscow's revenues while limiting the damage to other economies. The G7 will also discuss the prospect of reviving the Iran nuclear talks after the European Union's foreign policy chief met senior officials in Tehran to try to unblock the stalled negotiations, a French presidency official said on Sunday. In addition, some of the G7 leaders are pushing for an acknowledgement of the need for new financing for fossil energies investment, two sources told Reuters on Sunday, as European states scramble to diversify supplies.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.80-22.05 22.45 23.05-23.55
Crude Oil 107.00 108.00 109.75-110.50
EURO/USD 1.0630-1.0690 1.0770 1.0840-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2390 1.2450 1.2490-1.2550
USD/JPY 135.20-136.00 137.00 137.38.5090

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,775
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.90 20.45 20.10-19.50
Crude Oil 105.50-103.30 101.00 100.20-99.00
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0460 1.0410 1.0390-1.0330
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 134.60-133.50 132.90 132.00-131.10

Intra-Day Strategy (27th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1831.66/oz and low of US$1816.85/oz. Gold up 0.2611% at US$1827.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1820-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1840-1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,775
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$21.44/oz and low of US$20.60/oz settled ip by 0.921% at US$21.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.80-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.05-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.90
S2     20.45
S3     20.10-19.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.80-22.05
R2     22.45
R3     23.05-23.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US107.58/bbl, intraday low of US$102.75/bbl and settled up by 2.894% to close at US$106.09/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 105.50-109.75 with stop loss at 109.75; targeting 103.30-101.00-100.20 and 99.00-97.10. Buy above 103.30-97.00 with risk daily closing below 97.00 and targeting 105.50-107.00-108.00 and 109.75-110.50-113.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50-103.30
S2     101.00
S3     100.20-99.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     107.00
R2     108.00
R3     109.75-110.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.820 Sell
20-DMA   113.45 Buy
50-DMA   109.63 Buy
100-DMA   103.28 Buy
200-DMA   93.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.305 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0511/EUR, high of US$1.0570/EUR and settled the day up by 0.304% to close at US$1.0546/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0460-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0550-1.0460
S2     1.0410
S3     1.0390-1.0330

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0630-1.0690
R2     1.0770
R3     1.0840-1.0900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2160/GBP, high of US$1.2314/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0326% to close at US$1.2260/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2200-1.2010 with target 1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200-1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2390
R2     1.2450
R3     1.2490-1.2550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY134.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.39/USD and settled the day up 0.154% at JPY135.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 135.20-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 135.20-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.60-133.50
S2     132.90
S3     132.00-131.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     135.20-136.00
R2     137.00
R3     137.38.5090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.382 Buy
20-DMA   133.30 Buy
50-DMA   130.16 Buy
100-DMA   126.11 Buy
200-DMA   121.15 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.035 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1710 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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