AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar stabilized in early European trade Thursday, but still lies near its two-decade peak, given safe-haven demand on renewed worries about higher rates and a global recession. Falling U.S. bond yields have slowed the dollar's ascent Thursday, but the greenback remains in demand as a safe haven with central bankers continuing to express the need to tackle red-hot inflation, even at the expense of a sharp economic slowdown in global growth. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, speaking on Wednesday at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Portugal, defended the U.S. central bank’s recent 75 basis point interest rate rise - the largest hike since 1994 - as necessary to help bring inflation back down to its 2% target, even though a broader economic slowdown would be a "likely" outcome. ECB President Christine Lagarde also warned that inflation in the Eurozone is "undesirably high," and the central bank will go "as far as necessary" to bring inflation back down to its 2% target, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said policymakers “have the option” of acting more forcefully to contain inflation, not ruling out a hike of 50 basis points at the next meeting. German retail sales increased in May, despite a slight decline in turnover in food retailing, rising by 0.6% in real terms compared with the previous month, but this still represented a drop of 3.6% on the year. GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2148, but sterling is still on course for its biggest six-month loss against the dollar, over 10%, after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the U.K. economy was starting to slow while inflation is expected to continue to climb, raising fears of stagflation. British house prices rose at a slower pace in June than in May, but the average price of a home still hit a new record, according to data from mortgage lender, Nationwide.
  • The euro recovered on Thursday from a two-week low against the dollar, which sputtered after fresh inflation data showed U.S. consumer spending rose less than expected in May. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, gained 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, falling short of the 0.4% economists had expected. The euro was last up 0.33% at $1.0473, reversing a decline sparked by increasing recession jitters in the euro zone and the energy crisis stoked by the war in Ukraine. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade to try to cool accelerating inflation, although economists are divided on the magnitude of any hike. Markets will now look to euro zone inflation figures due on Friday to get a better sense of how aggressive the ECB might be in hiking rates. Fresh euro zone data showed French inflation climbed to a record high of 6.5% in June, while Greece cut its growth forecast to 3.2% this year from 3.8%. Euro zone unemployment fell to a new record low in May as the economy continued to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, even if inflation exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is expected to dampen growth. The dollar also traded just below a fresh 24-year peak of 137 Japanese yen touched on Wednesday. The gap between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish Bank of Japan continues to weigh heavily on the Japanese currency, which was last trading at 135.59 yen per dollar . In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin dipped back below the $20,000 milestone level on persistent market ructions. It was also hurt by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejecting a proposal to list a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund by digital asset manager Grayscale. Bitcoin last fell 6.28% to $18,922.55.
  • Oil prices eased on Friday as lingering fears of a recession demand weighed on sentiment, putting the benchmarks on track for their third straight weekly losses. On Thursday, the OPEC+ group of producers, including Russia, agreed to stick to its output strategy after two days of meetings. However, the producer club avoided discussing policy from September onwards. Previously, OPEC+ decided to increase output each month by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, up from a previous plan to add 432,000 bpd per month. U.S. President Joe Biden will make a three-stop trip to the Middle East in mid-July that includes a visit to Saudi Arabia, pushing energy policy into the spotlight as the United States and other countries face soaring fuel prices that are driving up inflation. Biden said on Thursday he would not directly press Saudi Arabia to increase oil output to curb soaring prices when he sees the Saudi king and crown prince during a visit this month. Elsewhere, 74 Norwegian offshore oil workers at Equinor's Gudrun, Oseberg South and Oseberg East platforms will go on strike from July 5, the Lederne trade union said on Thursday, likely shutting about 4% of Norway's oil production. Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel this year as Europe and other regions struggle to wean themselves off Russian supply, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, though economic risks could slow the climb.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st July 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,807-1,820 1,840 1,851-1,859
Silver-XAG 20.45-20.70 21.20 21.80-22.05
Crude Oil 105.50-107.00 108.00 109.75-110.60
EURO/USD 1.0550-1.0630 1.0690 1.0770-1.0840
GBP/USD 1.2200-1.2310 1.2390 1.2450-1.2490
USD/JPY 135.20-136.00 137.00 137.38-138.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st July 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,798-1,787 1,779 1,765-1,759
Silver-XAG 19.90 19.50-19.05 18.40
Crude Oil 103.30-102.20 101.05 99.90-97.30
EURO/USD 1.0440-1.0410 1.0390 1.0335-1.0290
GBP/USD 1.2100-1.2050 1.2010 1.1960-1.1930
USD/JPY 134.60 133.50 132.90-132.00

Intra-Day Strategy (1st July 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1824.92/oz and low of US$1802.66/oz. Gold down 0.582% at US$1807.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1800-1861 keeping stop loss closing above 1861, targeting 1798-1787-1779 and 1765-1758. Buy in between 1798-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1800-1821-1840 and 1851-1859-1870.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,798-1,787
S2     1,779
S3     1,765-1,759
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,807-1,820
R2     1,840
R3     1,851-1,859

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.024

Buy
20-DMA   1857.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1878.02

Buy
100-DMA   1875.88 Buy
200-DMA   1855.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$20.29/oz and low of US$20.20/oz settled down by 2.214% at US$20.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.70-19.60, targeting 21.20-21.80-22.05 and 22.50-23.05-23.95-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 21.20-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 20.60 and 20.00-19.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.90
S2     19.50-19.05
S3     18.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     20.45-20.70
R2     21.20
R3     21.80-22.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.731 Buy
20-DMA   22.45 Sell
50-DMA   22.10 Sell
100-DMA   22.75 Sell
200-DMA   23.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.815 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US109.06/bbl, intraday low of US$103.87/bbl and settled down by 3.41% to close at US$104.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 105.50-110.60 with stop loss at 110.60; targeting 103.30-102.20-101.05 and 99.90-97.30. Buy above 103.30-97.30 with risk daily closing below 97.30 and targeting 105.50-107.00-108.00 and 110.60-111.50-113.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.30-102.20
S2     101.05
S3     99.90-97.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     105.50-107.00
R2     108.00
R3     109.75-110.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.07 Sell
20-DMA   109.26 Buy
50-DMA   108.68 Buy
100-DMA   103.81 Buy
200-DMA   94.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.905 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0382/EUR, high of US$1.0488/EUR and settled the day down by 0.415% to close at US$1.0483/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0795, targeting 1.0390-1.0330 and 1.0290-1.0250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0795. Buy above 1.0440-1.0250 with risk below 1.0210, targeting 1.0550-1.0630-1.0690 and 1.0770-1.0840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0440-1.0410
S2     1.0390
S3     1.0335-1.0290

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0550-1.0630
R2     1.0690
R3     1.0770-1.0840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.443 Buy
20-DMA   1.0662 Buy
50-DMA   1.0720 Buy
100-DMA   1.0881 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.051 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2091/GBP, high of US$1.2187/GBP and settled the day up by 0.424% to close at US$1.2172/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2100-1.2010 with target 1.2200-1.2310-1.2420 and 1.2490-1.2575-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2010. Sell in between 1.2200-1.2630 with targets at 1.2190-1.2150-1.2100 and 1.2075-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2100-1.2050
S2     1.2010
S3     1.1960-1.1930

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2200-1.2310
R2     1.2390
R3     1.2450-1.2490

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.705

Buy
20-DMA   1.2268 Sell
50-DMA   1.2450 Sell
100-DMA   1.2709 Sell
200-DMA   1.3012 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.199 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY135.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.80/USD and settled the day down 0.628% at JPY135.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.00-139.70 with risk above 139.70 targeting 134.00 and 133.50-132.90-132.00. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 135.20-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     134.60
S2     133.50
S3     132.90-132.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     135.20-136.00
R2     137.00
R3     137.38-138.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.958 Buy
20-DMA   134.01 Buy
50-DMA   130.82 Buy
100-DMA   126.69 Buy
200-DMA   121.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.035 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1710 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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