AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hovered below a near two-decade high in Asian trading on Friday, having slipped overnight after two Federal Reserve policymakers said they favoured a smaller rate rise than the 100 basis points (bps) that investors were betting on. Traders had ramped up bets that the Fed would go for a super-sized tightening at their July 26-27 meeting after data on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation racing at the fastest pace in four decades. But those bets were pared after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard both said they favoured another 75 bps hike for this month, in spite of the inflation figures. Fed funds futures currently indicate a 36% chance of a 100 bps increase, down from around 70% before the comments. Even with the pullback, the dollar index is on track for a third winning week, up 1.58% from last Friday on both bets for an increasingly aggressive Fed and as worries about a resulting recession fuelled demand for the currency as a safe haven. Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 138.98, keeping it on track for a 2.1% gain this week. It touched 139.38 overnight for the first time since September 1998 as U.S. Treasury yields widened the gap to their Japanese counterparts. The Bank of Japan has been steadfast in its commitment to ultra-easy policy to support the tepid economy, and is widely seen keeping stimulus settings steady at a meeting next week. The single currency dipped as low as $0.9952 after Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to resign, but that was rejected by the country's president. The euro zone is struggling with a worsening energy crisis as Russia shut down a gas pipeline for regular week-long maintenance, leaving markets jittery about whether it will come back online, with Russia saying it will depend on demand and sanctions. Despite the uncertainty, the European Central Bank is likely to stick the quarter-point rate increase it has flagged for next week, but the outlook trails well behind the Fed, supporting the dollar's strength versus the euro. Meanwhile, sterling trod water at $1.18265, after slumping to a 28-month low of $1.1761 overnight. It is down 1.71% since last Friday, heading for its worst week since early May as political turmoil casts a shadow over the currency. China's yuan touched a two-month low against the dollar and looked set for its biggest weekly drop since May as the weak data raised doubts about this year's economic growth target. The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia. Investors’ expectations of a huge interest rate hike in July receded.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.03% to 108.57 by 12:41 AM ET (0441 GMT). The dollar index is on track for a third winning week, up 1.58% from last Friday. The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.08% to 139.01. The Bank of Japan has been committed to an ultra-easy policy to support the economy. The European Central Bank is likely to stick to its quarter-point rate increase. Investors have raised bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would deliver a super-sized interest rate hike at their July meeting on 26-27 after Wednesday showed June inflation hit a 40-year high. However, bets were pared as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard both said they backed another 75 basis-point hikes for this month, despite the inflation figures. In Asia-Pacific, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of the 2022 year on year as the second largest economy imposed stringent COVID-19 curbs in the second quarter.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday amid prospects of a less aggressive U.S. rate hike, although worries about a recovery in demand capped gains. The Fed's most hawkish policymakers said on Thursday they favoured another 75-basis-point interest rate increase at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting this month, not the bigger rate raise that traders had raced to price in after a report on Wednesday showed inflation was accelerating. The rate hike uncertainty and weak economic data pushed both oil contracts to lows on Thursday that were below the close on Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls "a special military operation". Still, both Brent and WTI had clawed back nearly all losses by the end of the trading session. However, concerns about the outlook for demand continue to keep a lid on oil prices. China's refinery throughput in June shrank nearly 10% from a year earlier, with output for the first half of the year down 6% in the first annual decline for the period since at least 2011, data showed on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden will on Friday fly to Saudi Arabia, where he will attend a summit of Gulf allies and call for them to pump more oil. However, spare capacity at members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is running low, with most producers pumping at maximum capacity, and it is unclear how much extra Saudi Arabia can bring into the market quickly.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th July 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,732 1,741 1,750-1,759
Silver-XAG 19.50-19.80 20.45 20.70-21.20
Crude Oil 94.00-94.65 96.00 96.90-98.00
EURO/USD 1.0190-1.0250 1.0290-1.0335 1.0390-1.0430
GBP/USD 1.1930-1.2010 1.2050 1.2100-1.2200
USD/JPY 139.00-139.50 140.10 141.00-141.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th July 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,707 1,700 1,684-1,678
Silver-XAG 19.00-18.40 17.80 17.50-16.90
Crude Oil 93.10-92.30 91.15 90.50-89.00
EURO/USD 1.0010 0.9950-0.9860 0.9800
GBP/USD 1.1810-1.1760 1.1700 1.1660-1.1600
USD/JPY 138.50-138.00 137.00 136.50-135.20

Intra-Day Strategy (15th July 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1736.19/oz and low of US$1697.55/oz. Gold down 1.471% at US$1709.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1720-1787 keeping stop loss closing above 1787, targeting 1707-1700 and 1684-1678. Buy in between 1709-1670 with risk below 1670, targeting 1750-1759-1779 and 1787-1798.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,707
S2     1,700
S3     1,684-1,678
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,720-1,732
R2     1,741
R3     1,750-1,759

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.622

Buy
20-DMA   1787.96 Sell
50-DMA  

1825.45

Sell
100-DMA   1845.78 Sell
200-DMA   1844.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.367 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.400 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$19.22/oz and low of US$18.13/oz settled down by 4.192% at US$18.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 19.05-16.90, targeting 19.50-19.80-20.45 and 20.70-21.20- 21.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 19.50. Sell in between 20.45-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 19.80-19.50-19.05 and 18.40-17.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.00-18.40
S2     17.80
S3     17.50-16.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.50-19.80
R2     20.45
R3     20.70-21.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.130 Buy
20-DMA   20.72 Sell
50-DMA   21.65 Sell
100-DMA   22.45 Sell
200-DMA   23.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.615 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.642 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US94.56/bbl, intraday low of US$88.30/bbl and settled up by 0.387% to close at US$93.60/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 94.65-98.90 with stop loss at 98.90; targeting 94.30-93.20-92.30 and 91.15-90.50. Buy above 93.10-89.00 with risk daily closing below 89.00 and targeting 94.65-96.00-96.90 and 98.00-98.90-99.90

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     93.10-92.30
S2     91.15
S3     90.50-89.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     94.00-94.65
R2     96.00
R3     96.90-98.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.201 Sell
20-DMA   102.48 Buy
50-DMA   105.58 Buy
100-DMA   102.95 Buy
200-DMA   94.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.412 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.213 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$0.9997/EUR, high of US$1.10821/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0429% to close at US$1.0057/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0100-1.0430, targeting 1.0010-0.9950 and 0.9860-0.9800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0430. Buy above 1.0010-0.9800 with risk below 0.9800, targeting 1.0100-1.0200-1.0250 and 1.0290-.0335-1.0390.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0010
S2     0.9950-0.9860
S3     0.9800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0190-1.0250
R2     1.0290-1.0335
R3     1.0390-1.0430

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.410 Buy
20-DMA   1.0340 Buy
50-DMA   1.0506 Buy
100-DMA   1.0700 Sell
200-DMA   1.0979 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.057 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0090 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1759/GBP, high of US$1.1893/GBP and settled the day down 0.387% to close at US$1.1820/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1850-1.1700 with target 1.1930-1.2010-1.2050 and 1.2100-1.2200-1.2310 with stop loss closing below 1.1700. Sell in between 1.1930-1.2230 with targets at 1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1700 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1810-1.1760
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.2010
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2100-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.705

Buy
20-DMA   1.2268 Sell
50-DMA   1.2450 Sell
100-DMA   1.2709 Sell
200-DMA   1.3012 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.199 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.008 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY136.68/USD and made an intraday high of JPY139.38/USD and settled the day up by 1.218% at JPY137.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 139.00-141.50 with risk above 141.50 targeting 138.50-137.38-136.50 and 135.20-134.60-134.00. Long positions above 138.20-130.60 with targets of 39.00-139.50-140.10 and 141.00-141.50 with stop below 124.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     138.50-138.00
S2     137.00
S3     136.50-135.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     139.00-139.50
R2     140.10
R3     141.00-141.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.258 Buy
20-DMA   135.37 Buy
50-DMA   132.45 Buy
100-DMA   128.25 Buy
200-DMA   122.85 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.083 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.308 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING