AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar stood close to a more than one-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, amid growing hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will shift to less aggressive interest rate hikes to temper recession risks. The euro peaked at $1.00935 ahead of an expected ECB rate hike later in the session, while sterling was at $1.1645 in early Asia trade, both their highest since Sept. 13, though they later pared gains and fell about 0.1% each. Meanwhile, the yen gained some footing ahead of Friday's policy decision by the Bank of Japan, rising to 145.11 per dollar, its highest since Oct. 21 It was last up 0.72% at 145.35 per dollar, perhaps buoyed by some speculation of a policy tweak by the BOJ, though most analysts expect it will keep ultra-low interest rates steady. Looking ahead to next week's FOMC meeting, markets are still expecting another 75 basis point (bps) hike, although sentiment is building that the Fed will opt for a smaller increase in December Housing data released this week, which showed that U.S. single-family home prices sank in August and sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in September, provided more evidence that the Fed's aggressive tightening cycle is already slowing the economy. Overnight, the Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike and said it was getting closer to the end of its historic tightening campaign. The main focus on Thursday will be a rate decision by the European Central Bank, with markets expecting it to deliver a 75 bps hike. Meanwhile, the Aussie gained 0.18% to $0.6507, as a red-hot inflation print stoked pressure for more aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Data released on Wednesday showed that Australian inflation raced to a 32-year high last quarter.
  • The dollar stood close to a more than one-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, amid growing hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will shift to less aggressive interest rate hikes to temper recession risks. Meanwhile, the yen gained some footing ahead of Friday's policy decision by the Bank of Japan, rising to 145.11 per dollar, its highest since Oct. 21. Looking ahead to next week's FOMC meeting, markets are still expecting another 75 basis point (bps) hike, although sentiment is building that the Fed will opt for a smaller increase in December. Housing data released this week, which showed that U.S. single-family home prices sank in August and sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in September, provided more evidence that the Fed's aggressive tightening cycle is already slowing the economy. Overnight, the Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike and said it was getting closer to the end of its historic tightening campaign. The main focus on Thursday will be a rate decision by the European Central Bank, with markets expecting it to deliver a 75 bps hike. Data released on Wednesday showed that Australian inflation raced to a 32-year high last quarter.
  • Oil prices dropped on Thursday, reversing a more-than-3% rally in the previous session, as lingering fears over slack demand in China outweighed optimism from record U.S. crude exports and a weaker U.S. dollar. U.S. crude stocks rose 2.6 million barrels last week, according to weekly government data on Wednesday, with crude exports rising to 5.1 million barrels a day, the most ever. Global investors dumped Chinese assets early this week on fears that ideology may increasingly trump growth under China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. The World Bank on Wednesday said it expects energy prices to decline by 11% in 2023 after this year's 60% surge following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although slower global growth and COVID restrictions in China could lead to a deeper fall. Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine "a special operation". The slide in oil prices comes despite the dollar's weakness which makes greenback-denominated crude less expensive for other currency holders. The dollar stood close to a more than one-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, amid growing hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will shift to less aggressive interest rate hikes to temper recession risks. Meanwhile, U.S. and Western officials are finalising plans to impose a cap on Russian oil prices amid a warning from the World Bank that any plan will need active participation of emerging market economies to be effective. Officials said no price range has been decided yet, however one person familiar with the process said the cap will be determined in line with the historical average of $63-64 a barrel - a level that could form a natural upper limit.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th October 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,670-1,679 1,690 1,700-1,726
Silver-XAG 19.70-20.10 20.60 21.30-21.90
Crude Oil 87.90-88.50 89.40 90.30-91.10
EURO/USD 1.0099-1.0105 1.0129 1.0197-1.0364
GBP/USD 1.1610-1.1670 1.1725 1.1780-1.1820
USD/JPY 145.95-147.00 147.50-148.00 148.80-149.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th October 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,660-1,648 1,640-1,634 1,627–1,614
Silver-XAG 18.90-18.30 17.80-17.50 17.10-16.60
Crude Oil 85.85-83.70 83.00-81.60 80.85-80.00
EURO/USD 0.9990-0.9910 0.9860-0.9800 0.9740-0.9680
GBP/USD 1.1550-1.1495 1.1455-1.1370 1.1270-1.1210
USD/JPY 145.30-144.50 143.80 143.40-142.50

Intra-Day Strategy (27th October 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1674.85/oz and low of $1649.67/oz. Gold is up by 0.212% at US$1664.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1670-1714 keeping stop loss closing above 1714, targeting 1660-1651-1640 and 1628-1614-1600. Buy in between 1660-1600 with risk below 1581, targeting 1670-1679-1690 and 1700-1714-1728.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,660-1,648
S2     1,640-1,634
S3     1,627–1,614
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,670-1,679
R2     1,690
R3     1,700-1,726

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.239

Buy
20-DMA   1674.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1700.30

Sell
100-DMA   1738.67 Sell
200-DMA   1776.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.774 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.386 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$19.76/oz and low of US19.20/oz settled up by 1.236% at US$19.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 19.50-17.10, targeting 19.60-20.10 and 20.60-21.45-22.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 17.10. Sell in between 19.70-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 18.90-18.30-17.90 and 17.50-17.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.90-18.30
S2     17.80-17.50
S3     17.10-16.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.70-20.10
R2     20.60
R3     21.30-21.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.858 Buy
20-DMA   19.23 Buy
50-DMA   19.38 Sell
100-DMA   19.99 Sell
200-DMA   21.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$87.97/bbl, an intraday low of US$83.82/bbl, and settled up by 3.698% to close at US$87.88/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 87.90-91.40 with stop loss at 91.40; targeting 85.85-83.70-83.00 and 81.60-80.85-80.00. Buy above 87.10-78.60 with risk daily closing below 78.60; targeting 87.90-88.50-89.40 and 90.30-91.10

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     85.85-83.70
S2     83.00-81.60
S3     80.85-80.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     87.90-88.50
R2     89.40
R3     90.30-91.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.494 Sell
20-DMA   85.59 Sell
50-DMA   87.12 Sell
100-DMA   90.59 Sell
200-DMA   91.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.843 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.29 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$0.9943/EUR, a high of US$1.0088/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.163% to close at US$1.0079/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0099-1.0364, targeting 0.9990-0.9910-0.9860 and 0.9740-0.9610-0.9550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0105. Buy above 0.9990-0.9610 with risk below 0.9610, targeting 1.0099-1.0105 and 1.0130-1.0195.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     0.9990-0.9910
S2     0.9860-0.9800
S3     0.9740-0.9680

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0099-1.0105
R2     1.0129
R3     1.0197-1.0364

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.043 Buy
20-DMA   0.9843 Sell
50-DMA   0.9915 Sell
100-DMA   1.0099 Sell
200-DMA   1.0437 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.423 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1429/GBP, a high of US$1.1638/GBP, and settled the day up 1.349% to close at US$1.1616/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1550-1.1100 with a target of 1.1610 and 1.1670-1.1725 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1610-1.1825 with targets at 1.1550-1.1495-1.1455 and 1.1370-1.1295-1.1210 with stop loss should be 1.1825.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1550-1.1495
S2     1.1455-1.1370
S3     1.1270-1.1210

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1670
R2     1.1725
R3     1.1780-1.1820

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.995

Buy
20-DMA   1.1216 Sell
50-DMA   1.1456 Sell
100-DMA   1.1796 Sell
200-DMA   1.2271 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.042 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY146.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY148.40/USD and settled the day down by 0.640% at JPY146.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.00-151.70 with risk above 151.70 targeting 147.50 and 146.90-145.95-145.30. Long positions above 147.50-143.00 with targets of 149.50 and 150.00-150.60 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     145.30-144.50
S2     143.80
S3     143.40-142.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     145.95-147.00
R2     147.50-148.00
R3     148.80-149.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.661 Buy
20-DMA   145.99 Buy
50-DMA   143.81 Buy
100-DMA   139.51 Buy
200-DMA   132.87 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.537 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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