AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The euro struggled to regain its footing on Thursday after tumbling overnight against a resurgent U.S. dollar, which benefited from safe-haven demand on renewed worries about higher rates and a global recession. It also dropped to a fresh 7-1/2-year low versus the Swiss franc at 0.9963 francs early in the Asia session on Thursday, with the Alpine currency another beneficiary of safe-haven flows and also still basking in the afterglow of the Swiss National Bank's surprise rate hike two weeks ago. Christopher Wong, senior FX strategist at Maybank, attributed the euro's fall against the dollar to the market moving away from riskier assets after "central bankers warned of lasting inflation and that they would prioritise combating (it), resulting in broad dollar rebound overnight." A steady and aggressive global switch to tighter policy has stoked recession worries and shaken financial markets in recent months. Speaking on Wednesday at the European Central Bank's annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was important to bring down inflation, even if it meant economic pain, with similar remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Lower German inflation figures also briefly weighed on the euro, said Ray Attrill head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), before "the market realised that there was some special factors there, it wasn't a genuine downside surprise." The BOJ is able to keep interest rates pinned down because Japanese inflation is still low by global standards, though even small price rises are causing a messaging problem for the central bank. Bitcoin dipped back below the symbolic $20,000 level on persistent market ructions, and was also hurt by the U.S. Securities and Exchange rejecting a proposal to list a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund by Grayscale, one of the world's biggest digital asset managers.
  • The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, after central bank chiefs signaled a resolution to bring down inflation. Christopher Wong, the senior FX strategist at Maybank, attributed the euro’s fall against the dollar to the market moving away from riskier assets after “central bankers warned of lasting inflation and that they would prioritize combating (it), resulting in broad dollar rebound overnight”. Central banks’ hawkish stances have stoked recession fears and shaken financial markets in recent months. Global stocks are set to close out their worst quarter since the three months ended March 2020. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European and U.K. counterparts warned that inflation could be long-lasting during the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual forum in Portugal. He added that it was important to bring down inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said officials should act forcefully to curb price pressures. Mester said that the Fed is “just at the beginning” of rising rates and she wants to see the benchmark lending rate reach 3% to 3.5% this year and “a little bit above 4% next year” even if that might drag the economy into a recession. In Asia-Pacific, China’s factory activity expanded for the first time in four months as lockdowns ended in major cities such as Shanghai. Official data released earlier in the day showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the first expansion since February. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping said zero-COVID is still the most “economic and effective” policy for China although the country just slashed COVID quarantine time for inbound travelers.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, set to fall for a third straight month, as investors assessed bullion’s outlook with major central banks adopting aggressive means to bring down soaring prices. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched down on Thursday morning. The dollar hovered near recent two-decade peaks. The strengthening dollar has dented non-yielding bullion’s demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation could be long-lasting, and it was important to bring down inflation despite the economic pain during the European Central Bank (ECB)’ s annual forum in Portugal. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said officials should act forcefully to curb price pressures. Looking forward, the bias will become increasingly bearish as rate hikes continue to come through and bring down inflation expectations, DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak told Reuters, adding that $1,780-$1,790 is a critical support level. In Asia-Pacific, official data released earlier in the day showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the first expansion since February, indicating that the country’s factory activity is expanding.
  • Oil was up on Thursday morning in Asia as concerns about global supply tightness outweighed a build in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories. Wednesday’s U.S. crude supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 2.762 million barrels for the week ended June 24 while U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles climbed Some analysts think further disruptions such as unrest in producers Libya and Ecuador could support oil prices However, concerns over slowing economic growth continued to cap price gains. Crude supply data from the American Petroleum Institute released the day before, showed a draw of 3.799 million barrels

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th June 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,840-1,851 1,859 1,870-1,879
Silver-XAG 21.20-21.80 22.05 22.45-23.05
Crude Oil 109.75-110.60 111.50-113.30 114.00-115.00
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0630 1.0690 1.0770-1.0840
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2310 1.2390 1.2450-1.2490
USD/JPY 136.00-137.00 137.38 138.50-139.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th June 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,820-1,807 1,798 1,787-1,775
Silver-XAG 20.70-20.45 20.00 19.50-19.05
Crude Oil 108.00-107.00 105.50 103.30-101.00
EURO/USD 1.0440-1.0410 1.0390 1.0390
GBP/USD 1.2150 1.2100 1.2050-1.2010
USD/JPY 135.20-134.60 133.50 132.90-132.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th June 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1832.83/oz and low of US$1811.94/oz. Gold down 0.105% at US$1817.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1831-1820 and 1801-1787. Buy in between 1820-1786 with risk below 1786, targeting 1840-1851-1859-1870 and 1879-1890.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,820-1,807
S2     1,798
S3     1,787-1,775
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,840-1,851
R2     1,859
R3     1,870-1,879

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$21.05/oz and low of US$20.62/oz settled down by 0.350% at US$20.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.70-19.60, targeting 21.20-21.80-22.05 and 22.50-23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 21.20-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.70-20.45
S2     20.00
S3     19.50-19.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.20-21.80
R2     22.05
R3     22.45-23.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.731 Buy
20-DMA   22.45 Sell
50-DMA   22.10 Sell
100-DMA   22.75 Sell
200-DMA   23.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.815 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US112.68/bbl, intraday low of US$107.93/bbl and settled up by 2.04% to close at US$108.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 109.75-115.00 with stop loss at 115.00; targeting 109.75-108.00-107.00 and 105.50-103.30-101.00. Buy above 108.00-101.00 with risk daily closing below 101.00 and targeting 110.60-111.50-113.30 and 114.00-115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.00
S2     105.50
S3     103.30-101.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     109.75-110.60
R2     111.50-113.30
R3     114.00-115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.311 Sell
20-DMA   110.63 Buy
50-DMA   109.08 Buy
100-DMA   103.70 Buy
200-DMA   94.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.905 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0434/EUR, high of US$1.0535/EUR and settled the day down by 0.739% to close at US$1.0439/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0440-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0440-1.0410
S2     1.0390
S3     1.0390

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0550-1.0630
R2     1.0690
R3     1.0770-1.0840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2104/GBP, high of US$1.2212/GBP and settled the day down by 0.510% to close at US$1.2119/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2150-1.2010 with target 1.2200-1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2150
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2050-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2200-1.2310
R2     1.2390
R3     1.2450-1.2490

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2388 Sell
50-DMA   1.2570 Sell
100-DMA   1.2820 Sell
200-DMA   1.3096 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.703 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0. Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY135.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.99/USD and settled the day up 0.369% at JPY136.58/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.00-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 135.20-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     135.20-134.60
S2     133.50
S3     132.90-132.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     136.00-137.00
R2     137.38
R3     138.50-139.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.958 Buy
20-DMA   134.01 Buy
50-DMA   130.82 Buy
100-DMA   126.69 Buy
200-DMA   121.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.035 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1710 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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