AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia as hoisted by safety bids and expectations of further aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. At the same time, Fed policymakers “will just be laser-focused on high inflation, so they'll just keep on raising rates despite rising recession fears,” she added. Markets are worried about a potential energy supply crunch as the biggest single pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, has begun its annual maintenance on Monday, with flows expected to stop for 10 days. But markets are worried that Russia might extend the shutdown because of the war in Ukraine Investors are also looking to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for more clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. economy can cope with higher interest rates and reiterated his support for another interest rate hike this month. In Asia-Pacific, investors are concerned about another lockdown as multiple cities discovered cases of the highly infectious BA.5 omicron sub-variant.
  • The U.S. dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak versus major peers on Tuesday, hoisted by safety bids and expectations of further aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while the euro was pinned close to a 20-year low near parity to the greenback. The biggest single pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, began annual maintenance on Monday, with flows expected to stop for 10 days. Governments, markets and companies are worried Russia might extend the shutdown because of the war in Ukraine, exacerbating the continent's energy supply crunch and potentially speeding a recession. Euro weakness has been a big part of the dollar index's push higher, with the safe-haven U.S. currency also supported by worries about growth elsewhere too, with China in particular implementing strict zero-COVID policies to contain fresh outbreaks. Arguably the biggest factor in the dollar's rise, however, is the view the Fed will hike rates faster and further than peers. The Fed is expected to lift rates by 75 basis points for a second straight time at its July 26-27 meeting. Fed funds futures are pricing for its benchmark rates to rise to 3.50% by March, from 1.58% currently. Investors are keenly watching U.S. consumer price data due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the index to print an 8.8% annual rate for June. Elsewhere, the dollar edged 0.09% lower to 137.28 yen, following Monday's jump to a fresh 24-year high at 137.75.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, but moves were small as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen to its highest level in 20 years. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, gained on Wednesday morning. U.S. equities fell on Monday as investors look to monthly inflation data for more clues on U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike path, which is due on Wednesday. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. economy can cope with higher interest rates and reiterated his support for another interest rate hike this month. Elsewhere, Eurozone finance ministers said on Monday that the fight against inflation was the current priority although it might slow the economic growth.
  • Oil was down on Tuesday morning in Asia as demand concerns spurred as China discovered cases of highly infectious BA.5 omicron sub-variant. Several Chinese cities are adopting fresh COVID-19 curbs to rein in new infections as the country has detected highly infectious BA.5 subvariant cases. On the supply side, Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have disrupted crude and fuel supply. There have been curtailments of energy supply routes from Russia which concerns traders and utilities. Worries of a disruption at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s system (CPC) eased after a Russian court overturned the ruling earlier suspending operations at the pipeline for 30 days. The pipeline carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea, accounting for around 1% of the global crude supply. Most of the producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are pumping at maximum capacity and are running low on their spare capacity. However, U.S. President Joe Biden will make the case for greater oil production from OPEC when he meets the Gulf leader in Saudi Arabia this week, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday. “Saudi Arabia is not expected to add significant volumes in the near term, despite President Joe Biden's impending visit, as Riyadh will prioritize its commitment to market management and keeping spare capacity for emergency losses,” the Eurasia analysts said. Investors now await U.S. crude supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th July 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,732-1,741 1,750 1,759-1,765
Silver-XAG 19.50-19.80 20.45 20.70-21.20
Crude Oil 99.90-101.05 102.40 103.55-105.00
EURO/USD 1.0190-1.0250 1.0290-1.0335 1.0390-1.0430
GBP/USD 1.1930-1.2010 1.2050 1.2100-1.2200
USD/JPY 138.00-138.50 139.00 139.50-140.10

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th July 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,707 1,700 1,684-1,678
Silver-XAG 19.00-18.40 17.80 17.50-16.90
Crude Oil 98.90-98.00 96.90 96.00-94.65
EURO/USD 1.0010 0.9950-0.9860 0.9800
GBP/USD 1.1850 1.1800 1.1760-1.1700
USD/JPY 137.38-136.50 135.20 134.60-133.50

Intra-Day Strategy (12th July 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1744.40/oz and low of US$1731.22/oz. Gold down 0.475% at US$1733.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1731-1787 keeping stop loss closing above 1787, targeting 1720-1707-1700 and 1684-1678. Buy in between 1709-1670 with risk below 1670, targeting 1750-1759-1779 and 1787-1798.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,720-1,707
S2     1,700
S3     1,684-1,678
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,732-1,741
R2     1,750
R3     1,759-1,765

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.622

Buy
20-DMA   1787.96 Sell
50-DMA  

1825.45

Sell
100-DMA   1845.78 Sell
200-DMA   1844.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$19.36/oz and low of US$19.06/oz settled down by 0.958% at US$19.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 19.05-16.90, targeting 19.50-19.80-20.45 and 20.70-21.20- 21.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 20.45-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 19.80-19.50-19.05 and 18.40-17.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.00-18.40
S2     17.80
S3     17.50-16.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.50-19.80
R2     20.45
R3     20.70-21.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.130 Buy
20-DMA   20.72 Sell
50-DMA   21.65 Sell
100-DMA   22.45 Sell
200-DMA   23.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.615 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.642 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US102.56/bbl, intraday low of US$98.50/bbl and settled up by 0.892% to close at US$101.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 99.90-105.00 with stop loss at 105.00; targeting 98.90-98.00-96.90 and 96.00-94.65-93.20. Buy above 98.90-94.65 with risk daily closing below 94.65 and targeting 99.90-101.05-102.40 and 103.55-105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     98.90-98.00
S2     96.90
S3     96.00-94.65

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     99.90-101.05
R2     102.40
R3     103.55-105.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.328 Sell
20-DMA   106.09 Buy
50-DMA   107.40 Buy
100-DMA   103.53 Buy
200-DMA   94.65 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.905 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.311 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0033/EUR, high of US$1.0183/EUR and settled the day down by 1.395% to close at US$1.0039/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0100-1.0430, targeting 1.0010-0.9950 and 0.9860-0.9800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0430. Buy above 1.0010-0.9800 with risk below 0.9800, targeting 1.0100-1.0200-1.0250 and 1.0290-.0335-1.0390.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0010
S2     0.9950-0.9860
S3     0.9800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0190-1.0250
R2     1.0290-1.0335
R3     1.0390-1.0430

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.410 Buy
20-DMA   1.0340 Buy
50-DMA   1.0506 Buy
100-DMA   1.0700 Sell
200-DMA   1.0979 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.057 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0090 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1865/GBP, high of US$1.2036/GBP and settled the day down 0.939% to close at US$1.1888/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1850-1.1700 with target 1.1930-1.2010-1.2050 and 1.2100-1.2200-1.2310 with stop loss closing below 1.1700. Sell in between 1.1930-1.2230 with targets at 1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1700 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1760-1.1700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.2010
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2100-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.705

Buy
20-DMA   1.2268 Sell
50-DMA   1.2450 Sell
100-DMA   1.2709 Sell
200-DMA   1.3012 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.199 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY135.92/USD and made an intraday high of JPY137.74/USD and settled the day up 1.090% at JPY137.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 138.00-140.10 with risk above 140.10 targeting 137.38-136.50-135.20 and 134.60-134.00-133.50. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 137.90-138.50-139.00 and 139.50-140.10 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     137.38-136.50
S2     135.20
S3     134.60-133.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     138.00-138.50
R2     139.00
R3     139.50-140.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.258 Buy
20-DMA   135.37 Buy
50-DMA   132.45 Buy
100-DMA   128.25 Buy
200-DMA   122.85 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.083 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.308 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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