AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday, as traders sought refuge in this safe haven given the ongoing concerns of a global economic slowdown. The dollar gained on Tuesday after data showed U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 16-month low in June on fears high inflation could cause the U.S. economy to slow significantly in the second half of the year. Adding to the buck’s strength was euro weakness after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde offered no fresh insight on the path for European interest rates or the makeup of the new anti-fragmentation tool at the central bank's annual forum. EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.0490, falling to levels not seen for almost two weeks, even after the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state by population, said consumer prices fell by 0.1% on the month in June, bringing the annual rate of inflation down to 7.5% from 8.1%. The ECB is widely expected to follow its global peers by raising interest rates in July for the first time in a decade to try to cool soaring inflation, but there are concerns this could lead to a significant increase of borrowing costs in the eurozone’s more indebted countries. Morgan Stanley is now looking for the eurozone to fall into a mild recession in the fourth quarter of this year, contracting for two quarters before resuming growth in the second quarter of next year driven by an increase in investment. President Christine Lagarde will appear at a panel discussion later Wednesday, along with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and any comments over the trade-off between curbing inflation and trying to ensure a soft-landing for the global economy will be studied closely.
  • The dollar edged higher on Wednesday, keeping its index against major peers nestled below a two-decade high struck two weeks ago, with investors seeking safety in U.S. assets as stocks declined globally due to the mounting risk of a recession. The greenback was firm despite U.S. 10-year Treasury yields retreating by nearly one percentage point in Tokyo trading, as bonds remained in favour with investors due to the souring risk sentiment. Asian equities slid, following heavy Wall Street losses overnight after a steep drop in U.S. consumer confidence stoked worries about an economic slowdown at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve is rushing to raise interest rates to bring inflation under control. The euro slipped 0.14% to $1.0506 after dipping as low as$1.05025 on Tuesday, when European Central Bank (ECB) chief Christine Lagarde offered no fresh insight on the path for European interest rates at the ECB's annual forum. The ECB is widely expected to follow its global peers by raising interest rates in July for the first time in a decade to try to cool accelerating inflation, though economists are divided on the magnitude of any hike. Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on a panel at the forum later on Wednesday.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, supported by recession concerns as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased. Bullion was caught between pressure from prospects of higher interest rates and support from recession risks. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco’s Mary Daly said that they had to cool inflation but insisted that a soft landing was still possible. Higher interest rates and bond yields would dent bullion demand as it yields no interest. The U.S. banned new imports of Russian gold, acting on commitments made by the Group of Seven leaders this week to further punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. U.S. conference board (CB) consumer confidence fell to a 16-month low in June as high inflation left consumers to worry about a slowing economy. In Asia-Pacific, China took a surprise move Tuesday to cut quarantine times for inbound travelers to seven days from 14 days in centralized quarantine facilities. The step lifted market hopes of China’s shift to another COVID-19 strategy which could cost less economic damage.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday after rising in the previous three sessions as the market tussled between concerns about the global economy and tight global oil supplies. Both contracts rose more than 2% on Tuesday as concerns over tight supplies due to Western sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of that demand may slow in a potential future recession. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been seen as the only two members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with spare capacity to make up for lost Russian supply. However, comments from UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei and French President Emmanuel Macron this week indicated little room for these producers to increase output further. Analysts also warned political unrest in Ecuador and Libya could tighten supply further. More changes to Russian oil trade may come after the Group of Seven economic powers agreed on Tuesday to explore ways to cap the price of Russian oil, allowing more supplies into the market while curbing Moscow's revenues. However, traders and analysts are sceptical about how it would work and that such an agreement will require cooperation from China and India. In the United States, crude inventories are forecast to have fallen for the last two weeks, according to a Reuters poll. The government's weekly petroleum status report last week was delayed due to a hardware issue. The data for both weeks will published together on Wednesday. Data from American Petroleum Institute showed gasoline and distillates stocks rose while crude inventories fell for the week ending June 24, according to market sources citing API figures on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.20-21.80 22.05 22.45-23.05
Crude Oil 110.60-111.50 113.30 114.00-115.00
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0630 1.0690 1.0770-1.0840
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2310 1.2390 1.2450-1.2490
USD/JPY 135.20-136.00 137.00 137.38-138.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,775
Silver-XAG 20.70-20.45 20.00 19.50-19.05
Crude Oil 109.75-108.00 107.00-105.50 103.30-101.00
EURO/USD 1.0460-1.0410 1.0390 1.0335-1.0290
GBP/USD 1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 134.60-133.50 132.90 132.00-131.10

Intra-Day Strategy (29th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1829.38/oz and low of US$1818.20/oz. Gold down 0.144% at US$1819.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1820-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1840-1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,775
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1855.89 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$21.35/oz and low of US$20.78/oz settled down by 1.516% at US$20.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.20-19.60, targeting 21.80-22.05-22.50 and 23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 22.05-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 21.30-21.05-20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.70-20.45
S2     20.00
S3     19.50-19.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.20-21.80
R2     22.05
R3     22.45-23.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.731 Buy
20-DMA   22.45 Sell
50-DMA   22.10 Sell
100-DMA   22.75 Sell
200-DMA   23.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.815 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US111.02/bbl, intraday low of US$108.45/bbl and settled up by 1.742% to close at US$110.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 110.60-115.00 with stop loss at 115.00; targeting 109.75-108.00-107.00 and 105.50-103.30-101.00. Buy above 109.75-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 110.60-111.50-113.30 and 114.00-115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.75-108.00
S2     107.00-105.50
S3     103.30-101.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     110.60-111.50
R2     113.30
R3     114.00-115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.311 Sell
20-DMA   110.63 Buy
50-DMA   109.08 Buy
100-DMA   103.70 Buy
200-DMA   94.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.905 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0502/EUR, high of US$1.0605/EUR and settled the day down by 0.612% to close at US$1.0517/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0460-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0460-1.0410
S2     1.0390
S3     1.0335-1.0290

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0550-1.0630
R2     1.0690
R3     1.0770-1.0840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2179/GBP, high of US$1.2291/GBP and settled the day up by 0.078% to close at US$1.2182/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2150-1.2010 with target 1.2200-1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2200-1.2310
R2     1.2390
R3     1.2450-1.2490

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY135.10/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.38/USD and settled the day up 0.479% at JPY136.08/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 135.20-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 135.20-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.60-133.50
S2     132.90
S3     132.00-131.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     135.20-136.00
R2     137.00
R3     137.38-138.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.958 Buy
20-DMA   134.01 Buy
50-DMA   130.82 Buy
100-DMA   126.69 Buy
200-DMA   121.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.035 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1710 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING