AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies on Friday after U.S. data showing employers hired more workers than expected in September, suggesting the Federal Reserve will likely stick to its aggressive tightening policy for now. The dollar reversed early losses against the Japanese yen and was last up 0.2% at 145.42 yen. The dollar hit a 24-year peak of 145.90 yen last month, which had prompted an intervention by Japanese authorities to shore up the fragile yen. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report. Data for August was unrevised to show 315,000 jobs added as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 250,000 job gains, with estimates ranging from as low as 127,000 to as high as 375,000. Overnight, a number of Fed officials reinforced the view that the central bank is nowhere near finished with raising rates as it seeks to tame inflation, and interest rates are expected to go up further. U.S. inflation data, due next week, will be watched closely as well and could prove influential in setting investors' expectations for the Fed, according to strategists. The U.S. central bank, in an effort to tame inflation, has hiked its policy rate from near-zero at the beginning of this year to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%, and last month signaled more large increases were on the way this year. A U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies was last up 0.6% and hit its highest in a week. The index is up about 18% for the year so far. Sterling was down 0.9% at $1.1060, having fallen 1.4% overnight. It jumped earlier this week, after the British government reversed a planned cut to the highest rate of income tax.
  • Asian stocks fell sharply on Monday, with Chinese chipmakers leading declines on new U.S. trade curbs, while broader sentiment was dented by fears of more hawkish measures from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. move threatens to worsen trade ties between the two largest economies in the world, and could have deeper economic implications if China retaliates. Sentiment towards China was also worsened by data over the weekend showing the country’s services sector unexpectedly shrank in September, amid continued COVID-related disruptions. A recent resurgence in infections has also raised concerns over more lockdowns. Focus this week is also on the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which is expected to outline government policies for the next five years. Regional stocks took a weak lead-in from Wall Street, which plummeted on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data gave the Federal Reserve little reason to soften its hawkish tone. Focus this week is also on U.S. CPI inflation data for September, due on Thursday. The reading, which is expected to show that inflation remained hot through last month, will also factor into the Fed’s stance on interest rates. Markets are pricing in an over 80% chance the central bank will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. Rising U.S. interest rates have been the biggest headwind to Asian markets this year, and are likely to keep markets depressed for the near-term.
  • Oil prices slipped on Monday, easing off five-week highs, as the market took profits following strong gains last week on expectations of tighter supplies following OPEC+ cuts and ahead of the European Union embargo on Russian oil. Both contracts touched their highest since Aug. 30 earlier in the session but gave up gains, slipping along with stocks in Asia amid thin trade with Japan and South Korea closed for public holidays. Brent and WTI posted their biggest percentage gains since March last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. The OPEC+ production cuts, which come ahead of a European Union embargo on Russian oil, will squeeze supply in an already tight market. EU sanctions on Russian crude and oil products will take effect in December and February, respectively. Analysts at banks and brokerages have raised their crude price forecasts and expect Brent to rise above $100 a barrel in the coming months. A possible loosening up of COVID-19 curbs in China in the fourth quarter and in 2023, could set oil demand on recovery and offer further upside to oil prices, CMC's Teng said. Oil production at the Sakhalin-1 project fell to just 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July from 220,000 bpd before Russia invaded Ukraine. il prices jumped about 4% to a five-week high on Friday, lifted again by an OPEC+ decision this week to make its largest supply cut since 2020 despite concern about a possible recession and rising interest rates. Oil rallied for the fifth day in a row even as the dollar moved higher after data showing the U.S. economy was creating jobs at a strong pace gave the Federal Reserve a reason to continue hefty interest rate hikes. strong greenback can pressure oil demand, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for other currency holders. That was the highest close for Brent and WTI since Aug. 30. The price jump pushed both benchmarks into technically overbought territory for the first time since August for Brent and June for WTI. Both contracts posted their second straight weekly gains, and their biggest weekly percentage gains since March this week, with Brent was up about 11% and WTI 17% higher. U.S. heating oil futures jumped 19% this week to their highest close since June, boosting the heating oil crack spread - a measure of refining profit margins - to its highest close on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to December 2009. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed this week to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. The OPEC+ cut comes ahead of a European Union embargo on Russian oil and will squeeze supply in an already tight market. OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said the output target cuts will leave OPEC+ with more supply to tap in the event of any crises. However, the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future production, fell by two this week to 602, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co, as high inflation forces producers to spend more money to secure workers and equipment.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th October 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,700-1,714 1,731-1,740 1,752-1,760
Silver-XAG 20.60-21.30 21.90-22.55 23.00-23.40
Crude Oil 92.50-93.20 94.00 95.40-96.70
EURO/USD 0.9740-0.9800 0.9860-0.9910 0.9995-1.0105
GBP/USD 1.1260-1.1295 1.1450-1.1500 1.1560-1.1640
USD/JPY 145.30-145.95 146.90 147.50-148.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th October 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,690 1,679-1,670 1,660-1,651
Silver-XAG 20.10-19.60 18.90 18.00-17.80
Crude Oil 92.10-91.30 89.40-88.50 .87.90-86.00
EURO/USD 0.9700-0.9610 0.9530 0.9440-0.9400
GBP/USD 1.1150-1.1100 1.0995 1.0910-1.0860
USD/JPY 144.00–143.10 142.00 141.40-140.70

Intra-Day Strategy (10th October 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1714.77/oz and low of $1690.61/oz. Gold is down by 1.03% at US$1694.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1714-1760 keeping stop loss closing above 1760, targeting 1700-1690-1681 and 1660-1651-1640. Buy in between 1700-1660 with risk below 1590, targeting 1714-1732-1740 and 1751-1760.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,690
S2     1,679-1,670
S3     1,660-1,651
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,700-1,714
R2     1,731-1,740
R3     1,752-1,760

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.702

Buy
20-DMA   1681.64 Sell
50-DMA  

1713.45

Sell
100-DMA   1752.79 Sell
200-DMA   1787.43 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.820 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -21.943 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$20.82/oz and low of US19.99/oz settled down by 2.532% at US$20.12/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.10-17.80, targeting 20.60-21.45-22.00-22.55 and 23.00-23.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 17.80. Sell in between 20.60-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 20.20-19.60 and 18.00-17.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     20.10-19.60
S2     18.90
S3     18.00-17.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     20.60-21.30
R2     21.90-22.55
R3     23.00-23.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.436 Buy
20-DMA   19.33 Buy
50-DMA   19.43 Sell
100-DMA   20.14 Sell
200-DMA   21.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.734 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.053 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$92.327/bbl, an intraday low of US$87.345/bbl, and settled up by 4.17% to close at US$92.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 93.10-96.70 with stop loss at 96.70; targeting 92.10-91.30-89.40 and 88.50-87.90-86.00. Buy above 92.10-86.00 with risk daily closing below 86.00; targeting 93.10-94.00-95.40 and 96.70-97.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     92.10-91.30
S2     89.40-88.50
S3     .87.90-86.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     92.50-93.20
R2     94.00
R3     95.40-96.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.2149 Sell
20-DMA   84.98 Sell
50-DMA   88.09 Sell
100-DMA   92.12 Sell
200-DMA   91.82 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   98.344 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1820 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$0.9725/EUR, a high of US$0.9816/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.565% to close at US$0.9734/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 0.9740-1.0105, targeting 0.9740-0.9610-0.9550 and 0.9440-0.9400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0105. Buy above 0.9700-0.9390 with risk below 0.9390, targeting 0.9740-0.9800-0.9910 and 0.9995-1.0105.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     0.9700-0.9610
S2     0.9530
S3     0.9440-0.9400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     0.9740-0.9800
R2     0.9860-0.9910
R3     0.9995-1.0105

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.3857 Buy
20-DMA   0.9852 Sell
50-DMA   0.9980 Sell
100-DMA   1.0184 Sell
200-DMA   1.0524 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   34.552 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1054/GBP, a high of US$1.1224/GBP, and settled the day down 0.658% to close at US$1.1084/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1150-1.0640 with a target of 1.1260-1.1360 and 1.1390-1.1450 with stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1260-1.1410 with targets at 1.0995-1.0910-1.0800 and 1.0710-1.0640-1.0590 with stop loss should be 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1150-1.1100
S2     1.0995
S3     1.0910-1.0860

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1260-1.1295
R2     1.1450-1.1500
R3     1.1560-1.1640

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.164

Buy
20-DMA   1.1255 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1927 Sell
200-DMA   1.2383 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.829 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY144.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY145.43/USD and settled the day up by 0.137% at JPY145.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.30-148.90 with risk above 148.90 targeting 144.70-143.10-142.00 and 141.40-140.70-139.95. Long positions above 144.70-139.70 with targets of 143.10-144.60-145.30 and 146.70-147.50 with stops below 139.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     144.00–143.10
S2     142.00
S3     141.40-140.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     145.30-145.95
R2     146.90
R3     147.50-148.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.493 Buy
20-DMA   142.04 Buy
50-DMA   138.95 Buy
100-DMA   135.17 Buy
200-DMA   129.19 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   73.647 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.987 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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