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Daily Market Lookup

  • Suspected Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention gave only brief respite to the Japanese yen as the dollar stayed strong on Monday, while sterling wavered as former finance minister Rishi Sunak emerged as frontrunner to become Britain's prime minister. The yen hit a low of 149.70 per dollar in early deals before being swept to a high of 145.28 within minutes in a move that suggested the BOJ, acting for Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), had stepped in for a second successive day. The currency, however, dropped back to near 148.88. Stocks rallied and U.S. yields fell on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported Federal Reserve officials will likely debate the size of future hikes, fuelling hopes that a Fed pivot might be near. Japan had also intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday, buying yen in the second confirmed instance in a month after the currency hit a 32-year low near 152 to the dollar, policy sources said. That triggered a rally of more than 7 yen for the Japanese currency to 144.50 per dollar. Damien Boey, chief macro strategist at Sydney-based investment firm Barrenjoey, said the Japanese yen was still not close to fair value. Traders also suspect the BOJ has stepped in on other occasions in the past month to shore up a currency that has tumbled 22% this year against the dollar. Referring to how Japan had a classic open economy 'trilemma' forcing it to intervene in both bond and currency markets concurrently, Goldman analysts said: "While sub-optimal and unsustainable in the medium term, we think this policy mix could be in place for some time." Sterling also see-sawed on news former prime minister Boris Johnson had dropped out of running for British prime minister and was last up 0.2% at $1.1320, trimming earlier agains. Boris Johnson said he has withdrawn from Monday's contest to replace Liz Truss, who was forced to resign after she launched an economic programme that triggered turmoil on financial markets Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become Britain's next prime minister.
  • Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday to buy yen for the second time in a month after the currency hit a 32-year low near 152 to the dollar, a government official and another person familiar with the matter told Reuters. Japan has been attempting to shore up the battered currency as the central bank sticks with ultra-low interest rates, countering a global trend of tightening monetary policy and widening the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates. Kishida declined to comment further, saying, "I will not make any detailed comments on forex" when asked about Friday's intervention. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, also declined to say whether the MOF had intervened. He added that the ministry would not confirm whether an intervention had taken place for some time yet, signalling possible "stealth intervention" to engage in a war of nerves against investors selling the yen. The MOF also bought yen on Sept. 22, as investors focussed on the widening divergence between the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy and the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and Kanda have repeatedly signalled the government's readiness to intervene, warning against excessive volatility. Suzuki said before the intervention on Friday the authorities were ready to act "strictly" against speculators. Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.
  • Oil prices slid more than 1% on Monday after Chinese data showed that demand from the world's largest crude importer remained lacklustre in September as strict COVID-19 policies and fuel export curbs depressed consumption Although higher than in August, China's September crude imports of 9.79 million barrels per day were 2% below a year earlier, customs data showed on Monday, as independent refiners curbed throughput amid thin margins and lacklustre demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia were neck and neck as China's top two suppliers in September. Uncertainty over China's zero-COVID policy and property crisis are undermining the effectiveness of pro-growth measures, ING analysts said in a note, even though third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth beat expectations. The GDP data came a day after China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. Brent rose last week despite U.S. President Joe Biden announcing the sale of a remaining 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The sale is part of a record 180 million-barrel release that began in May. Biden added that his aim would be to replenish stocks when U.S. crude is around $70 a barrel. Last week, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for the second week in a row as relatively high oil prices encourage firms to drill more, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in a report on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th October 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,660-1,670 1,679 1,690-1,700
Silver-XAG 18.90-19.60 20.10-20.60 21.30-21.90
Crude Oil 85.85-87.90 88.50-89.40 90.30-91.10
EURO/USD 0.9860 0.9910-0.9970 1.0105-1.0129
GBP/USD 1.1370-1.1455 1.1495-1.1550 1.1610
USD/JPY 149.50-150.00 150.40 151.00-151.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th October 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,651-1,640 1,634-1,627 1614-1,600
Silver-XAG 18.30-17.80 17.50 17.10-16.60
Crude Oil 83.70-83.00 81.60 80.85-80.00
EURO/USD 0.9800-0.9740 0.9680-0.9610 0.9530-0.9440
GBP/USD 1.1295-1.1210 1.1150-1.1100 1.1020-1.0980
USD/JPY 149.00-148.00 147.50-146.90 145.95-145.30

Intra-Day Strategy (24th October 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1657.68/oz and low of $1617.21/oz. Gold is up by 1.820% at US$1657.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1660-1714 keeping stop loss closing above 1714, targeting 1651-1640-1628 and 1614-1600-1590. Buy in between 1641-1581 with risk below 1581, targeting 1660-1670-1679-1690.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,651-1,640
S2     1,634-1,627
S3     1614-1,600
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,660-1,670
R2     1,679
R3     1,690-1,700

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.239

Buy
20-DMA   1674.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1700.30

Sell
100-DMA   1738.67 Sell
200-DMA   1776.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.774 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.386 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$19.41/oz and low of US18.27/oz settled up by 3.722% at US$19.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 18.30-17.10, targeting 18.90-19.60-20.10 and 20.60-21.45-22.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 17.10. Sell in between 18.90-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 18.30-17.90 and 17.50-17.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.30-17.80
S2     17.50
S3     17.10-16.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.90-19.60
R2     20.10-20.60
R3     21.30-21.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.858 Buy
20-DMA   19.23 Buy
50-DMA   19.38 Sell
100-DMA   19.99 Sell
200-DMA   21.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$85.63/bbl, an intraday low of US$82.92/bbl, and settled up by 0.156% to close at US$84.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.85-89.40 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 83.70-83.00-81.60 and 80.85-80.00-79.10. Buy above 83.70-78.60 with risk daily closing below 78.60; targeting 85.90 an 87.90-88.50-89.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     83.70-83.00
S2     81.60
S3     80.85-80.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     85.85-87.90
R2     88.50-89.40
R3     90.30-91.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.231 Sell
20-DMA   85.36 Sell
50-DMA   87.40 Sell
100-DMA   91.10 Sell
200-DMA   91.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   42.825 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1820 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$0.9704/EUR, a high of US$0.9868/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.793% to close at US$0.9860/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which become immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 0.9860-1.0105, targeting 0.9740-0.9610-0.9550 and 0.9440-0.9400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0105. Buy above 0.9800-0.9390 with risk below 0.9390, targeting 0.9740-0.9800-0.9910 and 0.9995-1.0105.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     0.9800-0.9740
S2     0.9680-0.9610
S3     0.9530-0.9440

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     0.9860
R2     0.9910-0.9970
R3     1.0105-1.0129

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.142 Buy
20-DMA   0.9810 Sell
50-DMA   0.9926 Sell
100-DMA   1.0128 Sell
200-DMA   1.0472 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.1284 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1060/GBP, a high of US$1.1314/GBP, and settled the day up 0.686% to close at US$1.1298/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1295-1.0760 with a target of 1.1370-1.1395 and 1.1455-1.1495-1.1550 with stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1370-1.1610 with targets at 1.1295-1.1210-1.1150 and 1.0995-1.0910-1.0800| with stop loss should be 1.1610.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1295-1.1210
S2     1.1150-1.1100
S3     1.1020-1.0980

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1370-1.1455
R2     1.1495-1.1550
R3     1.1610

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.995

Buy
20-DMA   1.1216 Sell
50-DMA   1.1456 Sell
100-DMA   1.1796 Sell
200-DMA   1.2271 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.042 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY146.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY151.93/USD and settled the day down by 1.735% at JPY147.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 149.50-151.70 with risk above 151.70 targeting 149.50-18.00-147.50 and 146.90-145.95-145.30. Long positions above 149.00-143.00 with targets of 149.50 and 150.00-150.60 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     149.00-148.00
S2     147.50-146.90
S3     145.95-145.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     149.50-150.00
R2     150.40
R3     151.00-151.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   76.219 Buy
20-DMA   145.69 Buy
50-DMA   142.50 Buy
100-DMA   138.34 Buy
200-DMA   131.89 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   96.312 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.805 Sell

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