AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hovered near a two-decade high hit in the previous session on Thursday as investors looked for fresh insight on the global monetary tightening path from a European Central Bank rate decision and comments from the head of the Federal Reserve. Sterling weakened 0.25% to $1.1506, heading back toward the previous day's 37-year low of $1.1407. The ECB is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points (bps) later on Thursday (1215 GMT) to fight runaway inflation, although Europe's energy crisis has kept the euro under pressure. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion at a Cato Institute conference, with Fed officials soon due to enter into a blackout period prior to the U.S. central bank's Sept. 20-21 meeting. Recent rhetoric has continued to be hawkish overall. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said overnight that bringing inflation back down to 2% is the Fed's "Job One," while Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said tight monetary policy will continue "for as long as it takes to get inflation down." Money markets lay 79% odds that the Fed will hike by another 75 basis points at this month's meeting, which would increase the fed funds rate to 3.0% to 3.25%. The yen has been a particular victim of recent dollar strength, partly due to its sensitivity to rising long-term U.S. yields as hawkish Fed bets ramped up. It tumbled more than 3% over the past two sessions to take it to its trough just shy of 145 yen per dollar, leading Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno to say that the government would like to take necessary steps if "rapid, one-sided" moves in currency markets continue.
  • Gold prices steadied above $1,700 on Thursday as a pause in the recent dollar rally took some pressure off bullion prices, with focus turning to an upcoming European Central Bank meeting for more cues. The dollar retreated further from 20-year highs on Thursday, with investors awaiting an interest rate hike by the ECB later in the day. The central bank is expected to turn interest rates positive for the first time in 11 years with a 50-basis point hike, as it struggles to combat heightened inflation and a battered euro. The rate hike is expected to support the euro and take more wind out of the dollar’s sails - a move that could be positive for gold prices. Strength in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weighed heavily on gold prices over the past month, as strong U.S. economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve drove up expectations of more sharp interest rate hikes by the central bank. Bullion prices have tumbled from 2022 highs as the Fed began hiking rates this year. This has seen returns on gold fall behind inflation, questioning the yellow metal's viability as an inflation hedge. Among industrial metals, copper prices were muted after falling in the prior session, amid growing concerns over slowing activity in major importer China. While Chinese trade data showed the country continued to increase copper imports in August, investors fear that this trend could reverse as economic activity deteriorates further. China’s overall trade balance was significantly below expectations in August, marred by a drop in imports and exports.
  • Oil prices rose by as much as $1 per barrel on Thursday after dropping below key technical support levels in the previous session, as an energy standoff between Europe and Russia focused investor minds on how tight fuel supply may become. Prices drew support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to halt the country's oil and gas exports if price caps are imposed by European buyers. The European Union proposed capping Russian gas prices only hours later, raising the risk of rationing in some of the world's richest countries this winter if Moscow carries out its threat. Russia's Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) has already halted flows from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, cutting off a substantial percentage of supply to Europe. The oil price trend is being shaped by "various external forces such as the energy battle between Western countries and Russia," said analysts from Haitong Futures in a note. The potential impact of any deal or reinstating an accord between the West and Iran on Tehran's nuclear programme would also be significant, they noted. An agreement would see sanctions on Iranian oil exports lifted. Elsewhere, reacting to soaring energy prices, Britain's new Prime Minister Liz Truss will on Thursday scrap the country's fracking ban and will seek to make more use of its reserves in the North Sea, the Telegraph newspaper reported earlier. The British government is expected to announce dozens of new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences in an effort to boost domestic production, two sources familiar with the government's discussions told Reuters. Meanwhile a number of central banks around the world are expected to begin a new round of interest rate hikes to fight inflation. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates sharply when it meets later on Thursday. A U.S. Federal Reserve meeting follows on Sept. 21.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th September 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,721-1,732 1,740-1,751 1,760-1,774
Silver-XAG 18.40-18.90 19.50-19.80 20.00-20.70
Crude Oil 83.00-84.00 85.10 86.50-87.20
EURO/USD 0.9995-1.0030 1.0090-1.0150 1.0190-1.0280
GBP/USD 1.1540-1.1600 1.1655-1.1765 1.1850-1.1900
USD/JPY 144.60-145.30 146.00 146.70-147.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th September 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700-1,690 1,679 1,670-1,664
Silver-XAG 17.80-17.40 17.00 16.50-16.00
Crude Oil 82.10-81.35 80.00 79.85-79.00
EURO/USD 0.9910 0.9850 0.9850
GBP/USD 1.1460-1.1380 1.1350 1.1295-1.1250
USD/JPY 143.10 142.50-142.00 141.40-140.70

Intra-Day Strategy (8th September 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1719.35/oz and low of $1691.34/oz. Gold is up by 0.963% at US$1718.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1727-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1700-1690-1679 and 1671-1664. Buy in between 1705-1664 with risk below 1664, targeting 1718-1732-1740 and 1760-1774-1785.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700-1,690
S2     1,679
S3     1,670-1,664
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,721-1,732
R2     1,740-1,751
R3     1,760-1,774

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.505

Buy
20-DMA   1732.37 Sell
50-DMA  

1756.43

Sell
100-DMA   1787.15 Sell
200-DMA   1809.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   63.546 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.794 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$18.46/oz and low of US17.83/oz settled up by 2.523% at US$18.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 18.20-16.00, targeting 18.40-18.90-19.50 and 20.45-20.70-21.45 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 16.90. Sell in between 18.60-20.75 with stop loss above 20.75; targeting 17.70-17.50-16.90 and 16.40-.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.80-17.40
S2     17.00
S3     16.50-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.40-18.90
R2     19.50-19.80
R3     20.00-20.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.000 Buy
20-DMA   19.11 Buy
50-DMA   19.76 Sell
100-DMA   20.71 Sell
200-DMA   21.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.746 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.448 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$87.41/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.28/bbl, and settled down by 6.14% to close at US$81.48/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 86.50-92.40 with stop loss at 92.40; targeting 85.10-84.00-83.00 and 82.10-81.35. Buy above 85.10-81.10 with risk daily closing below 81.10; targeting 86.50-87.20-88.00 and 89.40-90.50-93.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     82.10-81.35
S2     80.00
S3     79.85-79.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     83.00-84.00
R2     85.10
R3     86.50-87.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.427 Sell
20-DMA   88.90 Sell
50-DMA   93.37 Sell
100-DMA   96.34 Sell
200-DMA   93.64 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.932 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.163 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$0.9875/EUR, a high of US$1.0010/EUR, and settled the day down by % to close at US$1.0004/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 0.9995-1.0430, targeting 0.9950-0.9900-0.9860-0.9790 and 0.9700-0.9640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0430. Buy above 0.9950-0.9640 with risk below 0.9640, targeting 1.0030-1.0090 and 1.0150-1.0190-1.0290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     0.9910
S2     0.9850
S3     0.9850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     0.9995-1.0030
R2     1.0090-1.0150
R3     1.0190-1.0280

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.295 Buy
20-DMA   1.0040 Buy
50-DMA   1.0174 Sell
100-DMA   1.0377 Sell
200-DMA   1.0699 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.104 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1404/GBP, a high of US$1.1539/GBP, and settled the day up 0.0946% to close at US$1.1527/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing leading movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1600-1.1350 with a target of 1.1670-1.1760-1.1850 and 1.1890-1.1930-1.2060 with stop loss closing below 1.1480. Sell in between 1.1695-1.2010 with targets at 1.1695-1.1600-1.1540 and 1.1480-1.1410-1.1350 with stop loss should be 1.2630.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460-1.1380
S2     1.1350
S3     1.1295-1.1250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1540-1.1600
R2     1.1655-1.1765
R3     1.1850-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

25.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.1712 Sell
50-DMA   1.1924 Sell
100-DMA   1.2193 Sell
200-DMA   1.2583 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.270 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0146 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY142.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY144.98/USD and settled the day up by 0.0249% at JPY143.721/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.40-147.50 with risk above 147.50 targeting 144.00-143.10-142.50 and 142.00-141.40-140.70. Long positions above 143.10-140.70 with targets of 144.60-145.30-146.000 and 146.70-147.50 with stops below 128.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     143.10
S2     142.50-142.00
S3     141.40-140.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     144.60-145.30
R2     146.00
R3     146.70-147.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.99 Buy
20-DMA   139.04 Buy
50-DMA   136.62 Buy
100-DMA   133.29 Buy
200-DMA   127.67 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.298 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0765 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING