AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar lost some of its overnight gains ahead of U.S. inflation data due later on Thursday, while cryptocurrencies stayed under pressure as crypto exchange Binance abandoned a bailout bid for its ailing smaller rival FTX. The greenback surged overnight against its peers but pared some of those gains in Asia trade, with the Japanese yen inching closer toward its roughly two-week high hit in the previous session. The yen last bought 146.11 per dollar All eyes are now on U.S. inflation figures due later on Thursday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the headline consumer price index to show an 8% year-on-year rise in October. The dollar has lost some steam over the past few weeks on hopes that the Fed could begin making smaller interest rate hikes from as soon as December. Latest results from the U.S. midterm elections showed that Republicans were edging closer to securing a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, while control of the Senate hung in the balance, after Democrats performed well enough to stop a Republican "red wave".
  • Asian stock markets fell on Thursday amid growing concerns over an economic slowdown in China, while a crash in the crypto market also dampened sentiment ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data that is expected to factor into monetary policy. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks fell the most among their peers, as investors continued to pull out strong gains made in the last week. Chinese authorities denied that the country has any plans to loosen its strict anti-COVID policies, sapping local markets of any upward momentum. The Hang Seng was dealt a double whammy of worsening Chinese sentiment and aversion to heavyweight technology stocks, which make up a bulk of the index. Chinese stocks rallied sharply last week on unfounded speculation that the country plans to loosen its strict zero-COVID policy, which is at the heart of its economic woes this year. But with this notion being dismissed by the government, markets are expected to swiftly unwind last week’s gains. Weakness in China spilled over into most regional markets, with sentiment also worsened by an ongoing crash in the crypto market. South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped 0.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index shed 1%. Markets were now cautiously positioning for U.S. CPI inflation data due later in the day. The reading is expected to show that U.S. price pressures showed little signs of easing in October, giving the Federal Reserve more impetus to keep hiking interest rates. While expectations are growing that the Fed will hike rates at a slower pace from December, rates are also expected to peak at higher levels than initially expected. Asian stocks were also dealt a weak lead-in from Wall Street, which slumped in overnight trade amid uncertainty over the U.S. midterm elections. While the Republicans did not gain as many seats as expected, they are still set to take both houses of Congress.
  • Gold prices trimmed recent gains on Thursday, but remained pinned near a one-month high amid uncertainty over the U.S. midterm elections and as markets awaited key inflation data from the country later in the day. Bullion prices logged strong gains this week as the dollar retreated in the run-up to the elections, with initial results showing that the Republicans were still favored to win both houses of Congress, although Democrats performed better than expected. With vote counting for several states still underway, the results of the election remain uncertain in what appears to be a tight race. Gold prices benefited from some safe haven demand, as doubts over the direction of U.S. fiscal policy dented the dollar and broader stock and currency markets. Focus now turns to U.S. CPI data, which is expected to show that inflation stuck near 40-year highs through October. The reading is widely expected to factor into the path of U.S. monetary policy in the near-term. But several Federal Reserve members are now calling for smaller interest rate hikes. On Wednesday, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, called on the bank to adjust its rate hikes and avoid the potential economic fallout from raising rates too high Markets are pricing in a 66% chance that the central bank will raise rates by a smaller 50 basis points in December. While smaller rate hikes will provide some relief to metal markets, the notion that rates will peak at higher-than-expected levels is expected to keep sentiment dulled in the medium-term. China’s top copper companies are reportedly urging the government to mine more of the red metal amid growing concerns over disruptions to global supply. The move comes as mining disruptions in Chile and Peru, coupled with U.S. sanctions on Russian producers, have tightened global copper markets. This tightening in supply could benefit copper prices in the medium-term, with demand for the material also expected to heat up thanks to the electric vehicle industry.
  • Oil prices steadied on Thursday after falling for three days as the impact of renewed COVID curbs in China, the world's biggest crude importer, weighed and traders await U.S. inflation data that may give direction on further interest rate increases. The manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, a city of 19 million people, on Thursday reported more than 2,000 new cases for Nov. 9, the third day above that level, in the city's worst outbreak so far. Millions of residents were told to get tested for COVID-19 on Wednesday, and one city district has been locked down, as local cases across China reached their highest since April 30. Consumer price index (CPI) data for the United States will be released later on Thursday that is expected to show a slowdown in the inflation rate for both the monthly and yearly core numbers. That may lead the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce the size of their planned interest rate increases which would be considered a postive for economic and oil demand growth. Prices were also under pressure after a big build in U.S. crude inventories reported on Wednesday. Crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, taking inventories to their highest since July 2021 However, gasoline inventories fell by 900,000 barrels to their lowest since November 2014 and distillate stockpiles fell by 500,000 barrels. Bearishness around the rise in U.S. crude oil stockpiles may have been overdone, Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said. He noted that distillate stockpiles, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, fell to their lowest in a decade and the number of days those inventories can meet expected demand is at 26, nearly five days below the five-year average, "indicating much tighter conditions than U.S. oil or gasoline markets". In a note to clients, Dhar forecasts that Brent will average about $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter as oil markets will tighten following the implementation of the European Union's planned ban on Russian seaborne oil imports starting on Dec. 5 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,716-1,724 1,736 1,750-1,759
Silver-XAG 21.90-22.50 23.00 23.30-23.70
Crude Oil 85.85-87.00 87.90-88.90 89.60-90.30
EURO/USD 1.0099 1.0105 1.0150-1.0195
GBP/USD 1.1455-1.1495 1.1610 1.1680-1.1750
USD/JPY 147.00-147.50 148.00-148.80 149.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700-1,690 1,679-1,667 1,652-1,640
Silver-XAG 21.05-20.70 20.10-19.80 18.90-18.30
Crude Oil 84.45-83.70 82.55-81.20 80.70-79.70
EURO/USD 0.9960-0.9910 0.9800-0.9740 0.9680- 0.9600
GBP/USD 1.1350-1.1310 1.1270-1.1210 1.1150-1.1095
USD/JPY 145.70-145.30 144.50-143.80 143.00-142.10

Intra-Day Strategy (10th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1722.24/oz and low of $1702.06/oz. Gold is down by 0.309% at US$1706.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1716 keeping stop loss closing above 1716, targeting 1700-1690-1670 and 1652-1640-1628. Buy in between 1700-1640 with risk below 1640, targeting 1716-1734-1736 and 1750-1759.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700-1,690
S2     1,679-1,667
S3     1,652-1,640
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,716-1,724
R2     1,736
R3     1,750-1,759

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.402

Buy
20-DMA   1667.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1681.35

Sell
100-DMA   1716.74 Sell
200-DMA   1759.19 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   93.742 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   3.137 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$21.59/oz and low of US20.98/oz settled down by 1.312% at US$21.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.10-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.90-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.05-20.70
S2     20.10-19.80
S3     18.90-18.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.90-22.50
R2     23.00
R3     23.30-23.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.179 Buy
20-DMA   19.88 Buy
50-DMA   19.59 Buy
100-DMA   19.93 Buy
200-DMA   20.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$88.47/bbl, an intraday low of US$84.85/bbl, and settled down by 3.12% to close at US$84.98/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.85-93.40 with stop loss at 93.40; targeting 87.90-85.85-83.70 and 82.55-81.10. Buy above 84.45-79.70 with risk daily closing below 79.50; targeting 85.85-87.00-87.90 and 88.90-89.60-91.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     84.45-83.70
S2     82.55-81.20
S3     80.70-79.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     85.85-87.00
R2     87.90-88.90
R3     89.60-90.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.910 Sell
20-DMA   86.93 Buy
50-DMA   87.35 Buy
100-DMA   90.09 Sell
200-DMA   90.74 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.29 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$0.9992/EUR, a high of US$1.0087/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.282% to close at US$1.0004/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 0.9910-1.0364, targeting 0.9860 and 0.9740-0.9610-0.9550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0105. Buy above 0.9860-0.9610 with risk below 0.9610, targeting 1.0099-1.0105 and 1.0130-1.0195.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     0.9960-0.9910
S2     0.9800-0.9740
S3     0.9680- 0.9600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0099
R2     1.0105
R3     1.0150-1.0195

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.784 Buy
20-DMA   0.9874 Sell
50-DMA   0.9912 Sell
100-DMA   1.0071 Sell
200-DMA   1.0396 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1333/GBP, a high of US$1.1566/GBP, and settled the day down 1.55% to close at US$1.1356/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1390-1.1100 with a target of 1.1370-1.1455-1.1610 and 1.1670-1.1725 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1450-1.1825 with targets at 1.1370-1.1310-1.1270 and 1.1210-1.1150 with stop loss should be 1.1825.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1350-1.1310
S2     1.1270-1.1210
S3     1.1150-1.1095

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1455-1.1495
R2     1.1610
R3     1.1680-1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.206

Buy
20-DMA   1.1390 Sell
50-DMA   1.1433 Sell
100-DMA   1.1678 Sell
200-DMA   1.2128 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.558 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY145.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY146.79/USD and settled the day up by 0.549% at JPY146.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.00-151.70 with risk above 151.70 targeting 145.70-145.30-144.50 and 143.80-143.00-142.10. Long positions above 145.30-142.10 with targets of 147.00-148.00-148.80 and 149.50-150.00 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     145.70-145.30
S2     144.50-143.80
S3     143.00-142.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     147.00-147.50
R2     148.00-148.80
R3     149.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.661 Buy
20-DMA   145.99 Buy
50-DMA   143.81 Buy
100-DMA   139.51 Buy
200-DMA   132.87 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.537 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING