AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar resumed its relentless rise on Thursday, driven by both expectations for faster Federal Reserve policy tightening and safe-haven flows amid growing fears of a recession. The greenback charted new 24-year highs above 128 yen and edged back toward parity with the euro, after briefly breaching the level overnight. Singapore's dollar and the Philippine peso surged against their U.S. peer after their respective monetary authorities surprised by tightening policy in off-cycle moves. U.S. consumer price figures overnight showed inflation, already at four-decade highs, accelerating even further. Traders ramped up bets that the U.S. central bank could raise rates by 100 basis points when it meets on July 26-27. A hike of at least 75 basis points is seen as almost certain Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic added weight behind the speculation, saying the higher-than-expected inflation print puts a full-point increase on the table. The U.S. currency slid 0.5% to S$1.3969 after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy on Thursday outside of its scheduled meetings to combat soaring inflation. It had gotten some small respite overnight from data showing the British economy unexpectedly expanded in May.
  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, as U.S. red hot inflation data drove the expectations for more monetary tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Driven by both expectations for faster Federal Reserve policy tightening and safe-haven flows amid growing fears of a recession. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 9.1% in June year-on-year, a four-decade high. Investing.com predicted a reading of 8.8% while 8.6% was recorded in May. Investors speculated whether the 9.1% reading marks the peak Markets expected a historic one percentage-point Fed interest-rate hike later this month. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said “everything is in play” to combat price pressures. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg that the CPI report was uniformly bad and that the central bank will need to go well beyond the neutral level of rates. Other global central banks are delivering more monetary tightening to bring down the soaring commodity prices. In Asia Pacific, Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy on Thursday, sending the currency higher.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with expectations growing that the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike interest rates more aggressively this month to fight red-hot inflation. Data released overnight showed the U.S. consumer prices index jumped 9.1% in June, the highest in four decades. Expectations grew that the Fed could deliver a historic one percentage-point interest-rate hike later this month. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said “everything is in play” to combat price pressures.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent breaking above $100 a barrel, as investors weighed tight supplies against the prospect of a large U.S. rate hike that would stem inflation and curb crude demand. Oil prices have tumbled in the past two weeks on recession concerns despite a drop in crude and refined products exports from Russia amid Western sanctions and supply disruption in Libya. The U.S. Federal Reserve is seen ramping up its battle with 40-year high inflation with a supersized 100 basis points rate hike this month after a grim inflation report showed price pressures accelerating. The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar surprise move by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Investors also flocked to the dollar, often seen as a safe haven asset. The dollar index hit a 20-year high on Wednesday, which makes oil purchases more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Worries of COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in new cases of a highly infectious subvariant has also kept a lid on oil prices. China's daily crude oil imports in June sank to their lowest since July 2018, as refiners anticipated lockdown measures to curb demand, customs data showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden will on Friday fly to Saudi Arabia, where he will attend a summit of Gulf allies and call for those allies to pump more oil.However, spare capacity at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is running low with most of the producers pumping at maximum capacity and doubt exists as to how much extra Saudi Arabia can bring into the market quickly.Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also point to slackening demand with product supplied slumping to 18.7 million barrels per day, its lowest since June 2021. Crude inventories rose, bolstered by another big release from strategic reserves.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th July 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,732-1,741 1,750 1,759-1,765
Silver-XAG 19.50-19.80 20.45 20.70-21.20
Crude Oil 94.00-94.65 96.00 96.90-98.00
EURO/USD 1.0190-1.0250 1.0290-1.0335 1.0390-1.0430
GBP/USD 1.1930-1.2010 1.2050 1.2100-1.2200
USD/JPY 139.00-139.50 140.10 141.00-141.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th July 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,707 1,700 1,684-1,678
Silver-XAG 19.00-18.40 17.80 17.50-16.90
Crude Oil 93.10-92.30 91.15 90.50-89.00
EURO/USD 1.0010 0.9950-0.9860 0.9800
GBP/USD 1.1830-1.1790 1.1760 1.1700-1.1660
USD/JPY 138.50-138.00 137.00 136.50-135.20

Intra-Day Strategy (14th July 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1745.35/oz and low of US$1707.18/oz. Gold up 0.549% at US$1735.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1731-1787 keeping stop loss closing above 1787, targeting 1720-1707-1700 and 1684-1678. Buy in between 1709-1670 with risk below 1670, targeting 1750-1759-1779 and 1787-1798.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,720-1,707
S2     1,700
S3     1,684-1,678
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,732-1,741
R2     1,750
R3     1,759-1,765

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.622

Buy
20-DMA   1787.96 Sell
50-DMA  

1825.45

Sell
100-DMA   1845.78 Sell
200-DMA   1844.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$19.40/oz and low of US$18.85/oz settled up by 1.546% at US$19.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 19.05-16.90, targeting 19.50-19.80-20.45 and 20.70-21.20- 21.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 20.45-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 19.80-19.50-19.05 and 18.40-17.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.00-18.40
S2     17.80
S3     17.50-16.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.50-19.80
R2     20.45
R3     20.70-21.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.130 Buy
20-DMA   20.72 Sell
50-DMA   21.65 Sell
100-DMA   22.45 Sell
200-DMA   23.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.615 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.642 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US95.57/bbl, intraday low of US$91.34/bbl and settled up by 0.751% to close at US$94.16/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 94.65-98.90 with stop loss at 98.90; targeting 94.30-93.20-92.30 and 91.15-90.50. Buy above 94.00-93.10 with risk daily closing below 93.10 and targeting 94.65-96.00-96.90 and 98.00-98.90-99.90

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     93.10-92.30
S2     91.15
S3     90.50-89.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     94.00-94.65
R2     96.00
R3     96.90-98.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.201 Sell
20-DMA   102.48 Buy
50-DMA   105.58 Buy
100-DMA   102.95 Buy
200-DMA   94.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.412 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.213 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$0.9997/EUR, high of US$1.1021/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0429% to close at US$1.0057/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0100-1.0430, targeting 1.0010-0.9950 and 0.9860-0.9800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0430. Buy above 1.0010-0.9800 with risk below 0.9800, targeting 1.0100-1.0200-1.0250 and 1.0290-.0335-1.0390.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0010
S2     0.9950-0.9860
S3     0.9800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0190-1.0250
R2     1.0290-1.0335
R3     1.0390-1.0430

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.410 Buy
20-DMA   1.0340 Buy
50-DMA   1.0506 Buy
100-DMA   1.0700 Sell
200-DMA   1.0979 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.057 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0090 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1826/GBP, high of US$1.1967/GBP and settled the day down 0.0294% to close at US$1.1888/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1850-1.1700 with target 1.1930-1.2010-1.2050 and 1.2100-1.2200-1.2310 with stop loss closing below 1.1700. Sell in between 1.1930-1.2230 with targets at 1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1700 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1830-1.1790
S2     1.1760
S3     1.1700-1.1660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.2010
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2100-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.705

Buy
20-DMA   1.2268 Sell
50-DMA   1.2450 Sell
100-DMA   1.2709 Sell
200-DMA   1.3012 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.199 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY136.68/USD and made an intraday high of JPY137.86/USD and settled the day up by 0.293% at JPY137.26/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 138.00-140.10 with risk above 140.10 targeting 137.38-136.50-135.20 and 134.60-134.00-133.50. Long positions above 135.20-130.60 with targets of 137.90-138.50-139.00 and 139.50-140.10 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     138.50-138.00
S2     137.00
S3     136.50-135.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     139.00-139.50
R2     140.10
R3     141.00-141.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.258 Buy
20-DMA   135.37 Buy
50-DMA   132.45 Buy
100-DMA   128.25 Buy
200-DMA   122.85 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.083 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.308 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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