AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar fell across the board for a second straight day on Friday, as investors favoured riskier currencies following signs U.S. inflation is cooling that boosted the case for the Federal Reserve to ease off its hefty interest rate hikes. Friday's dollar weakness was an extension of the move set off after Thursday's data showed U.S. consumer inflation rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below forecasts for 8%. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was down about 3.8% over two sessions, on pace for its largest two-day percentage loss since March 2009 The U.S. currency's long rally over the last two years had drawn a host of dollar bulls leading to crowded positioning and Thursday's data left a lot of them looking for a quick exit, strategists said. Still, some strategists warned that dollar bears remain vulnerable to a possible near-term rebound. The dollar found little support from survey data on Friday that showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell in November, pulled down by persistent worries about inflation and higher borrowing costs. Investor risk appetite got an additional boost from Chinese health authorities easing some of the country's strict COVID-19 restrictions, including shortening quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travellers. Sterling, meanwhile, rose 1.22% against the dollar to $1.1853 after UK data showed the economy did not contract as much as expected in the three months to September, although it is still entering what is likely to be a lengthy recession. The dollar was 2.4% lower against the Swiss franc at 0.94025 francs after Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Friday the bank was prepared to take "all measures necessary" to bring inflation back down to its 0-2% target range. Cryptocurrencies remained under pressure from ongoing turmoil in the crypto world after exchange FTX's fall. FTX's native token, FTT, was last down 26.7% at $2.731, taking its month-to-date losses to nearly 90%.
  • Gold prices retreated from a 2-½ month high on Monday as comments from some members of the Federal Reserve suggested that the bank will continue to act tough against inflation, while copper prices fell slightly as investors locked in stellar gains from last week. Bullion prices logged their best week in 30 months after U.S. inflation read lower than expected for October, boosting hopes that the Fed will soften its hawkish stance in the coming months and reduce pressure on metal markets from rising interest rates. Expectations that the Fed will hike rates by a smaller 50 basis points in December grew substantially after the reading, with markets pricing in a nearly 81% chance of a smaller hike. But Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that while the bank is considering a slower pace of rate hikes, it should not be seen as softening in its battle against inflation. While October’s inflation reading was milder than expected, it was still well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. This is likely to see the bank keep raising interest rates, until it sees clear signs that inflation is easing. Elevated interest rates are expected to weigh on metal markets in the near-term. But the yellow metal is still down against the dollar this year, with prices down substantially from their annual peaks of over $2,000. The metal lost its safe haven status, and also largely failed as an inflation hedge this year as rising interest rates pushed up the cost of holding non-yielding assets. Among industrial metals, copper prices inched lower from a near five-month high, as investors collected profits from a bumper rally last week. Markets are now pricing in a potential reopening in China in 2023, which is expected to boost copper demand. Supply of the red metal is also expected to tighten in the coming months due to disruptions in major producers Chile and Peru.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, after China eased some of its strict COVID-19 protocols, fuelling hopes of a recovery in economic activity and demand at the world's top crude importer. Contracts for Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged up nearly 1% earlier in the session but later pared some gains. Brent crude futures were last up 31 cents, or 0.3%, to $96.30 a barrel by 0430 GMT after settling up 1.1% on Friday. Commodities prices rallied on Friday after China's National Health Commission adjusted its COVID prevention and control measures. But COVID cases climbed in China over the weekend. The easing curbs in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, included shortening quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travellers by two days, as well as eliminating a penalty on airlines for bringing in infected passengers. China's demand for oil from world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, also remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December. Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that India can continue buying as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it steers clear of Western insurance, finance and maritime services bound by the cap. However, a firmer dollar kept a lid on oil price gains. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has said it would take a string of soft reports for the bank to take its foot off the brakes on interest rate hikes which have been driving up the dollar and depressing prices of commodities priced in the greenback. On Indonesian island Bali ahead of the G20 summit, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet in person on Monday for the first time since Biden took office.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th November 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,766-1,774 1,781 1,790-1,800
Silver-XAG 21.90-22.50 23.00 23.30-23.70
Crude Oil 87.90-88.90 89.60-90.30 91.10-92.00
EURO/USD 1.0390-1.0450 1.0490-1.0520 1.0546
GBP/USD 1.1820 1.1870 1.1900-1.1950
USD/JPY 142.10-143.00 143.80-144.50 145.70-145.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th November 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,736 1,724-1,716 1,700-1,690
Silver-XAG 21.05-20.70 20.10-19.80 18.90-18.30
Crude Oil 87.00-85.85 84.45-83.70 82.55-81.20
EURO/USD 1.0290-1.0210 1.0150-1.0105 1.0099-1.0050
GBP/USD 1.1750-1.1680 1.1610-1.1495 1.1350-1.1310
USD/JPY 141.20-140.80 140.20-139.50 138.50-137.80

Intra-Day Strategy (14th November 2022)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1772.57/oz and low of $1747.16/oz. Gold is up by 0.908% at US$1771.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1766-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1750-1736-1700 and 1690-1670-1652. Buy in between 1750-1690 with risk below 1640, targeting 1766-1774-1781 and 1790-1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,750-1,736
S2     1,724-1,716
S3     1,700-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,766-1,774
R2     1,781
R3     1,790-1,800

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.920

Buy
20-DMA   1683.42 Sell
50-DMA  

1687.12

Sell
100-DMA   1718.28 Sell
200-DMA   1759.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.244 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   14.868 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$22.05/oz and low of US21.26/oz settled up by 0.217% at US$21.69/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.10-18.30, targeting 22.00-22.50-23.00 and 23.30-23.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.90-23.40 with stop loss above 23.40; targeting 21.30-20.70-20.10 and 19.80-18.90-18.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     21.05-20.70
S2     20.10-19.80
S3     18.90-18.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     21.90-22.50
R2     23.00
R3     23.30-23.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.179 Buy
20-DMA   19.88 Buy
50-DMA   19.59 Buy
100-DMA   19.93 Buy
200-DMA   20.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.110 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.112 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$89.31/bbl, an intraday low of US$85.46/bbl, and settled up by 3.12% to close at US$88.17/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 89.00-93.40 with stop loss at 93.40; targeting 87.00-85.85-84.45 and 83.70-82.55-81.20. Buy above 87.00-79.70 with risk daily closing below 79.50; targeting 87.90 and 88.90-89.60-91.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     87.00-85.85
S2     84.45-83.70
S3     82.55-81.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     87.90-88.90
R2     89.60-90.30
R3     91.10-92.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.927 Sell
20-DMA   87.16 Buy
50-DMA   87.42 Buy
100-DMA   90.02 Sell
200-DMA   90.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.501 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0162/EUR, a high of US$1.0363/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.035% to close at US$1.0350/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0365-1.0545, targeting 1.0290-1.0210-1.0150 and 1.0105-1.0099-1.0050 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0545. Buy above 1.0290-1.0050 with risk below 1.0050 targeting 1.0350-1.0390-1.0450 and 1.0490-1.0520-1.0546.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0290-1.0210
S2     1.0150-1.0105
S3     1.0099-1.0050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0390-1.0450
R2     1.0490-1.0520
R3     1.0546

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.784 Buy
20-DMA   0.9874 Sell
50-DMA   0.9912 Sell
100-DMA   1.0071 Sell
200-DMA   1.0396 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1645/GBP, a high of US$1.1855/GBP, and settled the day up 0.998% to close at US$1.1830/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2834) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in an oversold region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1750-1.1310 with a target of 1.1820-1.1870 and 1.1900-1.1950 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640 Sell in between 1.1820-1.1950 with targets at 1.1750-1.1680-1.1610-1.1495 and 1.1370-1.1310-1.1270 with stop loss should be 1.1825.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1680
S2     1.1610-1.1495
S3     1.1350-1.1310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1820
R2     1.1870
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.666

Buy
20-DMA   1.1440 Sell
50-DMA   1.1451 Sell
100-DMA   1.1677 Sell
200-DMA   1.2119 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.572 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.46/USD and made an intraday high of JPY142.47/USD and settled the day down by 1.545% at JPY138.77/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.00-151.70 with risk above 151.70 targeting 145.70-145.30-144.50 and 143.80-143.00-142.10. Long positions above 145.30-142.10 with targets of 147.00-148.00-148.80 and 149.50-150.00 with stops below 143.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     141.20-140.80
S2     140.20-139.50
S3     138.50-137.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     142.10-143.00
R2     143.80-144.50
R3     145.70-145.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.661 Buy
20-DMA   145.99 Buy
50-DMA   143.81 Buy
100-DMA   139.51 Buy
200-DMA   132.87 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.537 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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