Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar moved slightly lower on Wednesday, as traders gear up for a crucial Federal Reserve policy decision scheduled for later in the day. Investors are waiting to see the extent the U.S. central bank will go to combat inflation, as concerns remain that aggressive Fed rate hikes will instead weigh on growth. Policymakers are mulling over consumer prices running at 40-year highs, along with a recent batch of weak economic data. On Tuesday, U.S. consumer confidence tumbled to its lowest mark in almost a year and a half, while new home price growth and sales of new houses both slowed. Markets have largely priced in a 75 basis point increase, with only a small chance of a jumbo 100 basis point raise. Focus will turn as well to comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to speak at a news conference at 1830 GMT on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the euro recovered some ground versus the dollar after it declined by 1% overnight to $1.0108 - the sharpest fall since July 11. The common currency rose by 0.19% to $1.0137 in early morning European trading. Weighing on sentiment around the euro are fears that broader European economic activity may be hit by a reduction in Russian gas supplies. Westward flows out of the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline dropped on Tuesday and are expected to fall further on Wednesday. The pound firmed marginally against the dollar, with another key rate decision expected from the Bank of England due out next week. The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia ahead of an expected U.S. interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD jumped 0.37% to 1.0151. Europe’s growth remains vulnerable to Russian gas supplies, as flows along the Nord Stream pipe from Russia to Germany fell on Tuesday and will drop further on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank’s moves to tame inflation would cement a combined 150 basis points increase over June and July, the steepest hike since the 1980s. He expects the U.S. dollar to remain supported by safe haven flows over the longer term, amid a darkening global outlook. U.S. Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped to 95.7, a near two-year low in July amid persistent worries about soaring inflation and higher rates.
• Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia ahead of the policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. equities fell on Tuesday ahead of an expected interest rate hike decision from the Fed as investors were concerned about the slowing economy with signs of energy woes in Europe. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. The International Monetary Fund warned the world economy may soon be on the cusp of an outright recession. Monetary tightening, Europe’s energy shortages over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s property sector, and COVID curbs remain the headwinds to the global economic rebound. U.S. Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped to 95.7, a near two-year low in July amid persistent worries about soaring inflation and higher rates.
• Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as concerns about weaker demand offset industry data that showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. After Tuesday's settlement, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks in the United States fell by 4 million barrels last week. That was four times bigger than the decline expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. In addition, the prospect the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce an aggressive rate rise later on Wednesday weighed on sentiment and limited the rise in oil prices, he said. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75-basis-points later on Wednesday, underlining concern about the outlook for U.S. demand and the prospect of a stronger dollar, which would make dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies The Biden administration said on Tuesday it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a previously announced plan to tap the facility to calm oil prices boosted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a recovery in demand following the COVID-19 pandemic. The administration said in late March it would release a record 1 million barrels of oil per day for six months from the SPR. The United States has already sold 125 million barrels from the reserve with nearly 70 million barrels delivered to purchasers.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1728.06/oz and low of US$1713.54/oz. Gold down 0.123% at US$1717.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1732-1787 keeping stop loss closing above 1787, targeting 1707-1700-1684 and 1676-1665-1658. Buy in between 1707-1644 with risk below 1644, targeting 1732-1741-1750 and 1760-1774.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$18.72/oz and low of US$18.37/oz settled up by 1.102% at US$18.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 18.60-16.90, targeting 18.90-19.50-19.80 and 20.45-20.70-21.20 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 16.90. Sell in between 18.90-23.75 with stop loss above 23.75; targeting 18.40-17.90-17.50 and 16.90-16.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US98.22/bbl, intraday low of US$94.10/bbl and settled down by 0.865% to close at US$94.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode 0will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 94.90-104.70 with stop loss at 104.70; targeting 94.30-93.20-92.30 and 91.30-90.80-90.10. Buy above 94.90-90.30 with risk daily closing below 90.30 and targeting 94.90-96.00-96.90 and 98.00-98.90-99.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0107/EUR, high of US$1.0249/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0744% to close at US$1.0114/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0290-1.0430, targeting 1.0190-1.0010 and 0.9950-0.9860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0430. Buy above 1.0190-0.9800 with risk below 0.9800, targeting 1.0290-1.0335-1.0390 and 1.0430-1.0470.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1963/GBP, high of US$1.2089/GBP and settled the day down 0.144% to close at US$1.2020/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is become immediate resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.12010-1.1700 with target 1.2050-1.2100-1.2200 and 1.2245-1.2310 with stop loss closing below 1.1700. Sell in between 1.12050-1.2230 with targets at 1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1700 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesay made intra‐day low of JPY136.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.96/USD and settled the day up by 0.115% at JPY136.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 137.00-141.50 with risk above 141.50 targeting 136.50 and 135.20-134.60-134.00. Long positions above 136.30-130.60 with targets of 137.00-137.40-137.90 and 139.00-139.40-140.10 with stop below 130.60.