AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia despite worries about economic recession. Investors await a speech from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Governor of the People’s Bank of China Yi Gang said the central bank will keep its policy supportive for China's economy. Investors are keeping an eye on signs of weakness in recent economic data, which would possibly moderate interest rate hikes. But they are also concerned that it could be a sign of the onset of a difficult period of stagflation. Across the Atlantic, German inflation figures are due on Wednesday, and French data is due on Thursday. The ECB President Christine Lagarde, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal this Wednesday. The Group of Seven (G7) leaders are about to discuss the means to tackle rising energy prices. They are examining a new package of actions aimed at increasing pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine.
  • The U.S. dollar struggled versus its major rivals on Monday as softening inflation expectations prompted a reassessment of the prospects for aggressive interest rate hikes but volatile markets cushioned a broader decline. Aggressive rate hike bets have boosted the dollar with an index rising to a near two-decade high of 105.79 earlier this month. But with some high-frequency data indicators showing economic momentum starting to cool and a broader drop in commodity prices, investors are becoming cautious. Futures pricing shows traders now anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark funds rate stabilizing around 3.5% from March next year, a pullback from pricing in rates zooming to around 4% in 2023 Meanwhile, the euro was buoyed by expectations that the European Central Bank will soon raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. The euro led gainers versus the dollar as the European Central Bank's annual forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal, got under way with ECB President Christine Lagarde and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell both attending the meeting. Markets will watch for any signs of future policy moves. Commodity currencies came under pressure on Monday as data showed profits at China's industrial firms shrank again, albeit at a slower pace, in May after a sharp fall in April. Elsewhere, Russia's rouble weakened in the interbank market as Russia headed for its first sovereign default since the Bolshevik revolution a century ago.
  • Gold rose Tuesday morning in Asia as the U.S. dollar weakened on softening inflation expectations. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, also edged up on Wednesday morning. Softening inflation expectations prompted a reassessment of the prospects for aggressive interest rate hikes. As a way to tighten the sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the U.S., UK, Japan, and Canada also plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G7 summit. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are due to speak at the ECB event this Wednesday. U.S. core durable goods orders data which measures the total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods increased 0.7% in May, pointing to sustained strength in business spending on equipment, but the rising interest rate could slow the momentum. In Asia-Pacific, Hong Kong’s official data Monday showed that China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong rose 58.3% in May month-on-month as COVID-19 curbs eased in major cities.
  • Oil was up on Tuesday morning in Asia amid tight supplies. But leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations vowed to add pressure on Russia while lowering energy prices. The (G7) has vowed to stand with Ukraine "for as long as it takes." A proposal to cap the price of Russian oil is one of the new sanctions on Moscow's finances. A French presidency official suggested the international community should explore all options to alleviate tight energy supplies, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela. Both OPEC members' oil exports have been curbed by U.S. sanctions. Furthermore, interest rate hikes in key economies strengthened the dollar and fanned fears of a global recession. Recession fears and interest rate hike expectations have caused volatility and risk aversion in the futures markets. Some energy investors have pared back, while spot crude prices have remained strong on high demand and a supply crunch. For now, pressing supply worries outweigh growth concerns. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, are likely to stick to a plan for accelerated oil output increases in August when they meet on Thursday, sources said. The producer group also cut its projected 2022 oil market surplus to 1 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.4 million bpd previously, a report seen by Reuters showed. Libya might also halt exports in the Gulf of Sirte area within 72 hours amid unrest that has restricted production. Adding to supply woes, Ecuador might suspend oil production completely within 48 hours amid anti-government protests that have seen at least six people die. Traders are also waiting for the U.S. government oil inventory and other data to be published after it was not released last week due to server issues. U.S. crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.80-22.05 22.45 23.05-23.55
Crude Oil 110.60-111.50 113.30 114.00-115.00
EURO/USD 1.0630-1.0690 1.0770 1.0840-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2390 1.2490-1.2550 1.2490-1.2550
USD/JPY 135.20-136.00 137.00 137.38.5090

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,775
Silver-XAG 21.20-20.90 20.45 20.10-19.50
Crude Oil 109.75-108.00 107.00-105.50 103.30-101.00
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0460 1.0410 1.0390-1.0330
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 134.60-133.50 132.90 132.00-131.10

Intra-Day Strategy (28th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1840.95/oz and low of US$1820.62/oz. Gold down 0.868% at US$1822.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1820-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1840-1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,775
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$21.53/oz and low of US$21.08/oz settled down by 0.301% at US$21.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.80-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.05-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.20-20.90
S2     20.45
S3     20.10-19.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.80-22.05
R2     22.45
R3     23.05-23.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.588 Buy
20-DMA   22.12 Sell
50-DMA   22.83 Sell
100-DMA   23.32 Sell
200-DMA   23.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US109.37/bbl, intraday low of US$104.45/bbl and settled up by 2.894% to close at US$108.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 105.50-109.75 with stop loss at 109.75; targeting 103.30-101.00-100.20 and 99.00-97.10. Buy above 103.30-97.00 with risk daily closing below 97.00 and targeting 105.50-107.00-108.00 and 109.75-110.50-113.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.75-108.00
S2     107.00-105.50
S3     103.30-101.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     110.60-111.50
R2     113.30
R3     114.00-115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.311 Sell
20-DMA   110.63 Buy
50-DMA   109.08 Buy
100-DMA   103.70 Buy
200-DMA   94.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.905 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0545/EUR, high of US$1.0614/EUR and settled the day up by 0.351% to close at US$1.0582/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0460-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0550-1.0460
S2     1.0410
S3     1.0390-1.0330

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0630-1.0690
R2     1.0770
R3     1.0840-1.0900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2237/GBP, high of US$1.2331/GBP and settled the day up by 0..078% to close at US$1.2264/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2200-1.2010 with target 1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200-1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2390
R2     1.2490-1.2550
R3     1.2490-1.2550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY134.51/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.54/USD and settled the day up 0.259% at JPY135.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 135.20-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 135.20-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.60-133.50
S2     132.90
S3     132.00-131.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     135.20-136.00
R2     137.00
R3     137.38.5090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.382 Buy
20-DMA   133.30 Buy
50-DMA   130.16 Buy
100-DMA   126.11 Buy
200-DMA   121.15 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.035 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1710 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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